Quest for the Next Big Tradable Trend

[DVB]

Quote from BlueHorseshoe:


I don't give a damn whether one is right or wrong, but I value anyone who can make a reasoned argument and make me think. THAT is what they are paid for.

... so it takes other people to through ideas around to make you think?

 

[lynx2004]

At some point vols will spike. It's just a matter of time. I'm looking to find the best way to get long vol. Buying wings probably is not the best way. I'm looking into VIX futures (VBI) -- anyone here have experience with it?

near-term contract (Jan05) is currently quoted 133.10 at 134.40 (last trade 134.00)

(it's 10 times the VIX)


http://www.cboe.com/products/indexopts/vixfutures_spec.aspx

 

[ckor30]

Are you able to short CHN?

Quote from traderbal:

Also CHN may be a good play on the short side to build a position, as it is trading at a very hefty premium(closed end fund). As of today it is almost %38 premium.
Closed end funds may trade at discounts and premiums & and if there are bad news the funds with w/ extreme high premiums like CHN may go down considerably...
etf link is below..
http://www.etfconnect.com/select/fundPages/global.asp?MFID=8002

 

[traderbal]

Yes, you can short CHN. It is shortable, no problems in that front.
FXI is not shortable though and it is trading almost at its NAV(%0.67 premium).
So CHN with a hefty premium-call it irrational exuberance (as of today it may be 42%) may be very rewarding on the short side.

 

[BlueHorseshoe]

Quote from lynx2004:

At some point vols will spike. It's just a matter of time. I'm looking to find the best way to get long vol. Buying wings probably is not the best way. I'm looking into VIX futures (VBI) -- anyone here have experience with it?

near-term contract (Jan05) is currently quoted 133.10 at 134.40 (last trade 134.00)

(it's 10 times the VIX)


http://www.cboe.com/products/indexopts/vixfutures_spec.aspx

I looked at this but .... I hate paying that premium to spot. In this type of scenario I prefer to initiate the position by shorting puts. Alas no options available on the futures contract.

I might reconsider buying a position if we get a sharp spike under 10 on the VIX and the forward premiums come in a bit. Otherwise there are simply too many other opportunities out there.

 

[traderbal]

Anybody did the CHN short trade that was mentioned..
It worked out great...

 

[MadBulgarian]

Higher demand for wheat and whole grains as consumers no longer want "white flour" cloging thier colons. :eek:

 

[ckor30]

I asked 3 brokers, unavailable for short.

Quote from traderbal:

Anybody did the CHN short trade that was mentioned..
It worked out great...

 

[lynx2004]

Quote from BlueHorseshoe:

I looked at this but .... I hate paying that premium to spot. In this type of scenario I prefer to initiate the position by shorting puts. Alas no options available on the futures contract.

I might reconsider buying a position if we get a sharp spike under 10 on the VIX and the forward premiums come in a bit. Otherwise there are simply too many other opportunities out there.

Yeah the forward premium for the feb05 fut is about 10 points to the index just as the front month is going off the board (I think jan05 goes off next tuesday jan 18th) ..

I get the feeling that a vol spike is just around the corner...Is there another way to get long volatility (w/o buying individual index options)? I'm not big enough to call a bank for a vol swap.

 

[traderbal]

Quote from ckor30:

Are you able to short CHN?

Irrational exuberance in CHN almost coming to an end stock went down more than 4pts. Now below 30...29.61..
Short posn worked great still at a high prem....