http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability
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Here is a quote from Wikipedia...While it isn't the last word its good enough for this crowd;
"To give a mathematical meaning to probability, consider flipping a "fair" coin. Intuitively, the probability that heads will come up on any given coin toss is "obviously" 50%; but this statement alone lacks mathematical rigor. Certainly, while we might expect that flipping such a coin 10 times will yield 5 heads and 5 tails, there is no guarantee that this will occur; it is possible, for example, to flip 10 heads in a row. What then does the number "50%" mean in this context?
One approach is to use the law of large numbers. In this case, we assume that we can perform any number of coin flips, with each coin flip being independentâthat is to say, the outcome of each coin flip is unaffected by previous coin flips. If we perform N trials (coin flips), and let NH be the number of times the coin lands heads, then we can, for any N, consider the ratio .
As N gets larger and larger, we expect that in our example the ratio will get closer and closer to 1/2. This allows us to "define" the probability of flipping heads as the limit, as N approaches infinity, of this sequence of ratios:
In actual practice, of course, we cannot flip a coin an infinite number of times; so in general, this formula most accurately applies to situations in which we have already assigned an a priori probability to a particular outcome (in this case, our assumption that the coin was a "fair" coin). The law of large numbers then says that, given Pr(H), and any arbitrarily small number å, there exists some number n such that for all N > n,
In other words, by saying that "the probability of heads is 1/2", we mean that, if we flip our coin often enough, eventually the number of heads over the number of total flips will become arbitrarily close to 1/2; and will then stay at least as close to 1/2 for as long as we keep performing additional coin flips."
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I said this a couple of times ("in the short term ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN"), but you were busy with your head up your ass..
I realize that this won't make a difference to YOU, but for the rest of us, it certainly does finish the "debate"...Maybe you should try holding your breath and jumping up and down..
