Ramblings of a degenerate gambler
- Thread starter Millionaire
- Start date
Hello smallfil,
How many trades (XXX-X,XXX amount) should I forward test in Simulation by hand to tell me if my trading strategy has an edge please?
Thank you,
@destriero , put your money where you mouth is, how much you wanna bet all those blotters I posted are from a live (real money not demo) IB account?
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Todays blotter, losses, not pretty, my new M1 Mac (which i bought with last weeks profits!) takes bigger screen grabs for some reason, compared to my old Mac.
-$1717 plus $161 paid to IB in commissions for a loss of almost $1900
The -1276 is todays losses in GBP.
It was a horrible day, i felt like quiting this experiment completely when i was down almost $5000, but i live on to fight at least one more day.
On a seperate note, my Algo accounts did make some money today.
But i personally played the action from both sides (short intially then went long). And paid the price for initially fighting the trend. I switched to long pretty early but kept getting shaken/scared out on my longs and my losses doubled.
The small MES trade was a mistake, I clicked on the wrong ticker.
-$1717 plus $161 paid to IB in commissions for a loss of almost $1900
The -1276 is todays losses in GBP.
It was a horrible day, i felt like quiting this experiment completely when i was down almost $5000, but i live on to fight at least one more day.
On a seperate note, my Algo accounts did make some money today.
But i personally played the action from both sides (short intially then went long). And paid the price for initially fighting the trend. I switched to long pretty early but kept getting shaken/scared out on my longs and my losses doubled.
The small MES trade was a mistake, I clicked on the wrong ticker.
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Probably, at least 200 trades, much better if you have 500 trades to backtest it. Pretty easy to do in a simulator to place numerous trades all at once. Much more work on the trading log to see how many winners vs losers, average winning trade, average losing trade, winning and losing percentage. Use Excel to calculate those figures. If your expectation is positive, you have a good trading system. If not, your trading system is no good. Try again.
Seems like the large ES trade was the mistake, because the small MES trade was profitable!
Does it matter in the context of this thread?