Probability and Trading

[spooz]

In trading communities, we often hear things like, " by flip of a coin, you have a chance of winning 50%" etc.

Is trading really similar to coin flip?

It is not an even comparison. For a trader to get to close to a coin flip kind of trade, one has to fix a time of the day and shoot the entry order in just one direction every day either long, or, short. Set achievable numbers within a given time line for both Target as well as Stop Loss, and then, this approach becomes more parallel to your coin toss.

If one sets the target number slightly higher than SL number, one has a loaded coin on hand.

Still one can lose on transaction charges and slippages.

The thing is that markets have several simultaneous trends. One cannot trade successfully without being aware of the full picture. In your example a trader would have to know where this top occurred in relation to the rest of the chart. Trading based on reliable somewhat repetitive behavior will put you well over the 50% line. On a single trade I know I am more likely to win than lose, but I can't put a number on it. In your example we know a top has been made but we don't know if it's the top. Therefore I would say the chance of a wining trade is much less than 50%. Also, don't put your stop on the high. There were sellers there and they could still be there. Last point your target is arbitrary. You need a target that has a logic to it.
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[easymon1]

What could be the odds?

If your trade has a set of rules to provide specific measurable data points, then you can calculate some backtested odds by looking at a population of past occurances of that setup and trigger. From that you can estimate the probability that the next x number of trades will provide a similar result in toto. ymmv. The waiting for your setup is the hardest part, lol.

Artistic and intuitive trading is an entirely different kettle of fish imho and when you find someone who does it well and is willing to talk... listen.

What would You say belongs in a solid trading plan?
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...solid-trading-plan.340340/page-4#post-5031706

 

[Frederick Foresight]

Is trading really similar to coin flip?

If it is, be sure to choose your coin carefully.

 

[VEGASDESERT]

well thats what every trader is trying to defeat, the 50/50 nature of random trades.

buy low, sell high, thats the idea.

get your transaction costs as close to zero as possible otherwise you're
fighting an uphill battle.

 

[murray t turtle]

As a former statistician for Ford, and a trader who did 41mil in order flow last year alone, I say:

- it's a coin flip if you suck and have no edge

- it's multivariate analysis, factoring in strength of pattern, market internals/VIX, time of day etc.

- edge = price action/tape reading skills plus trade mgmt strategies

- profitable trading is more about math than chart patterns

%%
LOL=true.
WHY flip a coin anyway if you can toss it+ big difference.
And also, a silver coin sounds different from average coins.
WE may '' pray the cars see us'' + pray protection; but stop\ look + listen also . Handle 123/i aim @ avoiding rush hours traffic snarls when possible.
And those yellow walk signs, yellow push buttons near them LOL can make a big difference.,

 

[trader221]

spread and commissions mean it can't be a 50/50 game

 

[SunTrader]

well thats what every trader is trying to defeat, the 50/50 nature of random trades.

buy low, sell high, thats the idea.

get your transaction costs as close to zero as possible otherwise you're
fighting an uphill battle.

That only has relevance if you are micro-scalping for a tick or two.

 

[smallfil]

While, I commented on the percentages, the original poster missed the forrest for the trees. What matters more to a trader's success in the stockmarket is his trading edge. If you do not have a trading edge then, you have negative expectation and guaranteed to lose your monies. You need positive expectation which has nothing to do with the win rate of all your trades. If you have a trading system with a 90% win rate, you are probably, salivating and thinking you will make a lot of monies. Not even close. What if each time you win, you gain a profit of $100 or $100 x 9= $900 but, each time you lose 1/10 times, you lose $1500. A net loss of $600. That is a negative expectation trading system. Contrast that with a trading system with a win rate of only 30%, so loses 70% of the time. However, each time it loses, it loses only $100 x 7 = $700. When it wins 3 times x $500 =$1500. So, this trading system has a positive expectation and gains $800. Only the trading edge (positive expectation) matters, win rate by itself, does not matter at all.

 

[SimpleMeLike]

In trading communities, we often hear things like, " by flip of a coin, you have a chance of winning 50%" etc.

Is trading really similar to coin flip?

It is not an even comparison. For a trader to get to close to a coin flip kind of trade, one has to fix a time of the day and shoot the entry order in just one direction every day either long, or, short. Set achievable numbers within a given time line for both Target as well as Stop Loss, and then, this approach becomes more parallel to your coin toss.

If one sets the target number slightly higher than SL number, one has a loaded coin on hand.

Still one can lose on transaction charges and slippages.

Hello sridhga,

Just take the trade and do your best.

 

[murray t turtle]

While, I commented on the percentages, the original poster missed the forest for the trees. What matters more to a trader's success in the stockmarket is his trading edge. If you do not have a trading edge then, you have negative expectation and guaranteed to lose your monies. You need positive expectation which has nothing to do with the win rate of all your trades. If you have a trading system with a 90% win rate, you are probably, salivating and thinking you will make a lot of monies. Not even close. What if each time you win, you gain a profit of $100 or $100 x 9= $900 but, each time you lose 1/10 times, you lose $1500. A net loss of $600. That is a negative expectation trading system. Contrast that with a trading system with a win rate of only 30%, so loses 70% of the time. However, each time it loses, it loses only $100 x 7 = $700. When it wins 3 times x $500 =$1500. So, this trading system has a positive expectation and gains $800. Only the trading edge (positive expectation) matters, win rate by itself, does not matter at all.

%%
Trading+ investing is not nearly as simple as a coin flip, or even much higher probability coin toss.
IT'S much more like a forest or logging business .
Good day for day trades, even though most logging jobs are more than any one day/LOL