QQQ heading for 9-11 levels?
- Thread starter topguntrader
- Start date
selling when QQQ breaks 33.... bought at 29 and change...NIce 10-13% gain not bad for 1 week
This is my second round to go in on the QQQ. As you can see from my previous post and trades here I was close to predicting bottom and top in last 6-8 weeks ( 29 and 33 and change respectively). We are again heading down... I am watching for a break below the 27.00 range.. I will start loading up again if we get there... I beleive the bottom could be below 29 level this time around... If am wrong I will just watch the market shoot up w/o any positions...
Topgun,
Not sure if you have access to the A/D line of the Nas 100, it is on TC-2000. Unfortunately it not only broke the February low it took out the Sept Lows. To me this is a negative divergence that means a few of the bigger stocks are holding up the price.
Last time I played with you, this time I wish you luck.
The only thing that looks good at this point is how bad things look. Many charts look more like waterfalls which tends to indicate at least a short term bottom.
Still holding some QQQ in my longer term accounts, so Im not short, but am giving some consideration to lightening the load.
Regards
Not sure if you have access to the A/D line of the Nas 100, it is on TC-2000. Unfortunately it not only broke the February low it took out the Sept Lows. To me this is a negative divergence that means a few of the bigger stocks are holding up the price.
Last time I played with you, this time I wish you luck.
The only thing that looks good at this point is how bad things look. Many charts look more like waterfalls which tends to indicate at least a short term bottom.
Still holding some QQQ in my longer term accounts, so Im not short, but am giving some consideration to lightening the load.
Regards
Have you guys never heard of Bullish percent indicators, Volatility indexes, Head&Shoulder-patters and Elliot-waves?
For a long term fundamental play (no technicals) buy WCOM, but not for more then 10% of your working capital, and preferably below $1.5 or less. It is worth fundamentally some $12.31, which makes it a sell at $18 to 20$ (in let's say 1 to 2 years).
For a mid term play: buy NVDA below $31, with a target of $70 and then $97. It is worth fundamentally $58.01, and is still in an uptrend (look at weekly 3 year charts, logaritmic). Especially since (only) the large-caps are oversold.
Stay away from mid- and small-caps, and large caps with high P/E's.
My strategy? I use volatility indexes, Bullish percent indicators and volume as sentiment indicators (fear is a bullish sign: the market takes from the masses! Examples will follow). I use weekly charts on nasdaq (I only trade tech-stock becouse of there high volatility and volume) with CCI and stochatics as a general market timing tool, and the same indicators on a daily chart for entry. I also use Bollinger Bands (2.5-17) on the daily charts. I then search undervalued stocks in a longer term uptrend near support. To find undervalued stocks I make my own specific calculations which I put into a database to keep (have collected some 300 stock I can trace simultaneously) and update in less the 2 minutes. A stock also must have synchronisity with the nasdaq.
About those examples:
Remember the climat after 9/11? The world was ending, fear was rampant, and while the masses were getting scared out of there positions, the smart money was buying them up. Result: We rallied some 700 points! and the undervalued techs trippled.
Remember when nasdaq was above 2000? The economy was turning and getting out of the recession, the sky was again the limit, and while the masses were buying up stocks, the smart money was selling it to them. We've lost some 500 points on nasdaq since, and still aren't there yet.
Why do you think that happens? Simple, 5% makes money on the other 95%, and that 5% has 50% of all the money in the world. That is also why market makers always state the obviuos: now they are downgrading (duh!) becouse the need to scare people to get their own orders filled. Any beginner will tel you that just after he sold, the stock finally went up, and when he tought it was a strong ising stock and bought it, it dropped. It is the game of greed and fear created by the big money! And the big money ALWAYS win, becouse the make the rules! DON'T FIGHT THEM! And the easiest way to see that are the bullish percent indicators.
So what are the markets telling me wright now?
My first target is 1500 on nasdaq since the beginning of march, and still is, becouse fear isn't large enough yet. It is getting time for cumulating selected undervalued stocks (like NVDA), but you have to give it some time (say 2-4 months) before you sell them, and some 2 to 4 weeks before we bottom, and up to another 3 weeks befor we realy are trending upward again.
Has any-one noticed the ellio-wave-like fall since we topped last? Two waves down, and building the third wright now (becouse we've just broken this years low). I might take us even below 9/11 though I think 1500 will hold this time around. My first long target is 1870 on nasdaq, possibly 1950, but if we break 2100 this time around we may finally get out of the bear-market. The 3 downward waves on nasdaq proves we're still in a bear-market.
Anyway, buying once we hit close to 1500 is never a bad idea, and it will always make you money. but you haveto be in the wright stocks, meaning UNDERVALUED LARGE-CAPS IN A LONG TERM UPTREND!
Good luck!
For a mid term play: buy NVDA below $31, with a target of $70 and then $97. It is worth fundamentally $58.01, and is still in an uptrend (look at weekly 3 year charts, logaritmic). Especially since (only) the large-caps are oversold.
Stay away from mid- and small-caps, and large caps with high P/E's.
My strategy? I use volatility indexes, Bullish percent indicators and volume as sentiment indicators (fear is a bullish sign: the market takes from the masses! Examples will follow). I use weekly charts on nasdaq (I only trade tech-stock becouse of there high volatility and volume) with CCI and stochatics as a general market timing tool, and the same indicators on a daily chart for entry. I also use Bollinger Bands (2.5-17) on the daily charts. I then search undervalued stocks in a longer term uptrend near support. To find undervalued stocks I make my own specific calculations which I put into a database to keep (have collected some 300 stock I can trace simultaneously) and update in less the 2 minutes. A stock also must have synchronisity with the nasdaq.
About those examples:
Remember the climat after 9/11? The world was ending, fear was rampant, and while the masses were getting scared out of there positions, the smart money was buying them up. Result: We rallied some 700 points! and the undervalued techs trippled.
Remember when nasdaq was above 2000? The economy was turning and getting out of the recession, the sky was again the limit, and while the masses were buying up stocks, the smart money was selling it to them. We've lost some 500 points on nasdaq since, and still aren't there yet.
Why do you think that happens? Simple, 5% makes money on the other 95%, and that 5% has 50% of all the money in the world. That is also why market makers always state the obviuos: now they are downgrading (duh!) becouse the need to scare people to get their own orders filled. Any beginner will tel you that just after he sold, the stock finally went up, and when he tought it was a strong ising stock and bought it, it dropped. It is the game of greed and fear created by the big money! And the big money ALWAYS win, becouse the make the rules! DON'T FIGHT THEM! And the easiest way to see that are the bullish percent indicators.
So what are the markets telling me wright now?
My first target is 1500 on nasdaq since the beginning of march, and still is, becouse fear isn't large enough yet. It is getting time for cumulating selected undervalued stocks (like NVDA), but you have to give it some time (say 2-4 months) before you sell them, and some 2 to 4 weeks before we bottom, and up to another 3 weeks befor we realy are trending upward again.
Has any-one noticed the ellio-wave-like fall since we topped last? Two waves down, and building the third wright now (becouse we've just broken this years low). I might take us even below 9/11 though I think 1500 will hold this time around. My first long target is 1870 on nasdaq, possibly 1950, but if we break 2100 this time around we may finally get out of the bear-market. The 3 downward waves on nasdaq proves we're still in a bear-market.
Anyway, buying once we hit close to 1500 is never a bad idea, and it will always make you money. but you haveto be in the wright stocks, meaning UNDERVALUED LARGE-CAPS IN A LONG TERM UPTREND!
Good luck!
Ok, so everyone and their brother are looking for the inevitable retest of the Sep lows:
"I'll cover my shorts into the panic stop loss orders." or
"The smart money piled in last time -- I'm not gonna make the same mistake this time --
I'm gonna back up the truck when it make news lows ..."
But the market rarely does what you want it to do. (duh -- what an original pearl of wisdom! LOL!)
So my question:
What happens if it doesn't reach the Sep lows, but turns quick, starts to rally, and makes the dreaded "Higher Low"?
Will we be off to the races for a few months as people chase the 'summer rally'?
Just a diabolical thought .... and a great way for Mother Bear to suck in a fresh supply of new money! :eek:
"I'll cover my shorts into the panic stop loss orders." or
"The smart money piled in last time -- I'm not gonna make the same mistake this time --
I'm gonna back up the truck when it make news lows ..."
But the market rarely does what you want it to do. (duh -- what an original pearl of wisdom! LOL!)
So my question:
What happens if it doesn't reach the Sep lows, but turns quick, starts to rally, and makes the dreaded "Higher Low"?
Will we be off to the races for a few months as people chase the 'summer rally'?
Just a diabolical thought .... and a great way for Mother Bear to suck in a fresh supply of new money! :eek:
3dog, that is interesting. I don't want to sprain my brain from all that thinking but I did notice that Cramer poo-poohed the idea of the QQQ reaching 9/11 lows. He has been so cold lately that I would fade him.
Also the components of QQQ are in really bad shape with some big caps already well under 9/11 lows. This is a repeat of what happened before early Sept. when the index wasn't as weak as some of its underlying components.
Also the components of QQQ are in really bad shape with some big caps already well under 9/11 lows. This is a repeat of what happened before early Sept. when the index wasn't as weak as some of its underlying components.
I believe it will even break it down. 800 is what most technical analysts predict. With such a bearish view, it may be the final bottom. Nasdaq trying to catch SP500.