Question for Grob/Hershey...

[aweissen]

Thanks excav8tr -

A minor typo on the coarse level "Volume" missing as a heading. As to the content, I'm still working on grappling that so I can't comment there

As a side note - I think I just had a flash of insight. I've wondered what the "score" scan is, and I know some others have asked about it too. I think it's the P-V-A/D scoring, (0 - 7) based on whats going on.

Speaking of, does anyone know of a way to easily measure A/D? I've read Laz's final A/D doc a few times, but I haven't grasped it yet.

 

[excav8tr]

Quote from aweissen:


As a side note - I think I just had a flash of insight. I've wondered what the "score" scan is, and I know some others have asked about it too. I think it's the P-V-A/D scoring, (0 - 7) based on whats going on.

Speaking of, does anyone know of a way to easily measure A/D? I've read Laz's final A/D doc a few times, but I haven't grasped it yet.

The Score is a binary method to determine where in the cycle you are. Yes it is the P V A/D relationship you are right.

step 1. For each, P V and A/D determine whether it is increasing or decreasing.

step 2. for increasing put a 1 in the corresponding box, or for decreasing put a 0 in the box multiply through and voila you get a score. (tells you where you are) just remember there are cycles within each fractal so you have to be consious of where you are looking for the answers to put in the box.

for A/D - try a volume flow indicator maybe?

HTH

 

[ktmexc20]

Quote from excav8tr:

The Score is a binary method to determine where in the cycle you are. Yes it is the P V A/D relationship you are right.

step 1. For each, P V and A/D determine whether it is increasing or decreasing.

step 2. for increasing put a 1 in the corresponding box, or for decreasing put a 0 in the box multiply through and voila you get a score. (tells you where you are) just remember there are cycles within each fractal so you have to be conscious of where you are looking for the answers to put in the box.

for A/D - try a volume flow indicator maybe?

HTH

I've found Gray Code to be very interesting (especially iterative binary-reflected Gray code. See the rotary encoder for an illustration and think.. fractal checkerboard.). This might lead some to other very interesting associations.

You also might want to check out pixel image mapping, to learn about an association to the operating point.

 

[makosgu]

Quote from excav8tr:

I have revamped the sweeps document with color and more tables. I find it has helped me to get through it.

I am not sure of my interpretation with regards to the gausians and lateral movement stuff (p-4) with pictures. If someone could check that and let me know I would greatly appreciate it. There may be additional errors I am not aware of so please feel free to respond about those as well. I will make corrections and repost If anyone desires.

Great work everyone.

MAK nice to see you back.

What a keeper wrt the attachment. SUPER! I really need to get some major actionable substance into this thread. For the record, I SCT on 15M bars using just BSize/ASize and a variant IF1/IF2. I don't mind sharing explicit details but I haven't been able to formalize it into something rigid while I was in the lab... ARGH! We'll get there... Definitely enjoying the interactions here.

MAK!

 

[Chicken Little]

Quote from makosgu:

So you are in failure modus ALL of the time. Definitely wouldn't want to be you, FOR SURE! How about enlightening us on what works for you? Does anything work for you? You realize that all of this is an extension of the same exact SUCCESSFUL principles Spyder uses don't you? Presumably for you, Spyder's thread stinks of too much success for you? But you're not interested in what works for you, just what doesn't work for you... Too bad again... HOW ABOUT GOING BACK TO http://www.deltat1.com/Education/articles/fed_days/fdc_all.htm (ie. FOMC - here is all of them courtesy of another ETer in an unrelated thread) and noticing the consistency AGAIN!!!

LAZINESS... tsk tsk

MAK!

Hershey needs to explain his own failures, I can't explain them for him.

I have never once mentioned spydertrader. Trading stocks as he does on a daily swing basis is not ES trading on the 5 min bar.

Spydertrader does not advocate:
staying in the market all the time i.e., SCT
using bar 4 break out of a 5 min chart technique
30 min bar breakouts
"rocket" strategy of buying into spikes, although he uses MACD afaik.
IF1 IF2 APA etc
Trendlines
using another futures contract as a leading indicator
The only thing he uses connected to hershey's SCT for futures is volume.
I agree that he is the only successful Hershey protege one can readily identify. However he is not trading ES futures intraday which is the topic here unless I am mistaken.
The most amusing thing is the "setup bashing" that goes on in this thread. Its the crux of the success to the spydertrader method. He does NOT trade unless his highly defined setup is present !

"quidquid latine dictum sit altum viditur"

 

[makosgu]

So now let's dissect your comment so we can find out what's what/wrong

Quote from Chicken Little:

Hershey needs to explain his own failures, I can't explain them for him.

This is pure nonsense. The failure is in your comprehension. You hear what you want to hear and understand what you want to understand. You have mentioned this several times by stating that you were implementing a variation of of 30M breakout...

I have never once mentioned spydertrader.

EXACTLY! Hence my comment is to why you dwell in failure modes and the comment that you hear what you want to hear and do what you want to do. Spyder is a resounding success, but you clearly indicate your not interested in spyder's success.

Trading stocks as he does on a daily swing basis is not ES trading on the 5 min bar.

SIGH! Yes, more of the same. FRACTALLY it is the same, EXACTLY THE SAME with the caveat that there is more than one asset available at all times. The SCT is always having capital deployed CONTINUALLY! Rotating the capital through stock cycles is the seamless part. You show over and over again that you are not capable of identifying a picture of something that is new to your psyche. The fault in your comments is that no one here will put forth the effort for you. This is simply because everyone must make their own effort. That is how belief begins. Get rid of the baby bottle and start learning how to use a spoon. You're gonna have to do alot better with comprehension...

Spydertrader does not advocate:
staying in the market all the time i.e., SCT
using bar 4 break out of a 5 min chart technique
30 min bar breakouts
...
snip
....

So you have never seen the FRV there. It is the PRV equivalent. The DU/VDU is also the same exact concept of identifying the noise level (Vn) such that he is assured of that his "VOLUME" signal (Vs) has a ratio > 1. The scoring is also the same and is within our sweeps...
P incr/decr, V incr/decr, A/D; SCT makes use of all of the above. So now it should be clear that what Spyder does is a subset of SCT.

"rocket" strategy of buying into spikes, although he uses MACD afaik.
IF1 IF2 APA etc
Trendlines
using another futures contract as a leading indicator

You have missed the boat entirely with the scattering of random concepts. SCT is concept that can be diced many ways. IF1/IF2/APA is 1 method of SCTing, Channels are another method for SCTing, STR/SQU/NEUT is another method of SCTing, DOM/T&S is another method of SCTing, FRACTALS etc...

The most amusing thing is the "setup bashing" that goes on in this thread. Its the crux of the success to the spydertrader method. He does NOT trade unless his highly defined setup is present !

. SCT encompasses all setups, that's why it is S and C. However, since you agree on spyder's success, than why don't you just realize the futures equivalent and implement it. It shouldn't be difficult at all since you have displayed that you recognize aspects of Spyder's success. SCT has nothing to do with setups and everything to do with continuity...

"quidquid latine dictum sit altum viditur"

"Unitam logica falsa tuam philosophiam totam suffodiant"

If you're looking for "setup" stuff, you'll have to look elsewhere. Go to the www.tradersinternational.com and look for a Franz Shoar. There is a subscription room which is like a baby bottle. It's reported to be valuable...

"Veritas"

MAK!

 

[Dantheman]

i have a question about PRV...

If i'm short, i naturally want to see increasing Red/down volume and decreasing UP/black volume correct?

so as i'm marking down the 30 second volume readings, what do i DO with the black volume? should i give it a negative value?

i ask because as i was watching bar 8, the total volume kept increasing to about middway through the bar, BUT the price dropped as the volume increased...

if i gave a NEG. value to 30s volume that was against me...i'd have just taken a 2 tick loss and sidelined OR take small loss and reverse?

(this was not a rocket trade, and i didn't take it, but i was wondering how you'd handle the PRV issue.)

i'm guessing my wondering is somehow related to gaussians

 

[Chicken Little]

Quote from makosgu:



You have missed the boat entirely with the scattering of random concepts. SCT is concept that can be diced many ways. IF1/IF2/APA is 1 method of SCTing, Channels are another method for SCTing, STR/SQU/NEUT is another method of SCTing, DOM/T&S is another method of SCTing, FRACTALS etc...

A fact is this: hershey claimed that trading 30 min bar breakouts in the YM all day long would make $75,000 per year. It simply does not. That is his failure not mine. Ask DandyMan for a full debrief.

 

[makosgu]

Quote from Dantheman:

i have a question about PRV...

If i'm short, i naturally want to see increasing Red/down volume and decreasing UP/black volume correct?

so as i'm marking down the 30 second volume readings, what do i DO with the black volume? should i give it a negative value?

Couple of things... We PRV to take a peak at the bars projection. Way back somewhere, possibly in the previous thread, I posted a simple diagram of Volatility (dP) vs Volume of a sample of 5M bars. The resulting chart showed that there is a strong correlation between Volume and Volatility. Specifically, the relationship displayed that a bar with Extraordinary Volume will have extraordinary Volatility. Well of course, this is straight forward intuitively speaking since volume is what drives price changes.

For the moment, drop the bar's color. There is a blank chart Grob posted somewhere relating pace/volume/volatility. It's under a different heading but the interpretation is related to the above and is intended to rapidly develop the simple beliefs that Volume and Volatility are directly related, Volume and Risk are inversely related, and that different paces have different characteristics. Assuming that the above truths are believed, than the PRV provides a means to identify the volatility and pace of the current bar and as a result the level of risk and characteristics that are in motion. The IQ part of a PRV is simple, 300/(elapsed current 5M bar's time in seconds)*(elapsed current 5M bar's volume). This is a second by second PRV that resets every 5M.

At 30s into the new bar, you run the PRV analysis (or glance at it if it's preprogrammed like the above eqn), and then DECIDE! At that point the decision is to note where you are and then consider what the outcome of the current 5M bar is projecting to be in 4.5M. If your PRV says the bar is looking extraordinary, then check to see that you are on the right side of the bar and ACT if necessary. This is where RED/BLACK is a consideration. Rechecking PRV every 30s should identify the change in the projected 5M bars volume. I somehow need to illustrate this better.

i ask because as i was watching bar 8, the total volume kept increasing to about middway through the bar, BUT the price dropped as the volume increased...

if i gave a NEG. value to 30s volume that was against me...i'd have just taken a 2 tick loss and sidelined OR take small loss and reverse?

Your comment here is keen. It is likely that action does not occur precisely at the end or beginning of any given 5M bar. This is one of the reasons why we monitor 5M ES and 2M YM. Personally, I'm way out on the 15M and I only look at 1 bar, the current one.

(this was not a rocket trade, and i didn't take it, but i was wondering how you'd handle the PRV issue.)

i'm guessing my wondering is somehow related to gaussians

I need to do many more drills with gaussians.

Regards,
MAK!

 

[icarus618]

Quote from Dantheman:

i have a question about PRV...

If i'm short, i naturally want to see increasing Red/down volume and decreasing UP/black volume correct?

so as i'm marking down the 30 second volume readings, what do i DO with the black volume? should i give it a negative value?

* * *

My suggestion to you is to set aside a big chunk of time this weekend and put in the effort to study what others have written on PRV. Do not start with what you think you know about it. Leave what you think you know off the table.

So on Saturday you might put in a block of 5 hours and gather together old posts and documents that you already have. You might have a pad and pen in front of you to jot down questions that arise. Maybe you could start with simple ones: What is PRV? How is it determined? What does PRV tell me? How does that fit into what I know about making money in a trend?

Get a good night's sleep.

On Sunday, put in another block of 5 hours and do a write-up on PRV. Make sure you answer all the basic questions above. Answer any other questions that have come up to that point. If you don't have a complete answer to any question, do your best with it and leave it aside for another time. Put a copy of it in a folder called "Things I Want to Know About Making Money in the Market". Perhaps you can bring up the question here for others' input.

Make sure the PRV document is complete in the sense it contains all you know about PRV at this time. After you've written this document, put it in your big binder where you keep all your other write-ups about making money in the market and have with you on long trips and afternoon excursions to your favorite cafe.

I am suggesting this to you because you show a pattern of taking things that have been written clearly enough for others to grasp and butchering them to the point of confusing yourself. It could be looked at as being inventive, but it doesn't help you from my viewpoint.

How you arrived at thinking doing PRV is taking red and black volume and negative values . . . I have no idea.

I know you have your own way of doing things. You may not take what I've suggested as useful in any way, maybe. In any case, all the best.