Question for Grob/Hershey...
- Thread starter makosgu
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Grob,
question removed.
ok I figured out the A/D , some stocktable indicator thing, I'll use my own.
First question was, do you use the markets NQ/YM/ES as your guide for the natural market cycles.
You keep mentioning using markets as your natural cycle guide, Are you using it as your guide or is it just the stock specific markets.
I'm pretty sure if you did not follow the method with the INDEX markets broad movements the results would be a lot of scratches ,
Another note:
I must mention the way you mentioned the day friday when I read it on some 1999 posts shocked me because i have the same idea the date friday.
It is the date where charts are closed for painting.
question removed.
ok I figured out the A/D , some stocktable indicator thing, I'll use my own.
First question was, do you use the markets NQ/YM/ES as your guide for the natural market cycles.
You keep mentioning using markets as your natural cycle guide, Are you using it as your guide or is it just the stock specific markets.
I'm pretty sure if you did not follow the method with the INDEX markets broad movements the results would be a lot of scratches ,
Another note:
I must mention the way you mentioned the day friday when I read it on some 1999 posts shocked me because i have the same idea the date friday.
It is the date where charts are closed for painting.
I´ve noticed that the last three gaps 30 dec, 3 jan and 6 jan - has behaved in a very similar way.
They all started outside of the range of the prior day.
The first day there was a random drift until the market touched the range of the prior day and then immediately changed direction. The other two days the gap was closed quickly and then the market changed direction.
Can some general rule be formulated here - something like when the market gaps outside of the prior days range, it has a tendency to change direction after the gap is closed - or is this just coincidential?
It makes sense to me when I think about it, and doing a quick check on older charts it seems to be a valid assumption, but I don´t know?
They all started outside of the range of the prior day.
The first day there was a random drift until the market touched the range of the prior day and then immediately changed direction. The other two days the gap was closed quickly and then the market changed direction.
Can some general rule be formulated here - something like when the market gaps outside of the prior days range, it has a tendency to change direction after the gap is closed - or is this just coincidential?
It makes sense to me when I think about it, and doing a quick check on older charts it seems to be a valid assumption, but I don´t know?
stalker, what you're talking about is edgeland stuff.
edgers are lazy.
do not substitute laziness for MADA sweeping using the PV and channels.
if you're going to do the edge stuff, then go with what easyrider has said many times before.
stop yourself from becoming distracted. You will not find what you are looking for by heading in that direction. money is not made there.
we need to travel away from edgeland and into the land of partnering with the market. find the right side of the market. get on it ASAP. then get out when the right side becomes the wrong side. you can usually exit (not discussing reversals here) a bad trade with less loss than you think.
ok as an aside, i was thinking to myself some things....i wanted to throw this out and see what others thought.
WE want to be and do the opposite of the majority correct? The reason being that money flows from the majority to the minority.
what does the majority do? here's my short list.
1. they use limit orders
2. they go out of bad trades on stops
3. they most often enter on bar close (which is also essentially bar open)....they don't take much if any action intra-bar
if the majority use the above
then the minority pretty much must use
1. market orders
2. don't exit bad trades on stops (but before stops are hit)...they are nimble
3. entry usually occurs intra-bar?
these observations are coming partly from my own current actions, partly from things i've read on ET, and partly from my whole experience of trading up to this point (having witnessed what others DO...and the fact that they don't make money DOING those things.
the lists are certainly longer than that.
edgers are lazy.
do not substitute laziness for MADA sweeping using the PV and channels.
if you're going to do the edge stuff, then go with what easyrider has said many times before.
stop yourself from becoming distracted. You will not find what you are looking for by heading in that direction. money is not made there.
we need to travel away from edgeland and into the land of partnering with the market. find the right side of the market. get on it ASAP. then get out when the right side becomes the wrong side. you can usually exit (not discussing reversals here) a bad trade with less loss than you think.
ok as an aside, i was thinking to myself some things....i wanted to throw this out and see what others thought.
WE want to be and do the opposite of the majority correct? The reason being that money flows from the majority to the minority.
what does the majority do? here's my short list.
1. they use limit orders
2. they go out of bad trades on stops
3. they most often enter on bar close (which is also essentially bar open)....they don't take much if any action intra-bar
if the majority use the above
then the minority pretty much must use
1. market orders
2. don't exit bad trades on stops (but before stops are hit)...they are nimble
3. entry usually occurs intra-bar?
these observations are coming partly from my own current actions, partly from things i've read on ET, and partly from my whole experience of trading up to this point (having witnessed what others DO...and the fact that they don't make money DOING those things.
the lists are certainly longer than that.
I didn´t look for a set-up, it had more to do with what to expect in certain situations.
I´m looking a bit at the "big picture", trying to figure out what to expect after a trend day up, after a couple of flat days and so on and how this relates to the IT channels. I believe you have to have a very good understanding of where you are in termes of range, cycles and trends if you gonna look at prv every 30 seconds.
I´m looking a bit at the "big picture", trying to figure out what to expect after a trend day up, after a couple of flat days and so on and how this relates to the IT channels. I believe you have to have a very good understanding of where you are in termes of range, cycles and trends if you gonna look at prv every 30 seconds.
I can't speak for Jack, but I honestly don't think he would have suggested you do the PRV drills with the expectation that you know those things.
I took a 30 second timer, printed out a stack of the sheets I posted, and went to town.
Start at the bottom row. Every 30 seconds, record on that line whatever the current volume reads when your timer goes off. Move up a line and repeat until the 5 minute bar closes.
Sometimes you will get a straight "bar". Sometimes you will get a zigzag line. Sometimes you will go off the page.
Maybe I did it wrong - I dunno - but it helped me see the volume better.
You've said that you have trouble understanding things at times because of the language barrier. I speak German fluently and my wife is a native speaker - if your German is better than your English, I would be willing to translate the parts that cause you difficulty. Let me know.
Anthony
lol, my german... the only thing I understand is the quote from Kennedy (I believe it was him) "Ich bien ein Berliner", don´t even know if the spelling is right 
The thing I didn´t understand with the prv was the sheet showing lines with divergence towards the right upper corner. What is this showing? This has nothing to do with language problems, it´s just me being slow here
I think that you will get too hyper if you look at prv without an understanding of larger formations and what has happened the day before and the last couple of hours. there´s a reson for drawing channels on different fractals, and that is to not loose perspective. Looking too closely at prv without having the experience and knowledge to zoom out and keep calm will make it difficult to take more than a point or two, cause volume is jumpy from a 30-second perspective. You need to be able to smooth things out in your mind. You can´t look exlusively at what is happening in the present.
About the gaps - my thinking was - let´s say the market gaps down 4 points. Well obviously people think the market was over-valued yesterday. Then the gap players comes along and the gap closes. But isn´t this usually just a technical rally, and wouldn´t most people still think the market is over-valued? Just a thought among other, maybe worth something, maybe irrelevent...
The thing I didn´t understand with the prv was the sheet showing lines with divergence towards the right upper corner. What is this showing? This has nothing to do with language problems, it´s just me being slow here
I think that you will get too hyper if you look at prv without an understanding of larger formations and what has happened the day before and the last couple of hours. there´s a reson for drawing channels on different fractals, and that is to not loose perspective. Looking too closely at prv without having the experience and knowledge to zoom out and keep calm will make it difficult to take more than a point or two, cause volume is jumpy from a 30-second perspective. You need to be able to smooth things out in your mind. You can´t look exlusively at what is happening in the present.
About the gaps - my thinking was - let´s say the market gaps down 4 points. Well obviously people think the market was over-valued yesterday. Then the gap players comes along and the gap closes. But isn´t this usually just a technical rally, and wouldn´t most people still think the market is over-valued? Just a thought among other, maybe worth something, maybe irrelevent...
Stalker -- on your first point... IMO you are right on with this perspective. As far as larger formations go... you need to know if you are in continuation mode or change mode. Basically trending (R-L traverse) or chopping (L-R traverse).
In change mode is where you get your FBO's (and your BO's)... and this is where just blindly following PRV can hurt you... you have to understand the bigger picture and know some sequences... be prepared mentally to reverse on an FBO. It's a tough to do.
On gaps -- forget about thinking over-valued vs. under-valued crap.. We are market timers mainly. Yes - gaps do get filled from time to time. This is all you need to know about them.
If you haven't already buy Edqards and Magee and read it cover to cover. In three years read it again.
Today is pure change mode... I managed to eek out about 3 ticks this AM. I traded continuation off of the VDU on bar 29 (11:50) and the VDU on bar 21 (11:10).
Looks like we might get trending through the midday.
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