Quest for the Next Big Tradable Trend
- Thread starter lynx2004
- Start date
short oil.
hank
hank
Yes dividend was paid on 1/7 & 1/11 2005. The first short position was closed on 12/20 the ex dividend date in that one made only 20c . Then the second short position was established on 12/27 & 12/28 around $34 that one was covered around $31. That one was the major down move.
Did not reshort from 31.20 level which stock made its next down move...
However I am sure some other people are holding their shorts...
Quote from hank rollins:
short oil.
hank
yes when we see the first signs that the global economy is slowing down, shorting oil could be a huge play -- all this Peak Oil stuff and oil to $100 is the kind of headlines you hear when markets are approaching a top. I like the contrarian play of shorting oil but when is the right time? May be in the spring...I think this time it'll surprise a lot of people when both oil and stock prices start going down in tandem...
I remember late 1998 when they couldn't give away crude at $10/bbl. That was only 6 years ago.
Quote from lynx2004:
Yeah the forward premium for the feb05 fut is about 10 points to the index just as the front month is going off the board (I think jan05 goes off next tuesday jan 18th) ..
I get the feeling that a vol spike is just around the corner...Is there another way to get long volatility (w/o buying individual index options)? I'm not big enough to call a bank for a vol swap.
Well, as each week passes and the VIX drops lower, or so it seeems, the VBI gets more and more tempting, despite the premium to spot. I see so little liquidity here, I sense that no one is playing this contract. How come? Is this something one should stay away from? Or at least wait for a break out?
I have also been watching VBI (VIX future) over the last few weeks and am wondering about the same questions...VIX keep dribbling lower while the premium also seem to erode each week as nothing big happens. Is there anyone here who has experience trading the VBI future? I am trying to find a way to get long implied vol -- this could be the biggest trade for 2005 if only one can time it!