Reality based coin-tosser method that beats 95% of traders in the world.

[jones247]

Use the Kelly criterion... wait for 2 or 3 consecutive losing days (these are days when the coin toss was wrong about the market's direction). After 2 or 3 losing days, then start trading using the Kelly criterion with favorable r:r ratio (i.e. 1:3)

 

[Whisky]

Quote from i4i:

What happens should you get a monster U-turn the following day where you initially find yourself in-the-money but end the day as a loser?

Keep trading the system rules sounds good to me.

Are you suggesting a change in the rules?.

 

[Whisky]

Quote from deaddog:

To keep losses at a minimum and let profits run; at the end of the day if you show a loss, get out. If you have a profit, hold the position. Let the prior days extreme be your exit.

Exit losers quickly and ride the trend.

This sounds pretty good, but the testing may prove otherwise. My gut feeling is that it will not work very well.

Do you want to test it yourself and see if you can make an extra tic per day on average?.

 

[Whisky]

Quote from jones247:

Use the Kelly criterion... wait for 2 or 3 consecutive losing days (these are days when the coin toss was wrong about the market's direction). After 2 or 3 losing days, then start trading using the Kelly criterion with favorable r:r ratio (i.e. 1:3)

This sounds pretty shitty, but the testing may prove otherwise. My gut feeling is that it will not work very well.

It could be less shitty if you replace the coin toss with a more advantageous logic, otherwise you are just wasting time by waiting for 2-3 consecutive losing days.

Do you want to test it yourself and see if you can make an extra tic per day on average?.

 

[deaddog]

Quote from Whisky:

This sounds pretty good, but the testing may prove otherwise. My gut feeling is that it will not work very well.

Do you want to test it yourself and see if you can make an extra tic per day on average?.

You call the first entry. You can follow your system and I'll follow mine. End of day exits will be @3:59

 

[TulsaTrader]

Reduce the cost of your "random number generator".

You're paying 25 cents per day.

Tell the bum to flip the coin 20 times and he/she can have it after that.

Record the results of the 20 coin flips.

Enter those into a system that will automatically open/close the positions.

Do this every 20 trading days.

You'll save $4.75 per 20 trading days and maybe some time.

 

[Whisky]

Quote from deaddog:

You call the first entry. You can follow your system and I'll follow mine. End of day exits will be @3:59

So you want to exit at 15:59 instead of at 16:15?. Are you trading SPY or something that closes at 16:00?.

I can't comply with your request, as all trading decisions in my system are made between 16:00 and 16:14 with executions a few seconds before 16:15.

 

[Whisky]

Quote from TulsaTrader:

Reduce the cost of your "random number generator".

You're paying 25 cents per day.

Tell the bum to flip the coin 20 times and he/she can have it after that.

Record the results of the 20 coin flips.

Enter those into a system that will automatically open/close the positions.

Do this every 20 trading days.

You'll save $4.75 per 20 trading days and maybe some time.

But then I will have advance knowledge of 19 coin flips and hence a bias. I would also be subject to front-running if the information leaks out somewhat. I think I prefer to keep it simple and give the bum his coin everyday. I'll cut on the beer instead.

 

[deaddog]

Quote from Whisky:

So you want to exit at 15:59 instead of at 16:15?. Are you trading SPY or something that closes at 16:00?.

I can't comply with your request, as all trading decisions in my system are made between 16:00 and 16:14 with executions a few seconds before 16:15.

I just set a time so that we were aware of when I would exit a trade. 16:14 is OK.

On the days I'm profitable I won't do anything except place a stop loss for the next day. It could get executed at any time, even in the overnight session.

 

[Whisky]

Quote from deaddog:

I just set a time so that we were aware of when I would exit a trade. 16:14 is OK.

On the days I'm profitable I won't do anything except place a stop loss for the next day. It could get executed at any time, even in the overnight session.

OK understood. I'll post the coin toss before 16:14, or you could also toss a coin yourself.