Question for those who believe everything is 50/50 always...

There is the underlying.
-> ES is about 55/45 -> Statistics
There is our understanding of it.
-> Maybe 1/n -> Epistemic uncertainty
There is our bet’s contract we trade.
-> TP/(SL+TP) -> Dutch Book Argument.

We may not talk about the same thing.
But if it’s 50:50 then a R:R > 1 is an ATM.

For 0.5x-0.5y>0 if x>y

Often probability are priced in.
Reverse prices to get probabilities.

Epistemologically wise ...
It’s subjective. Depends on your model.

If you got no data nor knowledge (Statistics),
Then it’s 1/n or 50:50.
 
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Flipping a coin is not "exactly" 50/50, three sides to a coin.

But if flipping a coin to either buy/sell a stock, there is odds of better than 50/50 of going up, where you can alter losing percentages is by more favorable signals based on when not to take trades based on charting, deep retracements whereas most retail call it a trend change, and of course hedging where upon entry, have no worse than breakeven results within a timeframe.

If one studies what retail does, reading books that many retail newbies read for instance, one can make a system of getting in when under financed use too tight of stops are getting out, when price going in right direction, emotional retail will get back in and others feeding their entry.

So what are chances of fresh faces with hopes of happiness and joy = hopeless for most part.
 
Handle123 said:
Flipping a coin is not "exactly" 50/50, three sides to a coin.

But if flipping a coin to either buy/sell a stock, there is odds of better than 50/50 of going up, where you can alter losing percentages is by more favorable signals based on when not to take trades based on charting, deep retracements whereas most retail call it a trend change, and of course hedging where upon entry, have no worse than breakeven results within a timeframe.

If one studies what retail does, reading books that many retail newbies read for instance, one can make a system of getting in when under financed use too tight of stops are getting out, when price going in right direction, emotional retail will get back in and others feeding their entry.

So what are chances of fresh faces with hopes of happiness and joy = hopeless for most part.
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Heads side slightly heavier slightly increased odds it'll land that down so i always bet tails.

Unless your flipping to other hand to show ofcourse.
 
Turveyd said:
Heads side slightly heavier slightly increased odds it'll land that down so i always bet tails.

Unless your flipping to other hand to show ofcourse.
More...

Although not at zero losses yet in 30 minute time frame plus, getting closer each year, so my coin has 2 sides of near zero and breakeven/plus. We can only control most of the time initial risk, profits are the gift, and I try for Christmas morning on every trade.
 
CyJackX said:
Some people assert that the direction is always a 50/50 chance, completely random.
Some assert that it's pretty close to 50/50, but the "edge" is what lets you get a positive expectancy.

Under that assumption, if a trader has a system that commits many trades (so as to rule variance out), shouldn't he not be able to lose money faster than the bleedout of commissions? If people can lose money faster than loss from commissions, and its not due to variance, it should hold that the person can at least go the other way as well.
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isnt it always either up or down? the idea is to know when up or when down
 
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