predicting IV levels

B

Bekim

Is there a way to predict future IV levels on equity options based on what range you predict the VIX to be in the future?
It's difficult to use historical data because the last time the VIX was this high we did not have the amount of weekly options that we have now. any help would be appreciated.
 
IMHO: The best predictor for future IV is is the latest option prices (IV surface) for liquid products. Be careful when adding VIX as an influencing metric if it is NOT the proper metric for your objective. Note that VIX is merely the implementation of the algo provide in the CBOE VIX White paper, and likely is NOT a good fit for what you state. Start clean, and just look at the data more directly! For example, if you are pondering what ".SPXW200417P2875" may look like in 1 week if underlying does NOT move, then examine ".SPXW200409P2875"! for a projection assuming Vol surface maintains its current shape!

While this has no crystal ball, it is best guess with current info. Nice thing about this, is you can observe how correct it has been in the past and make your own decision on how to use it. - Extend this to project impact of underlying moves, for example, if expect underlying to move +25 point in 1 week, but same vol surface shape, look at SPXW200409P2850.
 
Last edited:
Bekim said:
Is there a way to predict future IV levels on equity options based on what range you predict the VIX to be in the future?
It's difficult to use historical data because the last time the VIX was this high we did not have the amount of weekly options that we have now. any help would be appreciated.
More...

Its the secret sauce of volatility trading.

That’s where the skill and experience come in.
 
Bekim said:
Is there a way to predict future IV levels on equity options based on what range you predict the VIX to be in the future?
It's difficult to use historical data because the last time the VIX was this high we did not have the amount of weekly options that we have now. any help would be appreciated.
More...
you want to predict movement on VIX? and predict implied vol. For what time period? Weekly?
 
Ironplates said:
I think I have an idea how they are doing it, especially since they mentioned the 80% probability. Nice find, have you used their service? If so, what worked for you, didn't work?
More...

As it was a black box I lost interest. How do you think they are doing it? Check out www.sjoptions.com as well, a related company.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top