Predicting is ***Unavoidable***

[Tums]

Quote from makosgu:

Let's refine this example a bit. Take the daytona 500. You have a few dozen cars in the race... When the flag comes out, the cars are full throttle...

SO IN THIS EXAMPLE WE CAN DEFINE A CLEAR EXAMPLE OF PREDICTION...

The prediction is, "WHO IS GOING TO WIN THE RACE"??? If you say, #24 Gordon is going to win the race, that would be a prediction. So we can expand and say, what would not be a prediction? What would not be a prediction is to look at the leader board and see that CURRENTLY (ie. NOW) #24 is in the lead. This is all we can say about right now is that #24 is leading. Of course, you can follow the rational and say that as long as #24 CONTINUES to lead for the remainder of the race, then he will win the race. However, if the leader board CHANGES and a new leader passes #24 and becomes the new leader, then we can say that if #24 is not in the lead by the end of the race, he will not win the race. So along any point in the race, one might choose to make a prediction as to who will win the race. However, to someone who elects not to predict, the observer would simply just follow the leader board since it would be showing who is in a position that is currently winning the race... We know that in racing, the lead does not randomly change. The time of changes may be random but then again, there are precursors... The last place guy doesn't instantly become the first place guy and then go back to last place in the next instant. Usually, another racer closes in on the leader, overtakes the leader, and then attempts to distance themself from all the cars. Of course, there are many precursors. This is what it is like to be trading NOW as opposed to predictiong. Despite what most think, it is possible to trade NOW. Instead of assigning what is going to happen in the market, one can just simply observe and trade what is happening in the NOW.

Good example.

I can see the dances of gaussians amongst the shifting gears and redlining technometers; DU and FRV exchanging places while the the screaming engines frantically jockeying for position. Yes, when a car surges forward, you don't need to predict everybody will be following him -- until someone comes along to change the lead.

 

[makosgu]

Quote from daddy'sboy:

This is exactly what I meant by popular misunderstanding. For you to predict rain, you have to have had a prior experience of rain.
db

Also false! If someone asked you what will the barometer read tommorrow, you can also guess a random number despite not having any clue as to which readings correspond to rain. However, for the record it's the low ones. You could still not know what is a low reading and guess a number like 5 as opposed to a more appropriate number like 29.5...

 

[wdscott]

Quote from makosgu:

Also false! If someone asked you what will the barometer read tommorrow, you can also guess a random number despite not having any clue as to which readings correspond to rain. However, for the record it's the low ones. You could still not know what is a low reading and guess a number like 5 as opposed to a more appropriate number like 29.5...

I predict 29.92

 

[JimmyJam]

Quote from Pr0crast:

Okay Jimmy. Surely you can see that we are at least relatively on the same side of the argument here. But you have to acknowledge that what you are talking about is still just semantics. Dealing with the present price action, as we do, is making an indefinite prediction. When I get a signal for "change" for instance, I am predicting that I will get "continuation" until I get the next signal for "change."

I can argue either side here... which brings me back to my point, that this whole thread is utterly pointless and just an elaborate exercise of wordplay and egotism.

Kiwi's post about the usefulness of this "I don't predict" attitude did have some substance though. Taking on a purely "reactionary" attitude does serve to eliminate emotion from the decision-making process, and thus does have usefulness from a trader's perspective.

I said what I had to say.

Thanks for the thread and the Sat dialogue on predicting the possible future of price action vs. just trading what you see.

I found it to be very informative.

Good trading,

Jimmy Jam

 

[Tums]

Quote from firestorm:

I just know someone is going to try and bring chaos theory into this weather debate

ps: It was a lovely day on the gold coast here in Australia

When I was living in Melbourne, we get four seasons in the same day. There is no predicting what the next hour's weather going to be like.

 

[Pr0crast]

Quote from firestorm:

Perhaps one day you'll even make some money

Sad little people that need to boost their ego with pseudo intellectual babble

T280-- what about sad little people that need to boost their ego by dedicating their evenings to creating multiple aliases on an internet message board to snidely put down other people behind the facade of an internet identity?

 

[Gaucho MM1]

Quote from jack hershey:

HI GAUCHO ,
There are ads of an automobile charging along into the landscape where the road magically appears and go to and fro as the driver enjoys the experience. This is intended to sell cars by having the viewer think things. It isn't a real display of how it is for car owners.

the best part of the whole post........imo......you have managed to summarise the markets from the inception to today........."by having the viewer think things"

ps you may assume you are different, you may find proof to suggest you ARE different.........this is an area you should guard well and is a garden you'll need to weed regularly.......never believe your own advertising........

J

 

[wdscott]

98% of market participants try to predict market behavior. (regardless of how they describe their actions).

2% of market participants simply follow market behavior.

 

[kiwi_trader]

Quote from firestorm:

I just know someone is going to try and bring chaos theory into this weather debate

ps: It was a lovely day on the gold coast here in Australia

No.

It is a lovely day on the Gold Coast here in Australia.




PS. All newbies should immediately take up trading Jack's way. Please use it to trade the Hang Seng and Nikkei.

 

[JimmyJam]

Quote from firestorm:

Nice call... she's pregnant with our 2nd child

i predict if you try trading wits with this guy and you will absolutely f*cking loose 99.99% of the time!

jj