puddles 2011 trade journal (formerly a 70k bet..)

Quote from Sam Morgan:


This is something I have always wondered. Let's say your limit was $21.00, you hit the price and it's a good day, so it never comes back to see that $21.00. Why wouldn't you put your new stop at $21.00 and trail it as far as it takes you.

This was just a thought, as I know you have a system set and follow it with through discipline. I do admire your strength to follow what you have planned.
More...

that question gets asked a fair bit.. here's my coles notes.

- this isn't my full time job so i'm not always in front of my screens, even if i am i can be pulled away at any moment by other obligations. hard stops/tgts let the trade play out unattended
- if the market and stock is trending and i'm in front of my screens i will try to let a back half (usually more like back 1/4 or 1/3) run to a larger target.
- i don't do the back half trades enough to have a decent sample size to estimate a realstic win rate range. i'm still not sure it's an EV+ proposition. obviously we can cherry pick examples where I might have left $5.00/share on the table, but we'll probably conveniently miss the ones that clip the tgt and rush back to entry/stop too.
 
10:20

LONG X 57.13
STOP 57.90
TGT 57.59

10:20

SHORT BAX 48.68
STOP 48.93
TGT 48.72

out -0.07

x stop already bumped up to b/e

10:50

LONG RIMM 64.24
STOP 64.24
TGT 64.81

out b/e

ugghhh, i sized it wrong for a .71 tgt..
 
Quote from puddles:

12:12

LONG APC 78.17
STOP 77.96
TGT 78.59

tilty trade i fired off.. will prob end up losing this..
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Yep, your are too late to get in,
it should close at highs though. I don't know if you will hold till close.

You are better gettig out for a small loss and then look for an entry around 77/50 if it shows atrength after lunch.
 
Quote from puddles:

12:12

LONG APC 78.17
STOP 77.96
TGT 78.59

tilty trade i fired off.. will prob end up losing this..
More...

Let me give you a OBSERVATION that I have learned over the years.... 3 waves...on a 5 min chart...Only for runners like APC today (meaning no deep pullback.) PLUS market holds gains.


Do not enter after 3 waves/ take profits after 3 waves.
May be worth something some day.
 
<img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20110111/spy.png">

<img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20110111/x.png">

<img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20110111/bax.png">

<img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20110111/rimm.png">

<img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20110111/apc.png">

<img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20110111/fdo.png">

10:20

LONG X 57.13
STOP 57.90
TGT 57.59

- Gaps up with SPY
- SPY tanks, X goes
- Long over the higher low
- out b/e

10:20

SHORT BAX 48.68
STOP 48.93
TGT 48.72

- Huge weakness from the open
- Good looking daily for a short
- Short under the tight lower high
- out -0.07

10:50

LONG RIMM 64.43
STOP 64.24
TGT 64.81

- Same story as X, lotta good heat, just one ugly pullback bar but price is way beyond that bar
- The entry was set up based on the red bar using the 1c below the bottom of it for a stop, the next bar just closed when my long got triggered and I should have used the prior bar for a stop (.29). Unfortunately my trade would need to be sized larger for a .29 stop so I stuck with my original .24 stop and .81 tgt rather than using .29/.71.
- RIMM gets to .71, not .81. bah
- out b/e

12:12

LONG APC 78.17
STOP 77.96
TGT 78.59

- Get into the office and see my RIMM trade out B/E..
- red on a day I should probably be 1-1-1 and showing some green.
- APC strong through the day, long over the bar at the highs
- 12-1 not the greatest time frame to enter a trade
- out -0.25

15:13

SHORT FDO 43.26
STOP 43.31
TGT 43.16

- FDO on my daily short watch list
- Huge market weakness at 1pm
- SPY trying to come off the lows from 2pm
- FDO continues it's weakness
- Get short the tight lower high hoping for the weakness to continue and maybe another market selloff to take us to tgt.
- out -0.15

http://puddles.humanfund.ca/wp/2011/01/11/2011-01-11-trades/
 
9:36

SHORT TGT 55.24
STOP 55.36
TGT 55.00

out b/e

a polite request to please refrain from posting other's trades and unsolicited advice in this journal ..
 
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