Friday | May 10, 2024
So, what have we learned from the Numerical Price Prediction forecast models?
FOREX
After probably at least a couple of years of debate, I've come to settle on neither the 20- nor the 30-minute measures as the backbone of day trading foreign currency pairs, but have instead reached the conclusion that the "locus of control" resides with the 43-minute baseline.
The direction in which to trade is determined by the positional relationship of the 13-minute baseline to this measure. If the 13-minute MA is above the 43-minute MA, then the "actionable" trend is bullish. If the 13-minute MA is below the 43-minute MA, then it makes sense to sell; with the 15-minute price range envelope at 0.03% and 0.05% deviation contouring the typical fluctuations of rates above and below the 13-minute baseline, and accordingly, suggesting when and where to enter positions as well as reasonable/rational take-profit targets and stop-loss levels.
The two-minute price range envelope at 0.01% (and 0.02%) deviation tracks the ebb and flow of price within (and beyond) the 15-minute envelope, except it is extremely unstable, and for this reason, the six-minute price flow channel at 0.01% deviation is
also plotted on the chart to provide a much clearer picture as to when rates are rising and when they are falling between the 15-minute measure's upper and lower bands.
Possible U-turns in the Intraday trend are signaled by reversals in the 13-minute baseline, so of course, this situation
also suggests when and where to enter (even
more profitable) positions.
GOLD
The "money measure" when it comes to gold is the ten-minute price range envelope at 0.06% deviation, with this
same measure
also constituting gold's "locus of control." Fluctuations inside (and beyond) this measure are tracked by the 4¼-minute price range envelope at 0.04% deviation. Given the relative abundance of instability in this (the ten-minute) measure, the 21-minute baseline is
also plotted on the chart to help clarify the true direction of the "actionable" trend.
Additional assistance is provided by the 51-minute baseline, since gold's "ultimate" destination from an intraday perspective is north if price action is taking place primarily above this measure, and south if the faster measures are mainly painting below it. The domain within which gold's typical breadth of intraday values tend to confine themselves is defined by the 51-minute price range envelope at 0.30% deviation; though price will occasionally veer to 0.50% deviation, or even 0.90% in the most extreme cases.
When there is not much of a day-to-day trend, gold's
intraday trend normally reverses direction in the vicinity of the upper or lower band of the three-hour price range envelope at 0.40% deviation. But should it fail to do so, don't be surprised to see the slope of the three-hour baseline (as represented by the associated lower-panel histogram) breach the 0.696 or -0.696 level, in which case, it is probably time to adopt more of a swing trading mindset.
SILVER
For the "locus of control" when it comes to silver, I'm looking at the 51-minute baseline, with the "money measure" consisting of the 8½-minute price range envelope at 0.10% and 0.30% deviation.
Like gold, silver too makes use of a 21-minute and a 51-minute baseline, but
also includes a 21-minute price flow channel at 0.20% deviation. So long as the faster measure remains below the slower MA, one's primary interest should be in entering short positions. Of course, if the faster MA is
above the slower one, the opposite is true; and in either case, the contrarian band of the 21-minute channel at 0.20% deviation constitutes a reasonable/rational stop-loss level.
CRUDE OIL
It would appear that the 21-minute baseline is oil's "money measure." Yet, if we drill down to lower-time-frame charts, we find that this role actually belongs to the 13-minute price flow channel at 0.10% deviation (to be more precise). That said, locus of control goes to the 51-minute price range envelope at 0.20% deviation, with the position of its corresponding moving average above or below the two-hour baseline helping to make clear if the intraday bias/sentiment is bullish or bearish.
Moreover, crude oil tends to be bullish if and when price action is taking place above the upper band of the eight-hour price range envelope at 0.30% deviation; or bearish if taking place below the lower band of the same.
NATURAL GAS
As with oil, it would appear that the 21-minute baseline is this commodity's reigning "money measure," though once again, things change if we drill down to the microscopic level, where gas’ spasmodic price action makes things pretty unclear. On a one-minute chart, the best bet is to confer with the
mixed or
consensus opinion of the ten- AND 30-minute baselines combined, along with the slope of the 51-minute price range envelope at 1% deviation.
Accordingly, the preeminent price flow of natural gas is conveyed by the slope of the 51-minute baseline (like with crude oil); and as with the other fuel, additional clarity is provided in the form of the position of this measure above or below the two-hour baseline.
Furthermore, natural gas’ day-to-day sentiment is represented by the slope of the seven-hour measure(s), which can be of great assistance in pinpointing the low or high of the day (as appropriate) depending on the direction in which the daily trend is headed.
