RBOB

Deuteronomy_24_7 · Nov 1, 2016

Just like a rap song... it's always the hoe's fault.

Zzzz1 · Nov 1, 2016

Took profit in 2/3 of my position just now at 1.4829. Set a limit buy at 1.4500 for the remaining size. Others may need to drive their cars for a few days to exit their long position in gasoline.

Zzzz1 said:
I talked to a friend of mine who trades distillates and what I mentioned above is what I heard from him at 8:31pm (ET), I subsequently took a short position in RB Dec16 shortly after 9:00pm (ET) at an avg price of 1.5749. I was in the red since then and as we speak the price for the first time dipped below my entry. Not all information we have now was available then but it is confirmed that the accident happened at a pipeline structure.

But I openly raise my hand and admit I was incorrect in my earlier post saying it was related to the refinery explosion as there was none, it was an accident during work, performed at the pipeline. I guess I fell victim to someone else's anger outburst and was more focused on trading direction than the precise terminology.

FCXoptions · Nov 1, 2016

i960 said:
Where are you guys getting refinery explosion? It was a pipeline.

My bad, I read the headline awhile before and didn't think anything about it. I was thinking it said refinery for some reason not pipeline when I posted.

Overnight · Nov 1, 2016

If the gasoline pipeline which feeds 1/3 the USA goes boom, what would one expect gasoline futures to do? Go down? No. Less supply, so prices jack up. Which they did. Not sure why there is an argument here about the movement of price.

Overnight · Nov 1, 2016

Now, let's follow this through logically. This week's CL numbers will reflect last week. But next week's number may show an increased CL demand because of all the gasoline lost in yesterday's explosion, so refiners need to consume more crude to refine to petrol. And petrol inventories should show a decrease. However, we still have the OPEC meeting hanging over our heads at end of month, and Iran/Iraq are starting to waffle on the production-cut deal.

So what can be gleaned from these facts? Go long short-term (next two weeks) then stay out before meeting? Tough call.

Zzzz1 · Nov 1, 2016

The argument was about whether to go long or short 4.5 hours after the fact (the time of the OP) when prices were already up 10% or so. That's a multi standard deviation move.

Overnight said:
If the gasoline pipeline which feeds 1/3 the USA goes boom, what would one expect gasoline futures to do? Go down? No. Less supply, so prices jack up. Which they did. Not sure why there is an argument here about the movement of price.

1shooter · Nov 1, 2016

It only affects a small area of the country and should not affect the overall price of crude. Gas supply will be affected in some parts of the country but not all. This overall is a fairly minor problem and gas prices should re stabilize fairly quickly 2 weeks probably.

Zzzz1 · Nov 2, 2016

Decided to cancel my remaining limit buy and instead took profit just now on the remainder of the position and got filled at and avg of 1.4598x. (Posted a few seconds after my fills)

Zzzz1 said:
Took profit in 2/3 of my position just now at 1.4829. Set a limit buy at 1.4500 for the remaining size. Others may need to drive their cars for a few days to exit their long position in gasoline.

CET · Nov 2, 2016

1shooter said:
It only affects a small area of the country and should not affect the overall price of crude. Gas supply will be affected in some parts of the country but not all. This overall is a fairly minor problem and gas prices should re stabilize fairly quickly 2 weeks probably.

The line may be back in service by the weekend according to last report. FWIW this is the main supply for the whole east coast, so it is a major issue. Don't trade anything energy related if you don't have a clue about the details of the sector.

Zzzz1 · Nov 2, 2016

What are you talking about? The story is done, prices of gasoline reverted back to their previous levels. There were some terrific opportunities to trade this anomaly.

CET said:
The line may be back in service by the weekend according to last report. FWIW this is the main supply for the whole east coast, so it is a major issue. Don't trade anything energy related if you don't have a clue about the details of the sector.