There are old people.
There are fat people.
There are no old, fat people.
If you trade long enough, you'll run into a black swan event. And when you do, there's a 50/50 chance you'll be on the wrong side of it.
You may consider calculating a maximum allocation you are willing to utilize, that takes into account the possibility that you'll end up on the wrong side of a black swan event.
Sept. 11, 2001 was such an (market-wide) event, for example.
Catastrophic news events can cause black swan events for particular, individual instruments.
Pay me when you get on your feet.