puddles 2011 trade journal (formerly a 70k bet..)

<img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20110118/spy.png">

<img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20110118/sndk.png">

<img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20110118/rig.png">

<img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20110118/pot.png">

9:51

SHORT SNDK 52.07
STOP 52.21
TGT 51.79

- Market heads higer
- SNDK selling from the oepn
- I was a little worried about crossing .00 but took the trade anyways
- Whipped out, then got through .00 but never to tgt
- out -0.23

10:56

LONG RIG 81.01
STOP 80.87
TGT 80.29

- RIG makes a pretty triangle up to resistance/HOD/Round #
- SPY near it's lows at this point
- RIG ticks over, fills me and heads back under resist.
- out -0.23

14:10

LONG POT 174.14
STOP 173.93
TGT 174.56

- SPY ranging at it's highs
- SPY puts in a pullback at 2pm
- POT been strong but puts in a nice afternoon push up
- POT stays in it's range at 2pm (when SPY pulls back)
- Long the break of the range
- out -0.30

http://puddles.humanfund.ca/wp/2011/01/18/2011-01-18-trades/
 
9:42

LONG AIG 54.07
STOP 53.83
TGT 54.55

out -0.24

9:52

SHORT V 70.19
STOP 70.30
TGT 70.01

out -0.15 ( this one was dirty )
 
Quote from puddles:

9:42

LONG AIG 54.07
STOP 53.83
TGT 54.55

out -0.24

9:52

SHORT V 70.19
STOP 70.30
TGT 70.01

out -0.15 ( this one was dirty )
More...


It seems like your stops are not working, pull out ATR on a short range or use visual gauge of candle size to decide stops. You are still using stops as a exit and not HARD STOP LOSSes.
looking at your trade on 'V" it seems like
A. you are still delaying entries
B. you are not using MA's to Guide your position
C. Your stops are working against you.

In this paticular case, Financils were down, V started BLEEDING as soon as it opened. This should give you conviction to enter. and the MA's all pulled down should help you stay in the trade.

Since you are in SIM,
try the following,

1. Enter on visible weakness and Strenght - AT Once do not freeze when price starts to move rapidly in one direction. (since you waited till 9.52 to enter even though the price was on the move ever since. It seems that you feel more comfortable in slow moving price action...its ok...just pick heavvier slow moving stocks)
2. Enter stops after few seconds you are in the position, try to wait for price to start closing ABOVE the closest fast moving average.

Remember conviction for a scalper is the strength in momentum. So if price was a TRAIN, once it starts to move YOU BELIEVE TRULEY that it will continue in that direction and it WILL SLOW DOWN in that direction before it will change its direction. I know that we all know this but it is hard to execute because of the fluctuation in the price within a candle.
i am not sure if i am clear. I feel that you problem is not in identifieng the trend, its more in execution. which is OK at this stage.
Do not get disheartned by looser trades. Each looser gives you an insight worth thousands.
:cool:
 
14:20

SHORT MOS 77.43
STOP 77.68
TGT 77.00

fat fingered the stop move, out +0.3, should be easy to tgt at this point.. counting as a winner if it gets there, if not b/e
 
Quote from puddles:

14:20

SHORT MOS 77.43
STOP 77.68
TGT 77.00

fat fingered the stop move, out +0.3, should be easy to tgt at this point.. counting as a winner if it gets there, if not b/e
More...


You are not letting your winners run...
 
Quote from jokepie:

You are not letting your winners run...
More...

Jp this is a system, if he starts messing with targets and stops, we all know what's going to happen. OFC there's always room for improvement, but you can't expect him to drastically change his plan like that. 9-10 even a 15 losing trades streak given a high number of trade samples is perfectly normal with a 40-50% winning rate sys.

You seem to think Puddles just started trading this way, that tells me you haven't read a single post of the old thread..am I wrong? :)

Nothing wrong with that but if that's the case you don't have all the info to comment properly.
 
Quote from mark1:

Jp this is a system, if he starts messing with targets and stops, we all know what's going to happen. OFC there's always room for improvement, but you can't expect him to drastically change his plan like that. 9-10 even a 15 losing trades streak given a high number of trade samples is perfectly normal with a 40-50% winning rate sys.

You seem to think Puddles just started trading this way, that tells me you haven't read a single post of the old thread..am I wrong? :)

Nothing wrong with that but if that's the case you don't have all the info to comment properly.
More...

I understand what you are saying and I am not criticizing the SYSTEM itself. Personally, days like today where you see BROAD profit taking, stocks showing bigger and steady moves are the days when one can make most returns for the week/ Months.
I believe in trading small with small targets on range bound days and bigger size and bigger targets on most trending days(which are rare occurance).
I also, see a SYSTEM as RISK management tool rather than an ENTRY EXIT mechnism. and therefore for a scalper range bound days are riskier than trending days.
Looking at his execution, I match the price action to the time of entry on the charts and saw that his trend analysis is mostly accurate, however either his entries are late or STOPS kick him out too soon(mostly due to late entries).
In my view, money management is Key, however limiting every trade with a target just limits the potential to be a TRADER. Taking a position (i.e. the Hypothesis) and stying with it UNTIL is proven wrong is the ONLY rule of Trading. Everything else are Support systems like crutches.
I mean no disrespect to you or your comment. I do not want to loose his balance at all. I know we all have walked on this wire.
And yes, you are right i did not read the last thread. I still can get a feel where he is in his endeavor.
 
Quote from mark1:

Jp this is a system, if he starts messing with targets and stops, we all know what's going to happen. OFC there's always room for improvement, but you can't expect him to drastically change his plan like that. 9-10 even a 15 losing trades streak given a high number of trade samples is perfectly normal with a 40-50% winning rate sys.

You seem to think Puddles just started trading this way, that tells me you haven't read a single post of the old thread..am I wrong? :)

Nothing wrong with that but if that's the case you don't have all the info to comment properly.
More...

i was 99% sure posting all my losers (not even in real time so i could have obviously left them out) on a streak like that would get some comments.

i've had jp on ignore for a while so please don't quote him going forward..

thanks for your support mark..

summary later tonight..
 
<img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20110119/spy.png">

<img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20110119/aig.png">

<img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20110119/v.png">

<img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20110119/mos.png">

9:42

LONG AIG 54.07
STOP 53.83
TGT 54.55

- Market super weak
- AIG puts on a big move up, look for cont after a tight pullback
- out -0.24

9:52

SHORT V 70.19
STOP 70.30
TGT 70.01

- V on daily short watch
- Short under the tight lower high
- whipped out then to tgt
- out -0.15

14:20

SHORT MOS 77.43
STOP 77.68
TGT 77.00

- MOS and sector weak on news
- Virtually no pullbacks all day (SPY had a few minor ones)
- Short under the bar
- out +0.3

broke my 9 trade losing streak tying my record of last year..

http://puddles.humanfund.ca/wp/2011/01/19/2011-01-19-trades/
 
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