Proprietary Trading Firms - A Different Business Model
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In an unsuccessful attempt to modify their instructions so as to maximize the number of times my Forex alerts recommend justifiable trades and minimize the number of times they suggest something "stupid," I came across a handful of situations that should nonetheless be of use when trading manually.
One is to look to enter positions as price is being rejected at the 95-minute temporal support and/or resistance level(s). Along those same lines is the "fact" that when the 43-minute price flow is trending, rates tend to come out of corresponding pullbacks at the contrarian band of the 43-minute envelope at 0.02% deviation—and the same applies to the 0.03% deviation level of the13-minute price range envelope. Fourth (and final) is that I'll probably increase my success rate by refraining from entering positions following reversals in the 13-minute baseline to those instances wherein price has deviated more than 0.06% from the 43-minute baseline.
So then, based on all the conclusions I formed from last Thursday through last night, I was able to put on a trade (via gold) and go to bed, only to wake up to a positive outcome—something I had given up on ever being able to do profitably by 2018, with Numerical Price Prediction ultimately proving my skepticism to be unfounded, thanks be to God.
Moreover, crude oil reversed direction, as I thought that it might, though I was unable to profit from the corresponding forecast model due to my having yet to observe a confirmation signal before resigning for the night.
I initially shorted gold, but then abandoned the position for a -$2.87 loss when it appeared the trade might be turning against me. However, after I saw confirmation that the asset was probably genuinely bearish, I reentered a short position...this time with three times the Volume, and pocketed $15.21 before commission(s), making up for my loss and then some.
I also shorted silver at the same time for $9.60. Unfortunately, I still had a natural gas trade on from last week that I didn't even know I'd made, probably from accidently hitting a button when I was simply considering entering a position (seeing as how it had no stop loss and no take-profit target). I had to eat a whopping -$22.20 loss to exit that clunker!
On the bright side, I saw no signs that gold was done, so I entered a third short position, and gathered the $32.34 gain when I woke up this morning. That would have meant about forty bucks in returns from relatively small 0.03 Volume trades just from last night, IF it weren't for my blunderous finger last week. And had I chosen Sunday to be one of the days I traded straight through the night, I'd probably have another ten bucks or so from crude oil for a total of about fifty.
(I didn't short silver a second time because it didn't look as committed to maintaining a southbound trajectory as did gold, and indeed, this turned out to be true.)
All this leads me to believe I should be good to go with the Forex, gold, silver, crude oil and natural gas charts I'm currently using as is..
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Returning to the USA indices in light of last week's success with foreign currency pairs and commodities, my initial impression is that what you want to do here is go with the 30-minute trajectory as confirmed or validated by the 90-minute baseline, entering positions as price is coming out of pullbacks in the ten-minute price flow—especially if originating on the contrarian side of the 30-minute (and possibly even the 90-minute) measure(s).
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So then, the major US indices have something in common with gold in that BOTH use ten-minute envelopes to represent the fastest actionable short-range price flow—the indexes at 0.02% deviation, and gold at 0.06%—except that indices seek to enter positions when this measure is headed in the same direction as the slope of a 30-minute baseline, whereas gold looks to do so when it matches the trajectory of a 21-minute baseline.
And yet, the indices have perhaps even more in common with natural gas in the sense that BOTH enter positions in the direction matching the slope of a ten-minute measure when it is in alignment with the trajectory of a 30-minute baseline. However, natural gas uses a ten-minute baseline as opposed to the ten-minute envelope used by the indexes. Also, the ultimate destination of each index is suggested by a 90-minute baseline, whereas the ultimate direction of natural gas suggested by a 51-minute baseline (and its corresponding price range envelope at 1% deviation).
By the way, like natural gas, gold also uses a 51-moving average, but does so to reflect its intermediate trend, with its ultimate destination projected by a three-hour price range envelope at 0.30% deviation rather than the 51-minute measure. And silver uses a 51-minute moving average to reflect its intermediate trend as well, except with sliver, any longer-term measures evidence far too much lag to be of any practical use.
On the other hand, the foreign currency pairs have more of a simpatico relationship with crude oil, since they BOTH assign preeminent importance to 13-minute measures—the Forex pairs to the baseline, and crude oil to the price range envelope at 0.10% deviation.
However, the currency pairs use the six-minute price flow channel at 0.01% deviation to track the fluctuations of price above and below this measure, typically bounded by the 15-minute price range envelope at 0.03% deviation; whereas crude oil uses the six-minute price range envelope at 0.07% deviation to track the fluctuations of price within the slower/wider 13-minute envelope. Also, Forex pairs confirm the 13-minute price flow using the 42-minute baseline; whereas crude oil does so with a 20-minute baseline—very similar to how gold's ten-minute envelope does this with a 21-minute baseline. (These two measures are surely interchangeable.)
Finally, like gold and natural gas, crude oil too points to the slope of a 21-minute baseline as the measure its fastest actionable price flow needs to match in order to enter a position; except that it uses a 13-minute price range envelope at 0.10% deviation to represent the flow, rather than gold's ten-minute envelope at 0.06% deviation, or natural gas' ten-minute baseline.
It could be said that: "The ultimate destination of each index is suggested by a 90-minute baseline; whereas the ultimate direction of natural gas is suggested by a 51-minute baseline and its corresponding price range envelope at 1% deviation, and confirmed by a two-hour moving average."
TUESDAY | MAY 14, 2024
Picture in your mind a silver dollar eating a troy ounce silver candlestick chart as a visual aide to preserve in the forefront of your recollection the postulate (or axiom) that the fastest actionable price flow when it comes to this metal is the Indian red "ate-and-a-half" minute price range envelope at 0.10% deviation—which is navigated internally by the 4¼-minute price range envelope at 0.04% deviation. Of course, from there you move up to the beige (or khaki) 21-minute baseline and its corresponding "blue shadow" channel at 0.20% deviation; and then on to the olive-colored 51-minute baseline.
What you need to consider from here are the typical fluctuations...
If silver is not trending particularly well, look to enter positions at the upper or lower band of the green 51-minute price range envelope at 0.40% deviation and/or the bold gray 21-minute price range envelope at 0.45% deviation.
If the metal IS exhibiting at least a bit of a trend (as conveyed by a sloping slate blue three-hour price range envelope at 0.35% and 0.70% deviation) seek to enter positions near the contrarian inner band of the three-hour measures.
If it is trending sharply, as indicated by the corresponding lower panel histogram displaying a reading greater than 1.0147 or less than -1.0147, then enter positions anytime you see 8½-minute price action coming out of pullbacks to the contrarian side of the "blue shadow" channel—or deeper.
CORRECTION: The three-hour measure CAN be of use if used to inform the decision-making process with respect to entry levels when silver is in a slight trend AND when silver is trending sharply, as described below.
Picture in your mind a silver dollar eating a troy ounce silver candlestick chart as a visual aide to preserve in the forefront of your recollection the postulate (or axiom) that the fastest actionable price flow when it comes to this metal is the Indian red "ate-and-a-half" minute price range envelope at 0.10% deviation—which is navigated internally by the 4¼-minute price range envelope at 0.04% deviation. Of course, from there you move up to the beige (or khaki) 21-minute baseline and its corresponding "blue shadow" channel at 0.20% deviation; and then on to the olive-colored 51-minute baseline.
What you need to consider from here are the typical fluctuations...
If silver is not trending particularly well, look to enter positions at the upper or lower band of the green 51-minute price range envelope at 0.40% deviation and/or the bold gray 21-minute price range envelope at 0.45% deviation.
If the metal IS exhibiting at least a bit of a trend (as conveyed by a sloping slate blue three-hour price range envelope at 0.35% and 0.70% deviation) seek to enter positions near the contrarian inner band of the three-hour measures.
If it is trending sharply, as indicated by the corresponding lower panel histogram displaying a reading greater than 1.0147 or less than -1.0147, then enter positions anytime you see 8½-minute price action coming out of pullbacks to the contrarian side of the "blue shadow" channel—or deeper.