Real Estates Black Hole Miami Condos 2008 To 2010
- Thread starter the gardner
- Start date
it has been said that only 7000 condos were sold between 02 and today......and their are 8000 comming on the mkt this yr alone
its interesting to walk at night and look up at the buildings their all empty......vacant
eventually i would like to buy one...for 20 cents on the dollar...from a bank.
all of the benefits florida originally had have eroded...
insurance is high and going higher
taxes ...up up and up
maintance rising 5 6 percent a year
hurricane risk is nuts...ie cat 5
and global warming is no joke for floridas elevations
it really is going to get very bad
its interesting to walk at night and look up at the buildings their all empty......vacant
eventually i would like to buy one...for 20 cents on the dollar...from a bank.
all of the benefits florida originally had have eroded...
insurance is high and going higher
taxes ...up up and up
maintance rising 5 6 percent a year
hurricane risk is nuts...ie cat 5
and global warming is no joke for floridas elevations
it really is going to get very bad
I believe that was me commenting on the overall housing stocks (CFC) but it applies to any asset really including real estate.
I was commenting on how to play turn around stocks. Once again In a nut shell... Never try and pick bottoms. It isn't really about picking bottoms but how to smartly invest in turnaround plays. You end up getting close to the bottom without further downside risk by sacrificing a few $$$. You never know where bottoms may be and where prices end up. Stocks can go up up up(bubbles) and defy logic or anything resembling a fair valuation. Stocks can go down down down (bear market) to far lower levels than you can imagine.
Example. A $50 stock is cut in more than half say $20. The impatient foolish investor thinks this is a good buy, the stock has come down so much and it will come back. $20 is a great price, it was once fifty and it is a big name company and will turn around. Bad mistake to buy here. The stock can continue to fall further. That co may more than likely recover but the stock can wallow for months and months and you don't want to be caught in dead money at $20. Then the stock goes from $20 to $15 to $10 to $5. And You thought $20 was a great price!!! IS $5 the bottom? Who knows. Here is What you want to do...sacrifice some $ (which ends up being pennies) and buy when the trend reverses. Buy when there is light at the end of the tunnel when things begin to turnaround. When the news goes from terrible to some signs of improvement and the stocks and industry sector market turns around and begins it's up trend. You sacrifice some $$$ to see a clear view of the turnaround. You don't need to buy at $5 or even $10. Wait and be patient. The stock goes from $5 to10. You start buying at maybe $12, or even higher $15+ and the stock goes back up on its trend reversal to new highs and you let your profits run and you make nice money.
The problem is people are greedy, cheap, stupid and especially impatient and want to get THE BEST price. It is a natural instinct and psychological mistake of traders/investors. You don't need the best price and you will 99% of the time never get it. It does not matter. You still get a great price with lower downside risk or exposure and dead money for a few pennies in the end.
That condo that was $500K looks good at $375K. Wait it may bottom at $275K and you can buy it at $300K on the upswing back to $500K. You can see right on this board people ready to make mistakes in RE by being impatient. It is one of the most common investor/trader mistakes.
miami is uninsureable in the event of a major storm
damage estimates are upwards of 150 billion
insurance cos would go broke...as would many developers
it would be new orleans all over again
damage estimates are upwards of 150 billion
insurance cos would go broke...as would many developers
it would be new orleans all over again
i dont think so....the reason for 99% of the damage in NO was not the actual hurricane winds...it was the fact that they are below sea level and had to endure a massive flood from the surge and the broken levee's...im not saying that we couldnt get rocked, but we aint in that type of scenario....although had hurricane andrew hit dead on into south beach and the downtown area the number would have been double...more like $60 billion IMO