Not sure where you are going with this, but it's definitely the wrong direction. If people are going to trade they should be given access to direct and indirect information, whether they win or lose then becomes their own informed choice. You can still make ridiculous amounts of money this way, you just need to analyze the same information better, the problem with this approach is that you can't make HNW or UHNW amounts of money and also be an Intellectual Yet Idiot.
Are the markets random, no. You generally have two small over-influencing groups, those who push the market up (value money), and those who pull it up (value time), they can also do the same in reverse. That generates four combinations, when there's stalemate, indifference or confusion you have neutral. What makes the most money, when you identify long/short and push/pull exactly to balance to neutral, all you're doing is buying mean reversion with limited risk, assuming you filtered the information correctly, that's where the hard work and experience comes in.
The push/money and pull/time dynamics are the opposite to what the public's conscious minds tell them should happen. If you've ever flown a plane, when you're coming in to land, an approach is to use the pitch to control speed and the speed to control height, it's counter intuitive. And to shut the noisy group up, we were given a direct flyover Miramar (Top Gun base) because the instructor knew the right people, who taught me that little snippet - translation: you can argue it but you're an idiot.
Currently you are seeing both groups push up and pull up the indexes, what happens when one or both bail out. In reality that is not a free market and not random, then you end up with a simple question, which group and approach is the least worst. You're trying to pull me to an opinion which is better, I think they're both stupid so go neutral, but that seems to confuse most people.
There are too many people who have created bureaucracy and mis-information because they're just not very smart and/or just too lazy to make money the fair and reasonable way. I can unwind their rubbish at lightening speed because of experience and a good dose of hard work, but it creates a double bind on most people, do they believe what they hear or do they believe what they see. So now, most are starting to go neutral because before they believed it was random, now they're starting to understand it might not be. The only problem, the backstops they thought the IYIs put in place to limit the downside actually don't exist.
