"Price TA" Traders Dream Market Come True...

[fordewind]

It was all a dream!

 

[Scataphagos]

This option ain’t so great. You never know when the buyers will stop buying or the sellers will stop selling. If you are waiting for the bounce, you are probably getting in too late.

Not true. At some point all declines will bounce. Some will just blast away higher, and if you don't "chase the bounce", you get left in the dust.

All you know is the "setup". You don't ever know for far it will carry or how long it will last. You have to evaluate that on the fly.

 

[777]

You were saying that it is better to Buy on Valleys and Sell on Hills Bud than to Hold long term positions - and that interday bargaining was better at rising the capital a bit more readily - I simply is saying that it isn`t - Buy & Hold over Long Term can prove to be more rewarding.

The commonly quoted figures on market return are normally around 9 percent and this was the market return for the market durring the existence of Berkshire Hathaway.

Certainly most people involved in the market are far better off buying and holding.

My advice to most very young people would be similar to Warren Buffett's: periodically buy Berkshire Hathaway and plan on holding for 30-plus years. Buffett actually advises doing this with low fee index funds and is leaving 90 percent of his wife's inheritance in this fashion.

The reasons I say this are many:

Historically we know most daytraders lose and most longer term traders have done worse than the market. If you believe our country has and figures to keep a reasonable business culture and business ownership will continue to be a good idea. Etc...

Another factor is this: Large wealth that wishes to be involved in the market can not trade it all

Warnings And Exceptions:

Renaissance Technologies, please ignore my advice!

George Soros and Stanley Druckenmiller, please ignore my advice!

* Most people will never have the ability and inclination to be market crushing winning traders.

** A much larger percentage of people can be taught to click the Max Market buttons on their 401K and then close their eyes. Or... simply follow my posted advice which for most is far superior than trading.

 

[peter matthew matty]

Its not a matter of ability, its just maths. for the last 9 years we've had a bull market in the S&P etc. Buy-and-hold is a life-time strategy so 9-year periods are not a suitable accounting period to measure the strategy's success. The last 9 year period is certainly not typical behaviour of the major indices over the average 9 years.

You will know that the previous 9 year period was a terrible loser for buy-and-hold investors but presented a great opportunity for traders who simply followed the trends. How would an investor buying the market 18 years ago have made money by 2009? Although they have made money now off the 2009-2018 bull market, that price behaviour was unpredictable in 2009.

The last 9 year period is certainly not typical behaviour of the major indices over the average 9 years. - Well Yes it was beacuse Dow Jones 30 & FTSE 100 both these Instruments - Have covered the same period as of A Swing High Phase over the same period of time. You will only be able to quantify the dips at Random Levels because Metric Length Calculation to Swing Lows proved - As inferior to the S&P 500 as well charting the Derivative through Charting Pattern Formation failed miserably as well. So at A Guess and The only chance in becoming successful at these type of entries - You are saying that you were cap-able of success by buying on the dips. Is that the point you are making - And if you were ? - Holds NO Valid Point - As to any sense what so ever - It is far better to hold on to the position throw the Long Term Than just for keep Trying sake participate in just trying to be A Clever Sod. - Now Dose That Answer the Point You Have Made Here. ?

 

[tomorton]

The last 9 year period is certainly not typical behaviour of the major indices over the average 9 years. - Well Yes it was beacuse Dow Jones 30 & FTSE 100 both these Instruments - Have covered the same period as of A Swing High Phase over the same period of time. You will only be able to quantify the dips at Random Levels because Metric Length Calculation to Swing Lows proved - As inferior to the S&P 500 as well charting the Derivative through Charting Pattern Formation failed miserably as well. So at A Guess and The only chance in becoming successful at these type of entries - You are saying that you were cap-able of success by buying on the dips. Is that the point you are making - And if you were ? - Holds NO Valid Point - As to any sense what so ever - It is far better to hold on to the position throw the Long Term Than just for keep Trying sake participate in just trying to be A Clever Sod. - Now Dose That Answer the Point You Have Made Here. ?

You use terms we probably don't have an agreed definition for and I'm not sure I understand you.

However, what I am saying is if you buy something at 10,000 and it goes up or down 1000 and you hold it until it goes back to 10,000, you've made zero. If you buy at 10k and it drops to 9k, and you hold it until 8k, you're down 2k.

But if as a trader you followed the trends, going long in the uptrends and short in the downtrends, you'd have made money under all these scenarios.

 

[peter matthew matty]

You use terms we probably don't have an agreed definition for and I'm not sure I understand you.

However, what I am saying is if you buy something at 10,000 and it goes up or down 1000 and you hold it until it goes back to 10,000, you've made zero. If you buy at 10k and it drops to 9k, and you hold it until 8k, you're down 2k.

But if as a trader you followed the trends, going long in the uptrends and short in the downtrends, you'd have made money under all these scenarios.

Ok Point taken.

 

[peter matthew matty]

I think of it is totally different way, I have seen this price action several times before and has NOTHING to do with TA or chart reading or reading tea leaves. In either way of chart reading or TA, price shown it was time to come down. What most people never understand about TA, it generally comes off price, it in a way is a delay of what is happening. Can we agree that it takes longer to learn chart reading, took me several years to get decent, whereas new people see indicators and think it be easier to use, but actually they are harder to use correctly cause they don't know how to read charting. I been using TA since the 80s, I use them cause it is easier for me to get overall impression of what is going on. And much easier to program but only if you understand charting.

When you have any market that been going up faster than normal then goes up very fast, am looking to short, like all the other times of 40 years. People don't study history is major problem and they always think they are smarter than next guy and something won't happen to them like using VIX, they in same line filing for bankruptcy as others who also had same thoughts, Then forever put down the markets cause they went beyond being greedy, they were pigs to slaughter.

Every trade is a prediction as no one every knows what the market will do. We trade based on knowledge and knowledge are rules, sometimes in different ways.

I love this game.

Well Pointed out.

 

[SimpleMeLike]

I once saw a quote where PTJ stated... "conventional wisdom is don't try to pick tops and bottoms.... I've made 10 times more money trying to pick them than I ever made trying to not pick them".

Yes, I been trying to see how to trades the's reversal, they are very profitable

 

[322170]

I don't think it's possible to compare our present markets to historic market data via long term returns, simply because we are in a situation that we've never been in before. Never in our nations history have we had this much debt. Look at the US personal savings rate, checkout Medicare, and SS , it's terribly underfunded.
Does T/A work? It does sometimes and sometimes it doesn't - what matters is when you get a set up you take your shot. Whatever that set up means to you.... Remember, It's your money so it should be your rules.... Just make sure your protected because nobody can tell you what's going to happen next.
Lastly, reading some of the more recent posts I have to ask what's becoming of ET why are so many people angry on this site?

 

[Handle123]

I don't think it's possible to compare our present markets to historic market data via long term returns, simply because we are in a situation that we've never been in before. Never in our nations history have we had this much debt. Look at the US personal savings rate, checkout Medicare, and SS , it's terribly underfunded.
Does T/A work? It does sometimes and sometimes it doesn't - what matters is when you get a set up you take your shot. Whatever that set up means to you.... Remember, It's your money so it should be your rules.... Just make sure your protected because nobody can tell you what's going to happen next.
Lastly, reading some of the more recent posts I have to ask what's becoming of ET why are so many people angry on this site?

I think we are long overdue for a world depression, and when interest rates goes up, USA will not be able to come up with enough funds as we stand right now to pay off the interest let alone any of the principle. Am sure other countries are in deep as well, maybe not as much China, but we made the China problem by having them make cheap goods and no equality of trade. There is no fair trade when one country just keeps taking it in and not enough going out, so then we have closed down so many factories. USA has become a service society. And next step is when we will no longer be driving cars or trucks-all GPS, there goes another one million jobs.