Quote from easyrider:
When discussing risk I think there is another factor that needs to be included and that is direction. Jack labels the situation Im talking about a High Volatilty Stall. You have plenty of volatility and plenty of volume but no direction and these are risky situations for most of us. The rocket uses the MACD to make sure you have direction along with the volume and volatility. What Im saying is that just because you have high volume does not always mean it is a low risk situation, unless you are an expert.
A few comments...
On the PRV side of the eqn, waiting for the DU level to be reached (ie. current bars volume to exceed VDU) appears to a reliable threshold with regards to the stability of the volume projection. Yesterday I mentioned the instability of the PRV at the beginning of bars and the reasons for the instability. We had several VDU's yesterday that were signaled long before the end of the bar.
Anthony, I got your PM and will find some time to take a look at the IB debacle that some of you are encountering. I am firm believer in very strict pictures. When you see the same sets of and groups of sets of pictures, it only becomes easier and easier to build confidence on what's going on and more importantly, what to do.
As to what easy mentions here, he and I have a difference of perspective which I will attempt to explain. His comment has given me some ideas for some other simple tools that can improve the pictures some of you have. I don't deam myself to be an expert but that is simply because I know and see where the summit is and that is still a bit down the path, however it is within sight.
So our difference of perspectives resides in our orientations it would appear. The way I see things is the difference between looking at a basket of apples as opposed to picking individual apples. For me, the STOCH and MACD is like the basket. You wait for the right conditions under which apples just fall off the tree. Without using STOCH and MACD, each bar of whichever fractal is an apple. Some apples just require more effort in harvesting/picking. When dealing with STOCH and MACD, your direction is with regards to GROUPS of bars. It is simply a matter of context. Rockets/Icebergs 1,2,3 last for many many bars. From an M/W perspective, there is the context of having 4 apples to pick. The fast pace first leg and the last pace fourth leg are the easy apples. The second and third leg are the slower pace higher risk apples to pick. In an SCT framework, every bar is an apple. As a result each bar of an HVS is an apple to pick. From an W/M perspective and/or groups of bars the HVS is a disruption in the larger context, hence the STALL component of HVS.
My presumption had been that folks just simply attack the market bar by bar. Thus an HVS, in a bar by bar context, is less risky. If one were to pull apart an HVS into individual bars as opposed to a collection of bars, you may find it easier to notice that each individual bar had a sustained direction that did not require frequent reversals. To be a bit more specific, when looking at each individual bar of the HVS, the FLAGGING of the bar will extend in a dominant direction. This is how I am associating the risk. As you move down the pace spectrum, the direction of the FLAGGING flips flops more and more frequently simply because there is no dominating volume bias. However, this is just how I have come to understand and debriefed the matter with pictures and screen time as usual. We all have different pictures it seams. May be I just see things a little differently.
We all know there are many ways to dice things up. So there are a few more tools will need to flesh out and discuss regarding direction. In a hierarchical framework, the leading asset has a direction, the DOM of the lagging asset has a direction, Volume has a direction, Bars have a direction, groups of bars consituted traverses and retraces have a direction, groups of traverses and retraces constituting a channel have a direction, channels of channels have a direction. Context is very important...
Kind Regards,
MAK