Prediction Based Trading

userque said:
There are old people.
There are fat people.
There are no old, fat people.

If you trade long enough, you'll run into a black swan event. And when you do, there's a 50/50 chance you'll be on the wrong side of it.

You may consider calculating a maximum allocation you are willing to utilize, that takes into account the possibility that you'll end up on the wrong side of a black swan event.

Sept. 11, 2001 was such an (market-wide) event, for example.
Catastrophic news events can cause black swan events for particular, individual instruments.

Pay me when you get on your feet.
More...

One of the best Advice i ever read in here.
 
Nice chunky gap up, yay! What made this a good trade was that there were multiple long signals on correlated assets, eg both hit support at the same time. Normally, one would just get support hit, but this one is analogous to two of the smart kids getting the same answer in different ways.
 
screen-shot-2021-04-08-at-9-36-18-pm-png.256506

Caught this one too but cut it too fast and hadn't put it all in, only up a few grand on it. Messed up the entry. There are so many like it
 

Attachments

  • Screen Shot 2021-04-08 at 9.36.18 PM.png
    Screen Shot 2021-04-08 at 9.36.18 PM.png
    302.3 KB · Views: 155
Meant to short ROKU at 389. Got the alert and it just hung around for the day so I assumed nothing would happen, but it did...right at the end of the day. It should gap down, but if it opens above, it should hit that same number tomorrow for a hypothetical breakeven or small profit, depends. Might short it tomorrow depending on the open.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top