Quote from Ireland:
laziz314159
thanks for xls and summary of your work so far - will link to esignal. That is a key question I arrived at as I'm sure others are also i.e. how to filter the hitches in a gaussian.
Grob/Mak
In an old document from the msn link posted in the other thread I notice a gaussian is implied to be a fixed length i.e 11 YM bars. Is this the case or is the length in fact variable or can it be derived from the price traversal
My charts so far today to bar 30
Irl
It's great to see the archive being built for us. Can't wait until the NTIS stuff shows up (hint, hint)
When we get to considerations of market pace and volatility, you will see that there are several interrelationships that buttress how the market is operating.
Mentally swing a channel from a very steep negative rocket (short) in a CCW rotation up to a very steep positive rocket (long)
By this you can see that for the traverses in that channel, they take somewhat differing amounts of bars to complete a pair of traverses.
Secondly, you see that at the extremes, gaussians may not even be there as significant factors.
All of the above gives you a picture where I have emphasized just the dimension of pace and it kind of looks like there is not much change in how many bars make up a Gaussian formation. There isn't, it turns out.
At this point, we are considering a trading factor for making money that is this: Do you just ride the trend or you you also trade the traverses or do you just trade the advancing traverses and sideline on the retrace? You also now see the difference between a retrace and a reversal. Pace is one ingredient in this decsion making process. It is like a "climate" of the am or pm sort of thing.
Now we get to go further. Above you have a set of truths and coresponding judgements. You see stalker's Q's changing in level. We are doing that here also.
Now, lets do another series of mental charts by making the same rotation with two different channels from the original above. The above channel is the one of choice for you. It is your standard channel that you think about.
Now choose two channels, one narrow and having low volatility. The other is a high volatility channel and is wide.
This is the standard set of three that help out anywhere you are considering spectrums of variation.
Volatility determines a lot of things. Here you see that as your make the CCW rotation with each channel, that the traverse periodicity is a function of volatility. The relation is a direct one (not inverse) vis a vis volatility and period variation. The number of bars varies as it does because the high/low range of volume is relatively underpowered compared to the movement (pace of the market and seen by the angle of the channel).
This means that more bars (longer periodicity) are involved when volatility is higher for a given market pace.
When a person travels along acquiring a consciousness of market factors and sees them as elements that have character and effects, he then gets to a place where they can be used with other elements. this ever richer array of things, then can be seen and understood according to their influences and ultimate significance for making money.
Attention must be shifted appropriately and the dwell time in that place is also a determinent.
The rest of the post reinforces the above. you have become very sensitive.
As in gliding if something comes up on one dial or indicator, you look at another then another and go back to the original. You can only go so far off the ridgeline to the lee of a montain range before you get into the SWP. To have to dive to maintain the surface performance effects of your ship is not something anyone wants to get caught up in. It isn't fun to report in new carcasses of crashed ships on the lee side of mountains; it is SOP to check the lists before you fly.
As a general comment like the consideration of global warming type thing as compared to sensed climate of a person's lifetime. Times are changing in the markets so truths must be dusted off once in a while.
We are not seeing standard Greenspans (150 points on INDU) as commonly as in the past. News no longer impacts the market since the market is now more sensitized to a global milieu and much more comprehensive data/data derivative delivery. The US actions on interest rates vis avis FOMC are no longer significant.
Another factor certainly is how Rove et al (second string economists), idealistically, have driven our economy into the pits and ended forever the US as a major player. Thankfully, we will return to a opposition controlled Congress in 2006.
