QQQ heading for 9-11 levels?

Originally posted by mmuloin
I don't know what the bottom will be for the Q's; however if you gauge the overall tech sector sentiment this week, it is overly bearish. This is usually when sharp reversals occur.

MM
More...

Yes it is, but the smart money will short the crap out of the market on any rally. My prediction (I'm using my backup crystal bowl, because my good one broke while moving) is:

Bounce at 1120-1140 NDX 28.00-28.50 QQQ rally tops at 1180-1220 NDX 29.50-30.50. Then a test of september lows come. I don't think that anyone managing money at this point will put money in tech stocks unless the September lows are tested. Consequently, I believe this market can only squeeze its way up and not go up due to investment buying. But what do I know, I'm just a small time trader in shark infested waters.

Tony
 
What is interesting to me is since 2000 when the Nasdaq puked....there have been two specific points in every year where you looked at the Nasdaq and said...gee...6-12 months from now we have to be higher.....in fact this is the case....a big bounce in short period of time...but after that.....lower lows....until now here we are ORCL @ $8ish....CSCO @ $13ish.....QQQ <$30.....obviously there is going to be a nice trading bounce soon here. However will this finally be the time that we get a legitiamte forward advance?? Take a look at NVDA & QLGC...sums up everything....the range of these stocks after the attacks saw the $25 & $18 levels respectively.....By X-mas both of these stock had more than tripled.......Now look at where they are today......back where we started.....For traders that have been going flat nigthly or who have exercised good timing, they have made out well here. Other than that, you have to pick your spots and be able to see the next coming trend. Eventhough, right now everyone and their brother is getting sell signals.....the trend is long....in other words, buy yourself some QQQ @ $29.00. In three or five months, it will not matter if you payed $27 or $29........Obviously for those hardcore scalpers, flippers, or swing traders, void my message.......................................................
 
Optionplayer,

Funny I saw your post after I finished looking at the Charts of the companies comprising QQQ and came to the same conclusion. I am playing it the same way I did in Sept which is to sell puts Jan 03 and 04 and just wait. If we get a rally, which I expect I will close them out, if not I guess I will just get a few more q's to add to my well diversified portfolio of junky stocks.

The interesting thing is that 60 of the companies are above their Sept lows. 39 Companies are below their September Lows. And good old Mr Softee is right on the boarder. The chart could play out the same as September, but we won't now until the next right edge where we have to make these decisions.

Have a good weekend.
 
Originally posted by TonyOz


I don't think that anyone managing money at this point will put money in tech stocks unless the September lows are tested. Consequently, I believe this market can only squeeze its way up and not go up due to investment buying.

Tony
More...

Ya' know - sometimes it is good to have someone remind us of the bigger picture. I think you have summed up the current downturn quite well.
What company trader, follower of the pack, would dare invest substantial funds in any of the currently falling nasdaq stocks.

Results - no bottom here yet.

Alternative idea - there are so many short positions among so many investors and traders that this IS considered a good market. Like harvesting money from people who panic and start selling their investments. Easier than finding new money to put into the markets to push prices up!
 
I'm not saying that I love the upside of the Naz right now...but I do love the fact that the whole world is short, and keeps on selling. When there's blood on the streets....(maybe Tuesday afternoon or wednesday late morning) short term players might be set for a wicked bounce. Let's see how Monday plays out...have fun this weekend!!!!
 
than Sept? Why not 25 or 22?

I am not prognosticating this but why are we so focused on a "September retest" with a tacit belief that it will hold?
 
The reason I see September lows as critical is that I can't remember a time when the world both politically and financially felt more bleak. Yet somehow we pulled off a fantastic rally. I lost some money shorting as downtrend lines got smashed. And lost even more by selling way too soon like a little chicken.

As for now, I would rather have seen 32 hold, and I would fully expect if we get a rally it will be strong resistance in the short term. But if we do break September lows all bets on my thesis are off, and I am only playing with a small portion of my capital.

And as volume said, people are really negative on tech and maybe with good reason but I have to think that world expansion of technology is inevitable. Emerging markets have been screaming all year, won't they need tech at some point?
 
Originally posted by trdrmac
And as volume said, people are really negative on tech and maybe with good reason but I have to think that world expansion of technology is inevitable. Emerging markets have been screaming all year, won't they need tech at some point?
More...

What you are referring to is earnings. Every pundit on CNBC has been offering the earnings theory as the saviour of the markets. However, earnings have nothing to do with the market.

If you look at previous market downturns, earnings did not signal a return to higher levels. The market turned up before earnings rolled in. What rules the market is valuation or how much earnings are worth. We have witnessed massive multiple compression in the past 2 years and it will be a long time until we see multiple expansion.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top