Question for Grob/Hershey...
- Thread starter makosgu
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Mak>I have been trying to understand the info being presented in this thread. As a late started its been a rather formidable task to say the least. Although I understand the crux of what you are saying, could you direct me to the point in these "Question for Grob/Hershey" threads where the initial model was created? That would be great. Thanks.
Mah...
There have been a boatload of posters trying to understand this stuff for years. The "model" predates me... LOL!
Txuk is "SEEING" the picture but I am uncertain as to whether he "GETS IT"!!! It took me the entire afternoon to explain it to my brother. It was a religious experience for him possibility and opportunity-wise and of course now, he is excited about Monday. His knowledge of me being mathematical presented some stumblings as to "where is the complexity, surely there is alot of complexity"... Of course, there is none! I know there are several lurkers who "GET IT" and possibly a few trollers...
Unfortunately, we all have to do as we all have done which is kind of like a scrolling mechanism. The search feature does not cater to scrolling back in time logic and progression wise and the other component is that only we as individuals know when we have reached the place where one can start building their knowledge. In other words, we all have very different beginning points... My beginning point was nearly a 30,000 candle light bulb flicking on. I have a problem with seeing too much of the picture all at once. In other words, I can build a picture from what I know is the truth. So you see the attachments and tools that I have built here are from scratch knowing exactly how pieces fit together... Everyone has to put the pieces together themselves and this ONLY occurs with experience for most. Some things, I do not need experience to know exactly how the piece fits. It is like look at a corner piece in a puzzle scattered across the floor and knowing that it only has 4 possible locations...
Several other PMers have requested as you mention. I can only say that the path is more or less the same (iterative). It is hard for me to locate where any particular person is along the way... Be assured that I am just a peer amongst peers. I just see things a bit differently and work very very hard at them. It is like an archaelogical dig. BRUSH, BRUSH. SWEEP, SWEEP. This is an X piece... It goes there!!!
Kind Regards,
MAK
If two planes were attached with a bungee cordâ¦.. one flying directly above the other. The plane on top (ym) increases its altitude eventually the elasticity in the cord would reach a maximum and the lower plane (es) would be pulled up towards the higher plane. (stretch)
For squeeze, use two magnets with negative ends what happens when they get close, the one in your hand forces the one on the table to move away.
In long markets futures ride above cash, and in down markets cash rides above futures. Because of the correlation (futures YM /futures ES) works tooâ¦
It is the pace and personal knowledge however that determine where risk is low vs. high. i.e. when the apples are ripe for picking. Just because STR/ SQU is present does not necessarily mean that entry should take place. The other pieces have to fit also. (where in the channel are we, what if any formations are occurring, how much knowledge do we have, etc.)
Your excel docs allow the observer to SEE the STR/SQU and PRV
so cool...
These are my picturesâ¦. As I understand it.
EX
For squeeze, use two magnets with negative ends what happens when they get close, the one in your hand forces the one on the table to move away.
In long markets futures ride above cash, and in down markets cash rides above futures. Because of the correlation (futures YM /futures ES) works tooâ¦
It is the pace and personal knowledge however that determine where risk is low vs. high. i.e. when the apples are ripe for picking. Just because STR/ SQU is present does not necessarily mean that entry should take place. The other pieces have to fit also. (where in the channel are we, what if any formations are occurring, how much knowledge do we have, etc.)
Your excel docs allow the observer to SEE the STR/SQU and PRV
so cool...
These are my picturesâ¦. As I understand it.
EX
Whether you should be in or out of the market is precisely in accordance with what you know and how skillful you are. ALOT of traders do not break their trading down to this type of framework. You'll here alot of traders who say "stay out of news". For me, I am geared to staying out of areas that I do not know since it requires more skill then I am capable of. All the time there are posts saying "I do not trade FOMC because it is too risky". For me, risk is associated according to the size of the herd (ie. volume). EXTREME volume, alot of strength pushing the current move... VDU, practically no strength pushing the current move.
As mentioned before, all pieces fit in very cleanly. The bridge between STR/SQU and VOLUME is that the volume will give the strength of the direction. In the current layout, my entry pair is the neutral zone. As a result, I am looking to keep to the right side of the pair. The YM lead will STR/SQU ES. The volume informs me of the amount of strength behind the STR/SQU. A VDU on a STR means that the volatility of the RIGHT SIDE is projecting to be small...
This is gonna be alot of stuff to just "GET". I can see that none of this is really clicking... It is probably a good idea to just file this away for the time being... It can be rehashed later...
Kind Regards,
MAK
Mak
hope the auto show was good. 79 degrees today in NY as you know and you are inside helping us greatly with further effort above and beyond - appreciated by all.
Etlurker - thanks for suggestion on animated GIF - will try that monday for recording.
ok so here's what I think having hit refresh on the gif many times (count is at 48 downloads right now).
1. This revised xls sample would simplify the whole (FV) Fair Value calculation and condense the observation deck to 1 focussed XLS. I remember ages back Mak you posted 2 QT charts side by side of the YM/ES and suggested focussing on just the Y AXIS of both to get a visual of the STR/sQU. The xls provides this in an easier to see format - nice job
2. At 2 different points of the animated gif I noted excess red and excess green on both sides of YM. In one instance where PRV was not in dry up ,the dominant side was apparent ( a SQU). In the second instance PRV was in dry up so I deduced it to be of no significance at that exact point i.e. clarity was awaited. Your subsequent post after this Mak clarified I believe what I was seeing i.e.
hope the auto show was good. 79 degrees today in NY as you know and you are inside helping us greatly with further effort above and beyond - appreciated by all.
Etlurker - thanks for suggestion on animated GIF - will try that monday for recording.
ok so here's what I think having hit refresh on the gif many times (count is at 48 downloads right now).
1. This revised xls sample would simplify the whole (FV) Fair Value calculation and condense the observation deck to 1 focussed XLS. I remember ages back Mak you posted 2 QT charts side by side of the YM/ES and suggested focussing on just the Y AXIS of both to get a visual of the STR/sQU. The xls provides this in an easier to see format - nice job
2. At 2 different points of the animated gif I noted excess red and excess green on both sides of YM. In one instance where PRV was not in dry up ,the dominant side was apparent ( a SQU). In the second instance PRV was in dry up so I deduced it to be of no significance at that exact point i.e. clarity was awaited. Your subsequent post after this Mak clarified I believe what I was seeing i.e.
Just to tie up the STOCH/MACD loose end for Oddi and a few others...
So way back when, Jack/Grob/bubba got connected to a group of ET folks who dealt primarily with indicators. Just as in the current subdivisions, the indicator combinations were broken down into risk profiles, each one having their own set of GO/NO GO data. They are straightforward. Presumably, alot of traders are just the "GO" type and don't spend anytime debrieging the scenarios where the "GO" became "NO GO" and then the usual trolling and flaming ensues a la "it does not work", "backtesting", etc... The STOCH/MACD dealt with how to identify low and high risk states; low risk being rockets, higher level risks being icebergs (1,2,3), and beyond that, SCT... I got screwed sometime after Nwbprop thread was closed simply because instead of one lightbulb turning on, many many lightbulbs turned on simultaneously.
What is nice about STOCH/MACD for any new intraday trader, is that it does a profiling of GROUPS of bars. Most of the time, problems arise right upon entry, traders get the gut wrenching ulcer feeling when things are wavering pos/neg around their entry. It is anything but relaxing for most since the indicators are at best dealing with a group of bars as dictated by its settings. In some sense, it is a type of averaging and categorization of the movement of the average. The groups of bars have characteristics which are delineated by the STOCH/MACD combos. The STOCH/MACD partner each other. The STOCH is a relative indicator. The MACD is an absolute indicator. The risk and "GO/NO GO" have been hashed dozens of times wrt risk...
So how does the current material fit in? As mentioned before, it does fit in neatly. A Mazda slogan comes to mind... "Zoom, Zoom, Zoom!!!". Channels of channels. Groups of traverses and retraces that form a channel. Groups of bars that form a traverse or retrace. Groups of bid/ask pairs that form a bar. Bid/Ask Sizes that must be exceeded to bring about a new bid/ask pair.
So the STOCH/MACD addresses groups of bars (as does channels/traverses/retraces), and the current content can deal with a single bar. You get the "GO" for a rocket and you are looking to zoom out from the current bar to just watching the entwining of the STOCH. However, it will take another 5M before the bar closes and the next bar segment to see if the rocket is failing if you just sweep STOCH/MACD which by itself is fine also. However, the problem is in the psychology of the trader, the impatient factor. Watching for 7M to gather data that the rocket has failed is problematic for most traders. As a result of traders being protective, they yearn for cotinual assurance that in fact there "GO" was a "GO", to avoid the whole "kinda looks" like a "GO". The experienced rocketeer sees and executes a "GO" because there is no "kinda" picture. It just IS a "GO".
So how to combine the two? Well, for some, their indicators work in realtime. My prophet.net charts streams data in realtime but the indicator does not indicate until the bar is closed. A realtime chart indicator indicates through the entire span from open to close of the bar. Watching an RT can be hyper simply because it will be a flagging "GO/NO GO" (ie. for some short period of time, crossing back and forth over +/-80). The STOCH/MACD has limited efficacy within a bar. You can look at the current material as finer tool measurement for current bar analysis (ie. fine tuning the entrance and exits of rockets/icebergs). For me when I get in, I data gather the fine tools with desire to move out to the medium and coarse toolset. My desire to move out to the course toolset because they only require monitoring of the direction of the group of bars. In other words, at entry, I want to be on the fine right side of the market. As I move furthur into the FINE right side of the market, I eventually reach the MEDIUM level right side of the market. At some point at the MEDIUM level, I can begin monitoring the RIGHT side of the COARSE level. I understand this is slightly different than what Grob does but this is how it works for me because of the whole assurance of seeing that I am at the correct right side of the market from whichever level I am trading at.
As an example, I may want to rocket trade daily bars. I get a "GO" based on the close of the previous days bar (+/-80, non-neutral MACD DIVERGENCE, FAST/EXTREME volume). So the COARSE measurement going forward is the STOCH entwining according to rocket profile). For entry, I immediately data gather the right side of the FUTURES/CASH STR/SQU. STR. "GO!" SWEEP! Zoom Out! I then data gather the right side of the 5M bar (abstract STR/SQU). "STR!" SWEEP Zoom Out! I then data gather the right side of the 30M bar (abstract STR/SQU). "STR" Zoom Out! ...SWEEP,SWEEP,SWEEEP...Zoom Out! Eventually I am at the right side of the DAILY bar. ENTWINE=> Next day, sweep for a failed rocket (ie. FAILURE TO ENTWINE, break back into taped zone)...
I know this is a very general picture, but I am hoping that this completes the connection between the current bar content (PRV/STR/SQU) and groups of bar content (STOCH/MACD). Judging by PM's, at one point a nearly full box, it is going way over people's heads which is exactly what I did not want to happen... Either that or all is exactly how Easy mentions and the group here are all beginner level traders which of course, is OK too...
Nonetheless
Kind Regards,
MAK
So way back when, Jack/Grob/bubba got connected to a group of ET folks who dealt primarily with indicators. Just as in the current subdivisions, the indicator combinations were broken down into risk profiles, each one having their own set of GO/NO GO data. They are straightforward. Presumably, alot of traders are just the "GO" type and don't spend anytime debrieging the scenarios where the "GO" became "NO GO" and then the usual trolling and flaming ensues a la "it does not work", "backtesting", etc... The STOCH/MACD dealt with how to identify low and high risk states; low risk being rockets, higher level risks being icebergs (1,2,3), and beyond that, SCT... I got screwed sometime after Nwbprop thread was closed simply because instead of one lightbulb turning on, many many lightbulbs turned on simultaneously.
What is nice about STOCH/MACD for any new intraday trader, is that it does a profiling of GROUPS of bars. Most of the time, problems arise right upon entry, traders get the gut wrenching ulcer feeling when things are wavering pos/neg around their entry. It is anything but relaxing for most since the indicators are at best dealing with a group of bars as dictated by its settings. In some sense, it is a type of averaging and categorization of the movement of the average. The groups of bars have characteristics which are delineated by the STOCH/MACD combos. The STOCH/MACD partner each other. The STOCH is a relative indicator. The MACD is an absolute indicator. The risk and "GO/NO GO" have been hashed dozens of times wrt risk...
So how does the current material fit in? As mentioned before, it does fit in neatly. A Mazda slogan comes to mind... "Zoom, Zoom, Zoom!!!". Channels of channels. Groups of traverses and retraces that form a channel. Groups of bars that form a traverse or retrace. Groups of bid/ask pairs that form a bar. Bid/Ask Sizes that must be exceeded to bring about a new bid/ask pair.
So the STOCH/MACD addresses groups of bars (as does channels/traverses/retraces), and the current content can deal with a single bar. You get the "GO" for a rocket and you are looking to zoom out from the current bar to just watching the entwining of the STOCH. However, it will take another 5M before the bar closes and the next bar segment to see if the rocket is failing if you just sweep STOCH/MACD which by itself is fine also. However, the problem is in the psychology of the trader, the impatient factor. Watching for 7M to gather data that the rocket has failed is problematic for most traders. As a result of traders being protective, they yearn for cotinual assurance that in fact there "GO" was a "GO", to avoid the whole "kinda looks" like a "GO". The experienced rocketeer sees and executes a "GO" because there is no "kinda" picture. It just IS a "GO".
So how to combine the two? Well, for some, their indicators work in realtime. My prophet.net charts streams data in realtime but the indicator does not indicate until the bar is closed. A realtime chart indicator indicates through the entire span from open to close of the bar. Watching an RT can be hyper simply because it will be a flagging "GO/NO GO" (ie. for some short period of time, crossing back and forth over +/-80). The STOCH/MACD has limited efficacy within a bar. You can look at the current material as finer tool measurement for current bar analysis (ie. fine tuning the entrance and exits of rockets/icebergs). For me when I get in, I data gather the fine tools with desire to move out to the medium and coarse toolset. My desire to move out to the course toolset because they only require monitoring of the direction of the group of bars. In other words, at entry, I want to be on the fine right side of the market. As I move furthur into the FINE right side of the market, I eventually reach the MEDIUM level right side of the market. At some point at the MEDIUM level, I can begin monitoring the RIGHT side of the COARSE level. I understand this is slightly different than what Grob does but this is how it works for me because of the whole assurance of seeing that I am at the correct right side of the market from whichever level I am trading at.
As an example, I may want to rocket trade daily bars. I get a "GO" based on the close of the previous days bar (+/-80, non-neutral MACD DIVERGENCE, FAST/EXTREME volume). So the COARSE measurement going forward is the STOCH entwining according to rocket profile). For entry, I immediately data gather the right side of the FUTURES/CASH STR/SQU. STR. "GO!" SWEEP! Zoom Out! I then data gather the right side of the 5M bar (abstract STR/SQU). "STR!" SWEEP Zoom Out! I then data gather the right side of the 30M bar (abstract STR/SQU). "STR" Zoom Out! ...SWEEP,SWEEP,SWEEEP...Zoom Out! Eventually I am at the right side of the DAILY bar. ENTWINE=> Next day, sweep for a failed rocket (ie. FAILURE TO ENTWINE, break back into taped zone)...
I know this is a very general picture, but I am hoping that this completes the connection between the current bar content (PRV/STR/SQU) and groups of bar content (STOCH/MACD). Judging by PM's, at one point a nearly full box, it is going way over people's heads which is exactly what I did not want to happen... Either that or all is exactly how Easy mentions and the group here are all beginner level traders which of course, is OK too...
Nonetheless
Kind Regards,
MAK
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