You guys are an absolute scream! Shadows cast on the cave wall by firelight!
Question for Grob/Hershey...
- Thread starter makosgu
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I think i remember you wrote that you didn´t get much signals with your oil system. So what does it matter if you´ve seen the light if it doesn´t help you make money?
My first thought yesterday was that it prob. had something to do with oil. But does it matter if what´s happening has to do with oil or bin laden or what ever? My bet is that few people who make money intraday care much...
My first thought yesterday was that it prob. had something to do with oil. But does it matter if what´s happening has to do with oil or bin laden or what ever? My bet is that few people who make money intraday care much...
A question for anyone who might have reviewed many of Jack's posts made back in the day (USENET): Jack posted once about the possibility of using Linear Regression "as a pinwheel" to trade equities. Using walk forward analysis with Linear Regression and Hershey Equities, I have arrived at some revealing results. In an effort to double check my parameters with those Jack once used, I have searched for that post, but have been unable to locate it. Could any of you (including Jack) point me in the direction of the post to which I refer? I'm specifically looking for the parameters Jack used with his Linear Regression Channels (Source and data points). If you feel my query takes the thread off topic, feel free to post your response here. Thanks in advance for any information you can provide.
- Spydertrader
- Spydertrader
Stalker. I don't make much money with it because I only trade when I am between consulting gigs. If you understand at what times of day oil has influence, the inverse relationship of indices is a powerful confirmation of other tradecraft. And just like the fact that the women who bust your balls the worst in public are the most passive in bed, when indices resist oil, you get an easy lay.
Finsihed in the positive but overall it was a disappointing day considering how much was on the table. My first trade was a big step forward for me -- I shorted bar 4 and held until bar 8 for +2.5. In the PM I was up +4 but gave up 2.25 on my last two trades which were rockets that came back against me. I should have sidelined after the big drop... it took me a while to realize we were centering.
+1.75
+1.75
The best part of the 4 bar hold is doing the repeated decision to hold.
I'm sure for several of those decisions, one after another you got to having a good continuing emotional feeling.
The emotions derive from the monitoring sensory stuff but there is a confirmation of the emotions in the deciding affort, especially if you are logging the reason for the hold decision from time to time.
I go through pages of of dily logs. Often, as a trade continues it is a case of going down the column for remarks with similar statements. repeating them is easy and then when you debrief you see the day in a more proportional (representative ) light.
When you have been abole to see 10 or more ticks accumulating under a given market operating point (meaning condition that sustains itself), you are getting the sense of the meaning of "continuation".
At any particular time or the run of any specific bars, there are several ticks involved. Later some of them are not longer involved and other tick values come into play.
The am worked for you with these tick ranges on particular bars. Think while you debrief what was it that correlated with that successful movement. Being as you were short, you may feel more aspects of newness. In the pm try to drebrief and see what was not correlating that was there in the am. What you are finding out is where a change in monitoring occurred durin the three "hold" periods. What you become aware of is the place where learning is now continuing for you. Here is the picture: this am the sufficiency of conditions was less complex and you handled this well. In the pm, additional facets were at play that required synthesizing into the picture. One or more of these facets became the dominating feature of why making money eluded you. Look around especially as bars reach limits of their size (and which end) and when in the time of the bar formation this occurs. You will see, concurrently, other parts of your sweeps telling you when change is coming up.
Having gone along seeing four bars do relatively the same thing and then perceiving a difference that takes you out or into a reversal, you get to experience Holding with reasons, primarily and then acting briefly in the moment of changing circumstances.
Once you are able to hold through intraday trends, you build up a huge deja vu memory file of making money. This takes you very far way from giving it back. There is one more aspect of learning here, as well. It is the matter of recognizing that when you decide to take profits at the end of something, simultaneously you are sitting, at that time, at the beginning of what is next. It is simply the opportunity to resume the former feelings and observations of making more money just after making money. the sets of feelings for making more money are roughly identical to the sets of feelings of making more money. If these feelings occupy more and more of your time through the day, you will find that you spend less of your time having "sideline" feelings.
"sideline" feelings are those that most people have most of the time. They can utterly defeat the learning process as they become more and more deply embedded.
If you take profits by exiting using a reversal everytime, you get to put yourself in a position to deal with just washing if you need to.
Establishing an entry and exit style of trading leads to a condition of being sidelined and observing the market continue without you. You may get to a place where you feel relieved to exit and it is a time for serving your personal needs instead of using the day to make money. Like football players who only play one half of a game or the other. They sit on benches as the game is played. Basket ball is different players remain standing after collecting points and they deal with getting the ball back as a specific effort. They make continuous efforts to participate.
In trading there is a continuous effort not as complex as basketball. In trading you always have the ball, why sit on the bench with the ball at any time?
When you monitor the market, strive to be in the market when you are monitoring price changing. Our objective is to be holding except for 20 to 40 moments perday when we are going through the process of tacking from one mode of making money to the next mode of making money.
Seeing the chunks of 2.2 and 4.0 and 1.3 is how it goes during the day. Collect 20 chuncks a day composed of 4 or so bars each. Its nice to have 81 bars a day....do the chunking.
Look at this and tell me you needed SCT to tell you what the afternoon would bring.
"...and they see only their own shadows, or the shadows of one another, which the fire throws on the opposite wall of the cave?"
Hahahahaha!
"...and they see only their own shadows, or the shadows of one another, which the fire throws on the opposite wall of the cave?"
Hahahahaha!
nobody was predicting what the afternoon would bring hotshot
grob, i really like the idea of transitioning away from the entry/exit mentality via reversing as profit taking ...seems like a quick way to break that bad habit. awesome, shoot just do the first RtoL traverse then reverse and go LtoR (or wash if it craps out)...no stress there.
I just downloaded your channels documents from the msn groups area and I notice that the table of contents sheets have some things listed that weren't in there....
I was wondering if you posted them elsewhere or if you didn't write anything for it?
specifically i'm talking about
"IV Making Money"
the last half of "III Getting Started"
and "V Getting and Staying in Shape"
grob, i really like the idea of transitioning away from the entry/exit mentality via reversing as profit taking ...seems like a quick way to break that bad habit. awesome, shoot just do the first RtoL traverse then reverse and go LtoR (or wash if it craps out)...no stress there.
I just downloaded your channels documents from the msn groups area and I notice that the table of contents sheets have some things listed that weren't in there....
I was wondering if you posted them elsewhere or if you didn't write anything for it?
specifically i'm talking about
"IV Making Money"
the last half of "III Getting Started"
and "V Getting and Staying in Shape"
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