Question for Grob/Hershey...
- Thread starter makosgu
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Just curious whether the posters quit because they were making too much money to bother, or because they lost their grubstakes.
Or perhaps a Malkielean market is taking their money?
i am at a loss as to how to do rockets and be taking little or no losses with them
1. jack recommends wash trades, i believe this
2. jack recommends exit of rocket when fast line leaves the 20/80...he doesn't specify end of bar or intrabar criteria here...however he DOES say that minor blips inside are to be expected...so i'm leaning more to a bar close interpretation...i believe this as well
3. jack recommends stop logging...i believe this
4. i have not found a way to ensure washing AND staying in with the fast line criteria....in other words by the time the fast line truly comes inside the 20/80...it is too late to wash and a loss must be taken.
ultimately i fail to see how this is going to get you to 3x initial capital safely and with little or no drawdown.
given that the rules have you entering on the tail end of the point 1-2 move...if the trend continues you have to sit through a trade drawdown as you move to a possible point 3...this is fine...but that is leading to an iceberg...not just a rocket.
what it comes down to for me is this, i KNOW i can wash out of every single rocket entry i take looking at the PRV on the entry bar.
however, after that, I do NOT know how to wash IF the stoch's decide to not maintain oversold/bought condition.
the other day a 6 point rocket was on the table, that's great, but the surrounding ones were failures and not washable from my understanding of the whold thing.
I am obviously not monitoring something or somethings, but i don't know what it/they are.
as i said, i am at a loss.
however, i have not yet given up.
1. jack recommends wash trades, i believe this
2. jack recommends exit of rocket when fast line leaves the 20/80...he doesn't specify end of bar or intrabar criteria here...however he DOES say that minor blips inside are to be expected...so i'm leaning more to a bar close interpretation...i believe this as well
3. jack recommends stop logging...i believe this
4. i have not found a way to ensure washing AND staying in with the fast line criteria....in other words by the time the fast line truly comes inside the 20/80...it is too late to wash and a loss must be taken.
ultimately i fail to see how this is going to get you to 3x initial capital safely and with little or no drawdown.
given that the rules have you entering on the tail end of the point 1-2 move...if the trend continues you have to sit through a trade drawdown as you move to a possible point 3...this is fine...but that is leading to an iceberg...not just a rocket.
what it comes down to for me is this, i KNOW i can wash out of every single rocket entry i take looking at the PRV on the entry bar.
however, after that, I do NOT know how to wash IF the stoch's decide to not maintain oversold/bought condition.
the other day a 6 point rocket was on the table, that's great, but the surrounding ones were failures and not washable from my understanding of the whold thing.
I am obviously not monitoring something or somethings, but i don't know what it/they are.
as i said, i am at a loss.
however, i have not yet given up.
You're treading down a path that other's before you have traveled. You will find a lot of similar commentary and Q's in other Jack threads along the same lines. There you will also find some answers and suggestions. I prefer to defer in regard to your specific points since it has been quite a while that I've practiced the "beginner" approach to rockets. I prefer icebergs or CCC brackets to catch rockets.
My opinion is that Jack's methodology is a rich and comprehensive system which starts with beginner rockets. You follow the rocket rules and just do it. The market will give it to you, or it won't. If it doesn't give you enough to set your first stop, you wash. If it does, you keep stop log through the hold and make some money. Most "rockets" using the beginner approach don't work, and you may lose some money. Its up to you how much. That's why the wash is there..to keep you around for the rockets that do work. You know this and are prepared, and now you adjust your expectations and just be there when they come. We are on the same page here already, yes?
Ok then, improvements will only come from iterative refinement, which from your place, means learning the other parts to the system, C-M-F sweeps, MADA, PV-A/D relations, channels/gaussians, sequencing with stoc/macd indicators, P&V formations, 7-fractal annotations, 15m/1m zoomout-zoomins and C&R/stops during holds. Medium YM stuff, learning to kill hyperness the 1m ES and occassionally YM incites. More refinements do follow. Annotating and sequencing overlaps of every traverse to find pt1 of new 5m channels (an aha), sequencing multi-fractal pt.1/pt.3s to hit 10pt+ homers (an aha),curiousity leading to more research regarding the market operating point and matrix, observing 2pairs on tick charts to catch pt.1/pt.3s (usually with multiple washes), observing the cash spread to time pt1/pt3 entries (usually with multiple washes), blah and blah and blah.
All of this is to say that there is a lot here for the taking so try not to be discouraged. Some of my cries have gone unanswered but I am not deterred. Few here post TDs anymore or comment on anything that helps me personally, but I am not deterred. Most seem to have given up on SCT, but I'm not deterred in the least bit. I papertrade because I have an intense job and don't have the guts to quit it and apprentice rockets until I triple my income. Grob says I'm screwed because of this. That my IQ might improve but my EQ will be deficient because I am not using real dough. I feel I only need a few tweaks here and there but I rarely attract a response from Grob (which is ok given his demands). No one else wants to "learn to turn" with me (or know what the hell I'm talking about). Others tell me to figure it out for myself without telling me so straight out. That's ok. I respect what they all have to say and take it in stride. They have all been helpful at some point during my learning process, God bless 'em.
Hang in there Danth and iterate if you want to improve. I don't have a problem posting traded charts. I had an opportunity to PT yesterday so see my "TD" attached. Its not my annotated charts, just the tradelogger from ninjatrader. My real charts these days would frighten you..they look like grob gone madd
.15.75pts. Signing off...mgin the moron
Jack suggested rockets in the stochastic indicator thread he started in Feb 03. The ES market was coming off a period of very nice trends and volatility over the prior 3 years and more. The chart attached shows an equity curve of a simple MACD system on $INX(cash s&p500) 30 min bars. It is not to show you a great system, but to show how trends have changed in the ES market since about 2003. The MACD system will make some profits if there are enough significant trends to outweigh the whipsaw reversals. IN EVERY YEAR UP TO 2003 the trends on the 30 min $INX were prevelant enough and strong enough to outweigh the reversal/congestion periods. Since 2003 the ES market has been characterized by congestion and reversals. THAT IS WHY you are having trouble making money trading rockets. They simply arent there NOW. Maybe coming up, certainly years ago, but not in the last three years. Make a new trade, swap ES for GOOG.
<img src="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=901988">
MACD 30 min $INX
<img src="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=901992">
<img src="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=901992">
True, though I'm not sure I'm looking for a trading buddy. This and other Jack threads is plenty to accomplish what I need as long as there is continued pursuit and sharing of insights of Jack's methods. Care to join in? I'm particularly interested to hear your constructive views of "tacking" into the new trend during an overlap.
Do you reverse and pray or do you use money management tactics to compensate and reduce risk exposure? Have you noticed how the backside of the gaussian that leads to the VDU coincides with the market profile unfair low/high? Have you noticed how much more possible SCT becomes when you integrate scaling methods? Do you reverse on LTL extensions and hold the traverse lateral that ensues? If so, do you automatically reverse on the RTL or do you instead bracket the lateral for BO (resumption)? Have you done any walkforward testing of blanket rules of reversing after the 3rd, 4th, 5th iceberg of a slow trend. Do you always hold the first one for confirmation of the channel and place a BE behind the ftt/pt.1?
I'd listen to anything constructive you or anyone has to say.
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