predicting IV levels

Thanks everyone for the reply’s, I have done a pretty good job predicting IV in weekly equity options going in to earning using historical data. But now we are in a whole new volatility cycle and the instruments have changed since 2008. Just wanted some input. Thank you everyone
 
Bekim said:
Thanks everyone for the reply’s, I have done a pretty good job predicting IV in weekly equity options going in to earning using historical data. But now we are in a whole new volatility cycle and the instruments have changed since 2008. Just wanted some input. Thank you everyone
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Correlation of many stocks with the general market is now 1, so individual stocks volatility will follow market. You have to create a model that accounts for that.

How do you make money from your predictions? What is the best way to make money from predicting implied vol of an individual stock since there isn't an instrument like VIX.
 
If I could accurately forecast forward vol. and it was materially different from what exists now - you would be doing what every liquidity provider in options is trying to do.

1. Your forecast would need to be materially different and not just a simple mean reversion or high/low estimate.
2 Be self-clearing so you can get remarkable leverage at OCC.
3. You would not need a single stock name vol. product - you would defacto create one by delta/neutral trading. Much of the delta/neutral trading in SNE is a vol. trade.
4. Be in competition with the vol. model at the large marketing making firms and they would potentially be the pocket your picking or they would run you over if their model is better.
5. The difference would be materially different from what's in the marketplace.
6. Skew often exists to try to shape the order flow - a somewhat controversial idea - you'd get a better sense of why skew exists in multiply traded names.
7. You would need enough capital to survive weeks like these.
8. Start small in a less active, multiply listed name

Read the works of Tim Bollerslev when he was at Kellogg.

Again if the forecast was materially different and very good - you could make a lot of money if you could execute size.
So remember #8 above.

Stop talking about and document your results and then go and sell your firm to one of the big liquidity providers.

Go buy an Island.
 
ajacobson said:
If I could accurately forecast forward vol. and it was materially different from what exists now - you would be doing what every liquidity provider in options is trying to do.

1. Your forecast would need to be materially different and not just a simple mean reversion or high/low estimate.
2 Be self-clearing so you can get remarkable leverage at OCC.
3. You would not need a single stock name vol. product - you would defacto create one by delta/neutral trading. Much of the delta/neutral trading in SNE is a vol. trade.
4. Be in competition with the vol. model at the large marketing making firms and they would potentially be the pocket your picking or they would run you over if their model is better.
5. The difference would be materially different from what's in the marketplace.
6. Skew often exists to try to shape the order flow - a somewhat controversial idea - you'd get a better sense of why skew exists in multiply traded names.
7. You would need enough capital to survive weeks like these.
8. Start small in a less active, multiply listed name

Read the works of Tim Bollerslev when he was at Kellogg.

Again if the forecast was materially different and very good - you could make a lot of money if you could execute size.
So remember #8 above.

Stop talking about and document your results and then go and sell your firm to one of the big liquidity providers.

Go buy an Island.
More...

Thanks. Reading now
 
ajacobson said:
If I could accurately forecast forward vol. and it was materially different from what exists now - you would be doing what every liquidity provider in options is trying to do.

1. Your forecast would need to be materially different and not just a simple mean reversion or high/low estimate.
2 Be self-clearing so you can get remarkable leverage at OCC.
3. You would not need a single stock name vol. product - you would defacto create one by delta/neutral trading. Much of the delta/neutral trading in SNE is a vol. trade.
4. Be in competition with the vol. model at the large marketing making firms and they would potentially be the pocket your picking or they would run you over if their model is better.
5. The difference would be materially different from what's in the marketplace.
6. Skew often exists to try to shape the order flow - a somewhat controversial idea - you'd get a better sense of why skew exists in multiply traded names.
7. You would need enough capital to survive weeks like these.
8. Start small in a less active, multiply listed name

Read the works of Tim Bollerslev when he was at Kellogg.

Again if the forecast was materially different and very good - you could make a lot of money if you could execute size.
So remember #8 above.

Stop talking about and document your results and then go and sell your firm to one of the big liquidity providers.

Go buy an Island.
More...

I thought a firm will use the same model and then skew it based on order flow. Also maybe some adjustments based on upcoming events.
 
The CBOE/CME uses the VIX methodology to calculate a VIX like vol. for something like a dozen of the more active issues. It's not tradeable - at this time - but it lets you automate if you are using a 1 or 2 sigma rough estimate for trading. It ain't perfect, but it's free.
 
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