Realistic returns expectations of successful day trading

[bbpp]

Well, we still don’t know of even one $billionaire day trader
While if significantly less than 1% are successful then we may have what, a few hundred successful day traders? This would make the whole concept of a successful trader unrealistic and the “trading industry” non-existent, which actually it may be.
So we’d still have to go the 2nd solution and create some definition of a success trader (define them as someone turning $X into $Y within Z years), then calculate the annual % return based on that definition.

There are a lot of holes in your assumption:

1. Someone may not prefer to let people know when he become that kind of trader.
2.When someone make like 10 M or 100 M, he may use his capital to do other business;
3. When someone make 1M or 10 M, he may change his trading style and be more conservative. It is not that he can't do it anymore, but he just don't want to do high risk high reward thing after his capital grow too big.

Did you hear a Japanese who make 100 M in a few years by trading?

https://www.timothysykes.com/blog/the-day-trader-who-turned-13600-into-153-million/

Here is another one:
https://www.scmp.com/business/money...ry-day-trader-makes-millions-betting-japanese

 

[Scataphagos]

Well, we still don’t know of even one $billionaire day trader
While if significantly less than 1% are successful, then we may have a few hundred successful day traders? This would make the whole concept of a successful trader unrealistic and the “trading industry” non-existent, which actually it may be.
So we’d still have to go to the 2nd solution and create some definition of a success trader (define them as someone turning $X into $Y within Z years), then calculate the annual % return based on that definition.

There aren't any "$Billionaire day traders" for several reasons, not the least of which is that $1B is too much to logistically trade.

With enough experience, the market will allow you to make a "good" return fairly easily. But if you want to make a BIG return, that's different. You have to take big risks, be very sharp, and cope with the downsides.

 

[bbpp]

There aren't any "$Billionaire day traders" for several reasons, not the least of which is that $1B is too much to logistically trade.

With enough experience, the market will allow you to make a "good" return fairly easily. But if you want to make a BIG return, that's different. You have to take big risks, be very sharp, and cope with the downsides.

That is correct.
If you have more than 10 M ,it would be difficult to trade in and out fast enough to day trade.Even if you trade Forex, 10M is too big to daytrade.

 

[Scataphagos]

That is correct.
If you have more than 10 MM ,it would be difficult to trade in and out fast enough to day trade.Even if you trade Forex, 10M is too big to daytrade.

You can day trade stock index futures. In the ES, you can trade 200 lots (~$30 MM value) with minimal slippage. Lots of room for day traders up to let's say, $100MM... and ET ain't in that league just yet.

 

[bbpp]

You didn't consider leverage.
If you use $10000 for one contract( I use $5000), 200 contracts only require 2M capital.
So 10 M would require that you can get 1000 contracts fast in and out.

 

[guru]

There are a lot of holes in your assumption:

1. Someone may not prefer to let people know when he become that kind of trader.
2.When someone make like 10 MM or 100 MM, he may use his capital to do other business;
3. When someone make 1MM or 10 MM, he may change his trading style and be more conservative. It is not that he can't do it anymore, but he just don't want to do high risk high reward thing after his capital grow too big.

Did you hear a Japanese who make 100 MM in a few years by trading?

https://www.timothysykes.com/blog/the-day-trader-who-turned-13600-into-153-million/

Here is another one:
https://www.scmp.com/business/money...ry-day-trader-makes-millions-betting-japanese

Yes, most people heard of them and know that they don't make 500% every year, especially recently. Tim Sykes made his money more than 10 years ago and understands that penny stocks have limited capacity & liquidity, and he'd need to start over each year. He also helped SEC go after penny stock promoters and fraudulent CEOs 10 years ago, so today's opportunities are different anyway.
We also don't hear about CIS anymore, he was famous for short time and is not a billionaire. But yes, possibly he made 500% during some years, and he does not represent "realistic returns expectations of successful day trading" discussed here.

And I didn't say that my assessment is accurate and doesn't have holes. I specifically pointed holes in my own assessment!
But looks like you have very accurate and verifiable numbers, so please tell everyone what is the exact % that successful traders make, and without any "holes" in your assumptions.

 

[wrbtrader]

That is correct.
If you have more than 10 M ,it would be difficult to trade in and out fast enough to day trade.Even if you trade Forex, 10M is too big to daytrade.

Actually, its too big for a retail trader to trade.

In contrast, a veteran trader (professional trader) at a large institutional trading firm may be trading an account that large among other traders at the firm trading similar size accounts in different assets.

1mil to 10mil

Watched over by their compliance office although we hear stories once in awhile about some rogue trader at a financial institution losing 2x - 3x that amount with a compliance department at the firm.

wrbtrader

 

[Scataphagos]

You didn't consider leverage.
If you use $10000 for one contract( I use $5000), 200 contracts only require 2M capital.
So 10 M would require that you can get 1000 contracts fast in and out.

You can use whatever leverage you want up to the margin requirements of the contract.

I mentioned "200 lots" as a size one could negotiate the bid/ask DOM with minimal slippage.

You could do a 1000 lot trade ($150MM notional) right now with only about 1/2 point slippage on the entire trade.

 

[wrbtrader]

Well, we still don’t know of even one $billionaire day trader

There will never be a billionaire retail daytrader. As soon as they hit a few million...they'll cut back on their trading and enjoy more of life. It's just too stressful to continue at the same pace beyond a few million.

wrbtrader

 

[guru]

Actually, its too big for a retail trader to trade.

In contrast, a veteran trader (professional trader) at a large institutional trading firm may be trading an account that large among other traders at the firm trading similar size accounts in different assets.

1mil to 10mil

Watched over by their compliance office although we hear stories once in awhile about some rogue trader at a financial institution losing 2x - 3x that amount with a compliance department at the firm.

wrbtrader

Good info, but probably also confirms that they don't make 500%/year.
Do you know any approximate annual% they're capable of making?