Re-opening Schools in the era of COVID
- Thread starter gwb-trading
- Start date
You're right, I didn't mean to put the "%" in there. But we agree on the number. So what is the CFR for Influenza and Pneumonia in this age group? Do you know it? How many kids under the age of 17 die from the flu or pneumonia every year?
There are 73.7 million children younger than 18 in the United States, accounting for 22.6 percent of the total population.
There have been 9.3 to 45 million cases of the flu each year since 2010 according to the CDC. The average is 27 million. 23% of these are typically children under 18 mirroring the U.S. population (60 million). The 2019/2020 flu season sickened 26 million people by February of this year.
Since 2004-2005, flu-related deaths in children reported to CDC during regular flu seasons have ranged from 37 to 188 deaths. 80% of these children were not vaccinated for the flu.
Let's take the high case for the seasonal flu
188 flu deaths / 60 million children = 0.000313% (IFR - Infection Fatality Rate).
However we are actually interested in the CFR (Case Fatality Rate) of the seasonal flu for children to make a proper comparison to this COVID study of school aged children. Or converting the COVID figures from the study to the projected IFR (Infection Fatality Rate) to make a comparison.
Based on COVID antibody tests the estimated number of COVID infections appears to be 10 times the number of tested cases. This would mean that the proper number of school children in the sample (including the cases) should be 277,285 + 2,772,850 = 3,050,135 projected COVID infections in school age children. This leads to a 0.00167% Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) for the COVID.
Seasonal Flu = 0.000313% (IFR )
COVID = 0.00167% (IFR)
So in summary it appears the COVID IFR for children is 5 times greater than for the seasonal flu.
Of course -- this is a rough calculation based on assumptions of the effective IFR. It should also be noted the flu data includes children under age 5 in the deaths which skews the data.
Bottom Line: The majority of the children who die of the flu (over 80%) do not take flu shots. Their parents can prevent many of these deaths simply by having their children vaccinated every season. COVID does not have a vaccine yet -- there is no protection against it medically -- therefore COVID is a risk with no medical prevention methods that can aid in making on-campus learning safe.
Thank you. So 52 children (under the age of 17 - children might be a bit misleading, but lets go with it) died out of all students in PreK-12 classes.
188 died during the flu. Whether or not they are vaccinated is irrelevant.
Neither one of these warrants shuttering school for the nearly 74 million students. It's really that simple.
You can talk about how COVID is five times more likely to kill a child than the flu. You can even make the font very big and colorful to emphasize your point.
But 52 kids died. That's it. 74 million kids go to some form of school (or there abouts). And you want to keep all of them home to protect the 52. This assumes that these kids wouldn't die anyway from getting COVID at the playground, or somewhere else that kids tend to go and mingle.
It is mentally ill to even suggest such an idea.
According to the CDC and WHO experts --- whether a child was vaccinated or not is very pertinent in regards to the seasonal flu. A child who is not vaccinated is many more times likely to die than a child who is not vaccinated --- getting a simple vaccination greatly reduces the hospitalization and death probabilities. There is no such option with COVID.
Great, and given the risk that 188 students die from the flu, why has there been no such governmental push or restriction to send students to school only if they are vaccinated (as we do with other infection diseases)? I mean, if it is about protecting the children.
You still did not answer the other question, though. You believe that we should restrict 74 million students from school (this is an estimate as probably a small amount are home schooled) to protect the lives of 52 kids?
Actually in some states there has been an effort to only allow kids to attend public school if they have the flu vaccine. North Carolina has a pending bill. Other states now have it as a requirement. Enough of the nonsense from anti-vaxer parents; states are buckling down on "exemptions" on other vaccinations and also requiring the flu vaccination.
Massachusetts will require flu vaccines for public school students
https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/20/us/massachusetts-flu-vaccine-students-trnd/index.html
Several States May Require Kids to Get a Flu Vaccine Ahead of Coronavirus School Reopenings
Earlier this month, Massachusetts became the first state to require that all students get a flu shot, and New Jersey is considering similar legislation
https://people.com/health/push-flu-vaccine-mandates-coronavirus-school-reopenings/
This actually is usually associated with flu vaccine mandates to attend pre-K or child care. Here is the list of states with the requirement. It is only a small number.
https://www.immunize.org/laws/flu_childcare.asp
Now in regards to your other question. Every other western country has issued clear federal guidelines on the requirements for having children in school -- including the safety precautions, distancing, sanitation, closing criteria, and community COVID prevalence levels for schools to open/close. The CDC in the U.S. attempted to put forward school opening guidelines aligned with these principles -- but Trump nixed it saying they were "too tough".
When every school in the nation follows basic safety criteria then the children in our nation should be back in school. There are clear benefits to in-person schooling over virtual. A small number of children with significant medical issues should still be remote. Keep in mind that safety criteria will only have 1/3 or 1/2 of the students attending school in-person per week on a rotating schedule while other cohorts of children will be remote on particular weeks (or possibly daily schedule).
Until we have clear common guidelines that every school system in the nation is required to follow --- then no students should be in K-12 school We have schools out there in states right now with the highest level of spread which have full classes with no masks and no safety precautions whatsoever.
Actually in some states there has been an effort to only allow kids to attend public school if they have the flu vaccine. North Carolina has a pending bill. Other states now have it as a requirement. Enough of the nonsense from anti-vaxer parents; states are buckling down on "exemptions" on other vaccinations and also requiring the flu vaccination.
Massachusetts will require flu vaccines for public school students
https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/20/us/massachusetts-flu-vaccine-students-trnd/index.html
Several States May Require Kids to Get a Flu Vaccine Ahead of Coronavirus School Reopenings
Earlier this month, Massachusetts became the first state to require that all students get a flu shot, and New Jersey is considering similar legislation
https://people.com/health/push-flu-vaccine-mandates-coronavirus-school-reopenings/
This actually is usually associated with flu vaccine mandates to attend pre-K or child care. Here is the list of states with the requirement. It is only a small number.
https://www.immunize.org/laws/flu_childcare.asp
Now in regards to your other question. Every other western country has issued clear federal guidelines on the requirements for having children in school -- including the safety precautions, distancing, sanitation, closing criteria, and community COVID prevalence levels for schools to open/close. The CDC in the U.S. attempted to put forward school opening guidelines aligned with these principles -- but Trump nixed it saying they were "too tough".
When every school in the nation follows basic safety criteria then the children in our nation should be back in school. There are clear benefits to in-person schooling over virtual. A small number of children with significant medical issues should still be remote. Keep in mind that safety criteria will only have 1/3 or 1/2 of the students attending school in-person per week on a rotating schedule while other cohorts of children will be remote on particular weeks (or possibly daily schedule).
Until we have clear common guidelines that every school system in the nation is required to follow --- then no students should be in K-12 school We have schools out there in states right now with the highest level of spread which have full classes with no masks and no safety precautions whatsoever.
So these flu vaccination mandates you referred to - all of a sudden its an issue? How many years have we had the flu and suddenly its an issue? And its only a small number of states.
Are you going to answer the question on whether we should restrict 74 million kids because 52 die?
51 in the study group of 277,285 COVID cases have died. Many more than 51 school aged children have died of COVID in the U.S.
As I stated earlier in my previous post -- until our nation provides clear federal COVID safety guidelines aligned with the best public health practices that all school systems must follow then not a single student should be back in public school.
In North Carolina a bill(s) requiring flu shots for public schools has been on-hold for over 20 years thanks to anti-vaxer parents railing against it. Keep in mind that this bill (and similar ones in other states) are backed by many mainstream medical associations. We are not the only state with this problem of anti-vaxer parents stopping progress on this and other vaccination bills.
It's high-time we brought back the mandatory vaccination cards for school enrollment.
I remember my vaccination card from when I was little. It had the MMR, small pox, whooping cough, and I don't recall what else, but it had a good handful. It's too bad they didn't have the chicken pox vaccine back then, because I got the C-Pox as a youngin'. So now I have to consider getting the shingles vaccine, because I don't want that crap. C-Pox was annoying, but not as bad as shingles can be, from what I hear from a relative that got it.
I remember my vaccination card from when I was little. It had the MMR, small pox, whooping cough, and I don't recall what else, but it had a good handful. It's too bad they didn't have the chicken pox vaccine back then, because I got the C-Pox as a youngin'. So now I have to consider getting the shingles vaccine, because I don't want that crap. C-Pox was annoying, but not as bad as shingles can be, from what I hear from a relative that got it.