Quest for the Next Big Tradable Trend

Quote from BlueHorseshoe:

http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuo...mtfh14263_2004-12-16_16-56-41_n1674866_newsml


I've been considering VIX for tradeable trend for '05 but remain unconvinced. Likely the downtrend will come to an end and we might get some chop. Some interesting and related comments by Merrill strategist in the link above.

Comments on USD sound right on.
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Interesting list..."major financial company will be brought to its knees in 2005" someone w/ major bond exposure probably...who does he have in mind?

Yes long vol will be a great play i think. How best to play it? VBI future on CFE?
 
Quote from lynx2004:

What's the best way to play a downturn/recession of the Chinese economy? Is there a tradable insrument available to people living outside of China?

I would think the HangSeng (HSI Futures @ HKFE) would be correlated...is there any other direct way?
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Also CHN may be a good play on the short side to build a position, as it is trading at a very hefty premium(closed end fund). As of today it is almost %38 premium.
Closed end funds may trade at discounts and premiums & and if there are bad news the funds with w/ extreme high premiums like CHN may go down considerably...
etf link is below..
http://www.etfconnect.com/select/fundPages/global.asp?MFID=8002
 
Quote from BlueHorseshoe:

http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuo...mtfh14263_2004-12-16_16-56-41_n1674866_newsml


I've been considering VIX for tradeable trend for '05 but remain unconvinced. Likely the downtrend will come to an end and we might get some chop. Some interesting and related comments by Merrill strategist in the link above.

Comments on USD sound right on.
More...

Bernstein missed 2003 rally completely and was predicting prolonged bear market in the fall of 2003 based on his mean reversion model.

DVB
 
Quote from BlueHorseshoe:

http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuo...mtfh14263_2004-12-16_16-56-41_n1674866_newsml


I've been considering VIX for tradeable trend for '05 but remain unconvinced. Likely the downtrend will come to an end and we might get some chop. Some interesting and related comments by Merrill strategist in the link above.

Comments on USD sound right on.
More...

Oh there are now Unidentified Financial Objects (UFO) :D

NEW YORK, Dec 16 (Reuters) - Richard Bernstein, chief U.S. strategist at Merrill Lynch, the largest U.S. stock broker, predicts an unidentified "major financial company" will be brought to its knees in 2005 by rising interest rates.
 
Quote from DVB:

Bernstein missed 2003 rally completely and was predicting prolonged bear market in the fall of 2003 based on his mean reversion model.

DVB
More...

So what is your point? Nevermind, I know you don't have one.

I for one am happy to consider his IDEAS at face value.
 
Quote from BlueHorseshoe:

http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuo...mtfh14263_2004-12-16_16-56-41_n1674866_newsml


I've been considering VIX for tradeable trend for '05 but remain unconvinced. Likely the downtrend will come to an end and we might get some chop. Some interesting and related comments by Merrill strategist in the link above.

Comments on USD sound right on.
More...

Those surprises do seem achievable in 2005 with what is happening today.

#1 With $50 oil and China hitting over 7.5% GDP this year, ya would think that inflation is out of control but the 10 year still trades below all the rate hikes. I did get a kick out of that "China is selling US debt" just after Thanksgiving. Its amazing people would believe they would do such a thing. Ha!

#6 This could be JPM and their derivative monster. Its hard to pick a financial company with more obvious potential skeletons than JPM.
 
Quote from BlueHorseshoe:

So what is your point? Nevermind, I know you don't have one.

I for one am happy to consider his IDEAS at face value.
More...

First of all thank you for posting the link. Any additional information is always appreciated, and I did not mean to offend you if I did.

My point is that strategists at big investment banks are for entertainment purposes only. They are Ph.D.s, they are smart in the eyes of a public, and they write beautiful reports. It seems that they are there for marketing purposes only. If you are an investment practitioner, it will be next to impossible to use strategists' "forecasts" for investment decisions. Plus making ten predictions is very convenient, statistically one of them will come true. And if this is the case, Bernstein will be presented as a prophet to the general public at the end of 2005. I belive Barron's has a poll at the end of the year of all big-shot strategists to see what their take for next year is, and to review their prior forecasts. Readers of Barrons are amazed to see that some of their predictions for prior year were very accurate, the problem is it is always a different person who is correct.

DVB
 
Quote from DVB:


My point is that strategists at big investment banks are for entertainment purposes only. They are Ph.D.s, they are smart in the eyes of a public, and they write beautiful reports ...

DVB
More...


Standard Yahoo-board dogma - did you cut 'n paste that?

I don't give a damn whether one is right or wrong, but I value anyone who can make a reasoned argument and make me think. THAT is what they are paid for.

This guy offered up ten big ideas for '05 that I thought were worth considering. You looked right past the ideas and sneered at him.

So, I've got ten ideas from Mr. Bernstein and uhh, how many from you??? I seem to have misplaced those ... nevermind.
 
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