I'm intrigued where Dest gets his info from.
Ramblings of a degenerate gambler
- Thread starter Millionaire
- Start date
Your posts are consistent, nothing wrong with logic/decisions or explanation, I don't smell any bs either.
I believe you that this account is real if that matters.
Thought I'll post this to balance out the picture. I bet many people enjoy reading this journal just like me. This is exactly how stuff works. Discretionary day trading likes volatility. When there is fear in the market there are way more easy pickings.
Done for the day, +$1053. Not bad for an hours work 
I traded MNQ instead of NQ today, so i could scale in
Doing that feels less like gambling.
A single 1 lot trade in RTY bought home most of the bacon today.
Have made back my -$1900 loss from Monday. New High water mark for this Journal.
Day1: +$2200
Day2: +$1200
Day3: +$2200
Day4: +$1800
Day5: +$1400
Day6: +$2000
Day7: -$1900
Day8: +$1000
Day9: +$1000
That loss on Monday actually humbled me and made me trade more conservatively this last two days.
I dont feel i have really 'gambled' much in the last two days. I still don't use a stop loss and am still trading from the gut/intuition. But haven't been putting on massive positions, nothing over $250K notional in the last two days.
On Monday i had a 3 lot NQ positions on, the volatility in my PnL was a bit insane, -$5000 a one point. 3 NQ lots is almost $1 million notional.
Luckily IB have high margin requirements, they didn't let me add any more lots.
I traded MNQ instead of NQ today, so i could scale in
Doing that feels less like gambling.
A single 1 lot trade in RTY bought home most of the bacon today.
Have made back my -$1900 loss from Monday. New High water mark for this Journal.
Day1: +$2200
Day2: +$1200
Day3: +$2200
Day4: +$1800
Day5: +$1400
Day6: +$2000
Day7: -$1900
Day8: +$1000
Day9: +$1000
That loss on Monday actually humbled me and made me trade more conservatively this last two days.
I dont feel i have really 'gambled' much in the last two days. I still don't use a stop loss and am still trading from the gut/intuition. But haven't been putting on massive positions, nothing over $250K notional in the last two days.
On Monday i had a 3 lot NQ positions on, the volatility in my PnL was a bit insane, -$5000 a one point. 3 NQ lots is almost $1 million notional.
Luckily IB have high margin requirements, they didn't let me add any more lots.
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I think its a little tongue in cheek,
but do you think being a little more disciplined, more calculating, that makes it less gambling?From my point of view, the more disciplined and calculating makes for a more professional gambler.
I think its a little tongue in cheek,
From my point of view, the more disciplined and calculating makes for a more professional gambler.
Last couple of days I had the risk reward the right way, was taking small risks and letting winners run. Previously i was letting my losers run.
So it felt like I actually had a positive expectation the last couple of days, where as previously i might have had a negative expectation but used martingale sizing to eventually come out ahead (can work in the short term, but is a recipe to blowup eventually)
So there are degrees of gambling, the higher your expectation the less its gambling, although in trading there is always a gambling element to it. In that you cant prove you have an edge like a casino can.
I got no doubt i will back to martingale sizing and angry gambling the next time i have a big losing day.
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I think all businesses to a degree take a gamble because winds of fortune change.
The casino prolly less a gambler than the customer, nonetheless, the casino can also take knocks.
For example in Australia Crown Casino is having major issues atm while it faces corruption charges as well as Chinese high rollers no longer come.
China & Macau turned off the tap and international junket tour operators have also largely shut down.
The trader may have an edge, sometimes fleeting, sometimes seasonal, rarely permanent.
My edge relies a lot on luck, if the markets are bullish I remain lucky, when bearish I either wear a drawdown, a loss, or a profitable escape where I end up out of trading and making/losing nothing.
So trading on the luck of the market for me is my gambling.
I'm also gambling on my health, if it stays good I can trade.
Hello Smallfil,
Question: What is the likely hood of a human being doing the following for about XXX trading ideas/strategy:
1. Think of a trading idea/strategy with entry and exit method
2. Forward test in simulation day for day for 500 trades.
3. Start over from step 1 once total profits are negative from the 500 trades in step 2.
Thank you
Either you do it or you do not. The choice is yours. However, you are trading with a trading system that could have negative expectation? Nobody said trading would be so easy. Otherwise, everyone would be filthy rich millionaires including, the lazy slugs. There is some software out there that does backtests, I imagine the costs to be high not counting the data fees. Do not know how reliable it is. You have a degree in the IT field right? Maybe, you can code the backtesting part of it? Or go the easy route of using say the 50 sma crossover system. Buying when prices go above the 50 sma and selling when the price goes under the 50 sma. Or find another trading system and adapt it to your trading. You still have to backtest any trading system to see if you can make monies out of it. If not, why bother? "You probably, wasted a lot of time with whatever it is you were doing all this time." I already pointed you to the right direction. It is up to you to take action or keep doing what you are doing. "Smart people have the hardest time learning to trade because their egos prevent them from accepting the fact that they could be wrong."