just looked at some condos in miami .......its a total disaster.....a total wipe out.......they beg and beg you to buy
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Real Estates Black Hole Miami Condos 2008 To 2010
- Thread starter the gardner
- Start date
43 percent of miami condos have arms......fact
Still too expensive. I developed an excel formula which tells you the maximum amount you should spend on property. The problem is real estate recently has not been based on fundamentals. it will crash till it returns to fundamentals.
Interest rates (on traditional 30yr mortgage) plays the biggest role. But so does property taxes and insurance. Even overzealous homeowner associations could be a problem.
30yr fixed mortgage Interest rates have been rising very slowly. However property taxes and insurance have both doubled.
The idiots who bought on I/O ARM mortgages rather than fixed are getting slaughtered right now. There mortgage payments are being reset off LIBOR, and property taxes AND insurance has been soaring. Add to that all the bank-owned forclosed property currently on the market.
Pretty soon there is gonna be so much supply and an excellent buying oppurtunity. But not now
Interest rates (on traditional 30yr mortgage) plays the biggest role. But so does property taxes and insurance. Even overzealous homeowner associations could be a problem.
30yr fixed mortgage Interest rates have been rising very slowly. However property taxes and insurance have both doubled.
The idiots who bought on I/O ARM mortgages rather than fixed are getting slaughtered right now. There mortgage payments are being reset off LIBOR, and property taxes AND insurance has been soaring. Add to that all the bank-owned forclosed property currently on the market.
Pretty soon there is gonna be so much supply and an excellent buying oppurtunity. But not now
they can put ads in all the newspapers, at whatever prices they want, the only thing that matters to us as traders is what price crosses the tape. if you go to the county clerks office all prices at all locations have been trading at 6% to 60% lower.those are the facts
Quote from falcontrader:
prices at all locations have been trading at 6% to 60% lower.those are the facts
Huh? You sound like a cell phone Ad. "Switch to us and you'll save 60%."
All we care about is prices. So are you saying that property is selling 60% below what it was purchased for? If so, I'll call bullshit on your "facts."
Quote from the gardner:
ALL THE NUMBERS INDICATE THAT MANY OF THESE CONDOS WILL TRADE AT 50 TO 60 PERCENT DISCOUNTS FROM THEIR ORIGINAL LIST PRICE.......AND ONCE PURCHASED WILL NOT RISE IN VALUE FOR MANY YEARS .
THE FACT IS THE MIAMI CONDO MARKET IS CRASHING RIGHT NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO CRASH FOR AT LEAST TWO YEARS....
ANY LEVERAGED MONEY THAT WENT IN TO THAT MARKET IS GONE
VANISHED .THE CONDO MARKET IN MIAMI IS FOR NOW A BLACK HOLE IN THE FABRIC OF OUR ECONOMY
PLEASE DISCUSS
Don't know why anyone would live in Miami. Horrible hot weather, threat of storms, bums, panhandlers, scumy people, yankess from nyc, old people, not to mention everyone speaks spanish.
Miami is more South American then American.
John
I live and trade on South Beach and have been doing so since 2001. I am also from Detroit and spend each summer with my family up north.
Now... in the last 3 yrs u can not even begin to compare the 2 places.
Detroit is an absolute debacle. Miami is just starting to come down...but by no means are their "STEALS" just yet
I bought a place here in 2003, the same time a good buddy of mine bouth his place in Detroit for about the same price.
Since then my has doubled and now come down about 10%
His is probably the same price as when he bought it in 2003.
Outside of south beach though..its a different story...stuff has come down a lot more from the Peak.
the old addages with real estate hold true...Location, location, location
the good stuff may come down..but will never be "cheap" and relative strenght speaking will hold up
In Detroit for exampe..in Bloomfield HIlls, or homes on the lakes...they still have not gone down and in fact have actually gone up a little bit
I am now renting out my place to my sister and am moving into a bad as hell Townhouse that I'm renting for what it would cost me in Taxes and Maintaince ....as long as rentals stay this cheap...i'll probably be renting for a while as doesnt even makes sense to buy, borrow. I can use my cash to make money instead of paying interest.
MY apartment has turned into a hedge, but i'll join all the suckers and put it up for sale in a couple months(see if a snow bird bites thinking its a good deal in florida cause media makes it sound like prices here have cut in half)
That being said, as any trader knows...Stocks go up WAY HIGHER than u think in a boom (see April thru July of this year)
and go down WAY MORE than you expect (see PCU, TNH, all banks, etc in July-Aug) on their way down
Someone on ET wrote a good post earlier about when to buy a bottom.......when it starts turning....so i'm just gonna wait for that...take the risk out
Now... in the last 3 yrs u can not even begin to compare the 2 places.
Detroit is an absolute debacle. Miami is just starting to come down...but by no means are their "STEALS" just yet
I bought a place here in 2003, the same time a good buddy of mine bouth his place in Detroit for about the same price.
Since then my has doubled and now come down about 10%
His is probably the same price as when he bought it in 2003.
Outside of south beach though..its a different story...stuff has come down a lot more from the Peak.
the old addages with real estate hold true...Location, location, location
the good stuff may come down..but will never be "cheap" and relative strenght speaking will hold up
In Detroit for exampe..in Bloomfield HIlls, or homes on the lakes...they still have not gone down and in fact have actually gone up a little bit
I am now renting out my place to my sister and am moving into a bad as hell Townhouse that I'm renting for what it would cost me in Taxes and Maintaince ....as long as rentals stay this cheap...i'll probably be renting for a while as doesnt even makes sense to buy, borrow. I can use my cash to make money instead of paying interest.
MY apartment has turned into a hedge, but i'll join all the suckers and put it up for sale in a couple months(see if a snow bird bites thinking its a good deal in florida cause media makes it sound like prices here have cut in half)
That being said, as any trader knows...Stocks go up WAY HIGHER than u think in a boom (see April thru July of this year)
and go down WAY MORE than you expect (see PCU, TNH, all banks, etc in July-Aug) on their way down
Someone on ET wrote a good post earlier about when to buy a bottom.......when it starts turning....so i'm just gonna wait for that...take the risk out
I also think this is just the beginning down here as the new supply downtown will definatly put a Ceiling on price appreciation until the flippers are out and the end users are in.
Not much new construction on South Beach, so if i was buying I would buy South Beach and stay FAR away from Downtown...but like I said ....gonna be a while...the deals have not even started yet.
not much blood on the street yet (the resets and condo closing in the next 1-2 yrs will bring about the blood)
Not much new construction on South Beach, so if i was buying I would buy South Beach and stay FAR away from Downtown...but like I said ....gonna be a while...the deals have not even started yet.
not much blood on the street yet (the resets and condo closing in the next 1-2 yrs will bring about the blood)
Quote from the gardner:
ALL THE NUMBERS INDICATE THAT MANY OF THESE CONDOS WILL TRADE AT 50 TO 60 PERCENT DISCOUNTS FROM THEIR ORIGINAL LIST PRICE.......AND ONCE PURCHASED WILL NOT RISE IN VALUE FOR MANY YEARS .
THE FACT IS THE MIAMI CONDO MARKET IS CRASHING RIGHT NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO CRASH FOR AT LEAST TWO YEARS....
ANY LEVERAGED MONEY THAT WENT IN TO THAT MARKET IS GONE
VANISHED .THE CONDO MARKET IN MIAMI IS FOR NOW A BLACK HOLE IN THE FABRIC OF OUR ECONOMY
PLEASE DISCUSS
I live in Miami. And I never understood why so many condos in those areas of downtown (midtown etc..) It is not Manhattan. I knew it was bad news, no way that Miami can support so many condos at those prices in those areas. And to be honest I have no idea what is going to happen there I suspect a ghost town. Go down and drive around homestead and visit some of the ghost towns filled with new homes. 2008 is going to be an interesting year for the economy in general.
miami........is getting worse and worse
many of the south american buyers were flippers who are now in trouble.....some own 5 or 6 apts
take a look at the price reductions on CONDOVULTURES.COM
huge reductions....
one apt was 535 it just traded for 280k........
2 bed 2 bath killer view...new sleek building
many of the south american buyers were flippers who are now in trouble.....some own 5 or 6 apts
take a look at the price reductions on CONDOVULTURES.COM
huge reductions....
one apt was 535 it just traded for 280k........
2 bed 2 bath killer view...new sleek building