Question for Grob/Hershey...
- Thread starter makosgu
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This is a profound consideration.
It is well worth the time to go into as many considerations as you can on why trend channels behave so consistently.
For example, your "anyway" paragreaph is not reasoned currectly.
Additionally it is extremely worth while to determine why each of the many contrarian viewpoints do not hold water. In this set of people there are a lot of people who have spent considerable time coming to the wrong conclusions.
What determines the correctness of any conclusions fits into the category of "pragmatism", this is, the utility of the understandings to be place to make money both effectively and efficiently.
There is another thread in which a request is made by a person who appraently deals with remote traders. His quest is for a "convenient" answer. The inconvenient answer involves taking snippets from 34 separate books and forms an answer that is, as they say "priceless". I was going to pm it but you can't PM attachments. lol.
At any rate, you , yet once again have hit upon a very important undertaking. This undertaking, if you do it, will cause an offset on your equity curve that will have more area under it than any other single undertaking in thinking about the markets.
This is because the result of the undertaking gives you something that cannot be duplicated in any other way. Here is what I mean:
You study deeply how somethings works repeatedly on all fractals. This is a nice conclusion from studying. But it is only a beginning relative to what you have pragmatically discovered. I write it down here but that it is not something that can be read and made part of "working" knowledge. you may be able to snip together from books about 50 pages of thoughts that are similar, as well.
What you can reason through is that your study was all after the fact. this is extremely important to get through. Once you do it, you can conclude stuff. One thing you definitely get is that almost all the time what you annotated "worked" as a study principle of a method to draw lines that work.
Sloppy people, you see here in ET just draw a "top" line and a "bottom" line. They are time wasters and learn nothing.
Another group, will "back test" geometrically and draw a trend line and pick a point and draw a line parallel to the trend line through it. They get comfort and see, occasionally that any point they picked probably has another point that is identical, choicewise. And they stop there. They feel comfortable.
What must a person do to actually study and learn though?
Person's do not know that by doing a study like this that they can improve their equity curve more than any other single studying effort. This is a rare opportunity; how does a person create such opportunities?
You read this and you have reached a point where I may have awakened your interest in getting to a point of considering how you "work" as a person to succeed.
I ask you to examine the contrarians vis a vis trends, etc. they, it turns out, cannot manage their lives to be able to "work" on solving problems. It is not a "problem" per se, it turns out. It is an opportunity that cannot get on the table.
At this point you are not connecting the dots. Acctually you are picking some dots you like and are misconnecting your likeable dots. There are no games at Toys "R Us with names like "connect the wrong dots and lose" or "turn over an arbitray dot and connect it to the string of dots other players have played" or "Scrabble Reasoning in making money".
The making money pay off that I am putting on the table is felt to be by some, something that is impossible to do and, in fact, they reason that it can only be done after the fact. Thie reasoned position is probably a product of using lagging indicators, making bets on entry strategies and/or using mechnical exits. Just as the carribean residents could not "see" the ships of Columbus from any distance, it is not within the power of most ET'ers to study the market's behaviors.
You see me repeatedly and earnestly suggest that people do drills. Draw 10 Gaussians in a row working from the middle? Rsponse.....Naw, just trade in a chat room for one day and show me the money. LOL LOL LOL....
So I do the job and post it. a very different set of players "get it".... The initial set who won't do it, suggest that go for a job interview......so they can collectively miss the boat one more time by applying thier inane criteria...LOL..
So to study you must use the concept of parallel lines as a hypothesis. It is done in only one pertinent manner. Devising that manner is the clue that is needed to be able to unleash the power of studying and, further, to unleach the immense power of its application to making money in real time.
There are many ways to study. I, in lectures on innovation, often compare, Edison and Tesla. Today, in NYC the power company that esists is named after Edison and it uses Tesla's methods. I also comment on how Delphi processes can be made effective. I originated the Modified Delphi process for this.
The true power of the channel composed of parallel lines is its lifetime. Money is made by using the lifetime of the channel.
Can you reason to the point of understanding this?
Does knowing this open the door to understanding that you must study three things?
What are they? As always you think up three things to continue too examine anything.
Most important for channels it the part where you make money. That is where you take profits.
Next in importtance is how you find the opportunity to make money. This is similar to the "edge" philosophy. People look for edges and the only ting they consider are entries. Read about edges. All they bullshit about are entries. This is a kind of joke on traders it turns out.
The last thing about making money in channels is how long it the hotdog. "continuation".
Enough small talk, what is the supreme aspect of channels that can be discovered?
Think about it. How long does a person have to study channels before he looks at two channels?
How long does he look before he discovers how many kinds of channels there are?
I have looked. In ET I can run the level of discourse up level by level and it is my opinion that every post I make can ease further up the line of itntellectual consideration. One thing you will notice after a while is that I a reporting to you what I know and not what I am exploring. I explore with Modifid Delphi spaces that are constructed to get RESULTS.
you will conclude through the intellectual work you must do that channels can be drawn with two consecutive bars and adjusted, finaklly with a third bar. You will find that the three linds of channels overlap in each possible combination. you will find that as a consequence of overlap that entries and exits are not necessary. You will find that maonitoring "how long the hot dog is" is what is called for and at the end of a hot dog is another ENTRY. the market tool that facilitates that is called a REVERSAL in to the new trend where you simply find the length of he hot dog one more time (except for lateral channels which you "slalom").
Do the study to build your mind. build it repeatedly by monitoring the market with projected channels on ALL fractals as just presented by Icarus and by the icon to the channel reference just provided.
It is necessary to do the study in order that you never fail to have the array of projected channels there to putt on the green.
Quote from Stalker:
i think we´re talking about two different things - I´m talking about the orders, you´re talking about the buying/selling that has actually taken place, right?
hidden orders/icebergs gotta be international, can´t be just a swedish thing...
Sorry, I had to remove the previous contents of this post.
Actually, FOCUS on what Grob just posted. It is rubber meeting the road and is of utmost importance and relevance.
Kind Regards,
MAK!
I´m drawing the channels, but i´ve decided to follow only YM for a week or two.
The simple reason for this is that it became too much for me to handle 2 markets simultaniously. last week i felt i didn´t have time to really focus on what was happening (a little catatonic).
Friday and today i have only focused on ym, and i find that i understand things much better just in two days. I`m able to study volume-price action and the channels much more closely, and i recognise things i didn´t have time to see last week.
Although i take one step back instead of forward at the moment, i feel that i have improved a lot just in a couple of days. I actually can see patterns in how price behaves in realtime where to me there were just bars jumping up and down only a week ago.
thanks to everybody, time to go...
/Stalker
The simple reason for this is that it became too much for me to handle 2 markets simultaniously. last week i felt i didn´t have time to really focus on what was happening (a little catatonic).
Friday and today i have only focused on ym, and i find that i understand things much better just in two days. I`m able to study volume-price action and the channels much more closely, and i recognise things i didn´t have time to see last week.
Although i take one step back instead of forward at the moment, i feel that i have improved a lot just in a couple of days. I actually can see patterns in how price behaves in realtime where to me there were just bars jumping up and down only a week ago.
thanks to everybody, time to go...
/Stalker
mak - i´ve only read about this so i´m afraid i´m not the best source to consult. I mailed cbot about hidden orders on futures a month ago but they didn´t answer...
I don´t know how it works in this market, but usually big investors can hide their orders so you just can´t see them in the orderbook. There can be a big buyer or seller waiting at a specific price without us being able to see it in dom. That is, if i´ve understood things correctly. Please correct me anyone if i´ve got it all wrong...
/Stalker
I don´t know how it works in this market, but usually big investors can hide their orders so you just can´t see them in the orderbook. There can be a big buyer or seller waiting at a specific price without us being able to see it in dom. That is, if i´ve understood things correctly. Please correct me anyone if i´ve got it all wrong...
/Stalker
I'll try to outline how you can monitor DOM or button.
I do not use it 100% of monitoring time. When I sweep to it I am arriving before you do presently.
Stalker is looking at it before you sweep to it also but I do not know what % of the time he is looking as yet.
If you notices in Stalker's "anyway" paragraph on channels, he was looking at the wrong side of the market. for DOM, you have to focus on the controlling side. The "pulled" orders are orders that appeared in the same sizes that were "pulled". This type of action represents a "carrier" sort of set of values.
We can explore the strategies used with the sets of players who are using the "padding" on one side to achieve cetain goals with the actual positions that they are holding among their accounts.
To shorten the ramp up to expert we have gotten the channels started, the YM on the table, and we are functioning with a good focus on "anticipation"
The comments on missing the "best" reversal or (exit then entry) is really shaping up. We are dealing with how much energy is left in the putt as the ball coincides with the distance to the hole and the companion of the missed angle values. Two dimensions.
DOM deals with both direction (angle) and speed (energy). So we are closing in on the kill.
If you put two market trades on your platform from now on (one and exit, the other a reversal), this will drive you to considering a more comprehensive set in your monitoring and it will surface more knowledge in your analysis.
Debrief yourself and find out if you are mixing monitoring and analysis. a clue is making trades based upon one very very recent single observation.
Just as a detail, I usually have an additional order and thus keep three "market" orders punched in and ready to go at all time (this is anticipatory trading)...
One is a double down
One is a double up
and the next single out
The first two are REVERSES
The last is a wash and/or leave if I don't know what to look for next.
As soon as I hit an order, I know exactly what my next order is and am continually monitoring for the horizon of the next order. Immediately, I key punch back in the order that was just sent off so that it's ready to go at a later point (pt1/2/3/FTT/S/R) down the line. I'd take a snapshot of the punch in but it's on a diff machine running right now.
MAK!
One is a double down
One is a double up
and the next single out
The first two are REVERSES
The last is a wash and/or leave if I don't know what to look for next.
As soon as I hit an order, I know exactly what my next order is and am continually monitoring for the horizon of the next order. Immediately, I key punch back in the order that was just sent off so that it's ready to go at a later point (pt1/2/3/FTT/S/R) down the line. I'd take a snapshot of the punch in but it's on a diff machine running right now.
MAK!
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