Predicting is ***Unavoidable***

[Walther]

Quote from jack hershey:

Or

Markets are symmetrical and cyclical , therefore there is no need to predict but to just do a routine in NOW to extract what is available all of the time.
Amen

Sure , why not . Problem with NOW is that when price will start trending you are getting serial NOW in the wrong direction( see Stoch and MACD behavior in trending market ).
I suspect that people without ability to forecast would like( deep down ) to know how to do it but for some reason are trying to argue against it. I don't get it. Wouldn't that be awesome if they would know when the next reversal will come ?
Nothing personal, just my opinion.
Peace.

 

[Trader666]

MAK, about your penmanship drill... you've taken this waaaaaay off topic! Here's my recap. I was originally responding to KPCURRENCY because he wrote something to the effect that he could use only the present ("NOW") to determine if the market's rising. I said that was not possible because, at greatest resolution, markets are composed of ticks. Therefore, he had to refer to one or more PAST ticks to determine the change if any. My reasoning being, one cannot take the derivative at NOW and tell by the slope at one point because ticks are discontinuous. You chimed in with the one period SMA and then the "U" stuff, to which I replied that a one period SMA is just connectiong the ticks (dots) and is still not differentiable at the data points because each point is a vertex.

Bottom line: Trading ***IS*** predicting / anticipating / forecasting / concluding / betting / speculating / wagering / expecting that the market WILL do something based on where it is now AND what it has done in the past.

Of course, in candyland this may not apply because contradictions are the norm. I'll close with a quote from the Grand Poobah of contradiction, Mr. Strunk and White himself:

Quote from jack hershey:

Everyone speaks for themselves.

For you prediction is unavoidable.

 

[kiwi_trader]

I was having this little debate with a prediction non-believer on this thread and he's disappeared. Along with all of his posts.

So which of our regular halfwit posters was he?

Quote from kiwi_trader:

Not angry at all - you're not nearly that impressive. Just curious to know what your name was before today - were you as much of a wanker under your previous alias? Are you a wanker under both aliases at once?

You smell a little like Trader28 (etc etc) but he's normally smarter than this. So which wanker are you?

I predict that we'll never know because within a few days you'll sneak off into your hole like all such aliases. Ciao

 

[Trader666]

What kind of blasphemy do you say? Jack can! Catch Up with Tomorrow’s Paper Today... Technical Analysis Used in a Manner to Anticipate the Market! (Attached)

Quote from makosgu:
I am a firm believer in that no one can tell where the market is going to go with better accuracy then stating what it is doing in the present.

 

[mg_mg]

Quote from fadentrade:

What Kiwi and other less statistically minded traders don't understand is that probability takes prediction out of the equation.

Probability is a way of prediction.

 

[daddy'sboy]

Quote from jack hershey:

Consider a person who does not enter or exit the market but is in the market all of the time.

What is this person doing?

He is monitoring in NOW (the only time available).
In NOW he collects a data set and passes the data set to analysis. Here is where the comfort, support and confidence feelings occur. All feelings occur with sensory activity only.

In analysis, he pairs the data set to a conclusion that matches the data set.

Looks like I've stumbled across the Eckhart Tolle fan club, and you, Mr Hershey, appear to be their leader. The NOW you talk about exists only for a split second and then it's the past (historical). And whilst you're looking at your data it becomes history immediately. When you place an order (I assume you enter and exit trades although not so sure now that you say you're in the market 'all the time') it's historical as soon as you hit enter. Looks to me like you're trading with old (historical) data rather than the NOW data you claim to be using. If you really used NOW data then you wouldn't need to look at any screens or have any sensory inputs since you would then be trading solely from a 'mushin' state. But of course you aren't because you're a directional trader, lol.
However, you couch your argument in pseudo psychological mumbo jumbo to create the illusion that you possess some kind of different trading approach to those who make 'predictions'.
You may well possess a fine and profitable trading system, but please give us a break and don't pretend you don't predict - it makes you look a little silly.
Cheers
db

 

[kiwi_trader]

Quote from fadentrade:

That's what you think until you understand it

Moderators, this is clearly the moron alias known yesterday as swingnfade. He's just stirring again.

Would you be kind enough to remove him and all his posts once again. Cheers

 

[taowave]

Well said DB.....

It seems to be the ongoing rage to take fairly simple concepts and add a zen buddist/taoist twist.Make no mistake about it,Mr Hershey is a marketing genius.If you notice,when he counters people he is quite funny,direct, and humorous.He makes his feelings very CLEAR...However,the moment he speaks trading,it may as well be in a different language.Why the sudden transformation???Because Jack knows full well that human beings tend to "seek the miraculous".

Quote from daddy'sboy:

Quote from jack hershey:

Consider a person who does not enter or exit the market but is in the market all of the time.

What is this person doing?

He is monitoring in NOW (the only time available).
In NOW he collects a data set and passes the data set to analysis. Here is where the comfort, support and confidence feelings occur. All feelings occur with sensory activity only.

In analysis, he pairs the data set to a conclusion that matches the data set.

Looks like I've stumbled across the Eckhart Tolle fan club, and you, Mr Hershey, appear to be their leader. The NOW you talk about exists only for a split second and then it's the past (historical). And whilst you're looking at your data it becomes history immediately. When you place an order (I assume you enter and exit trades although not so sure now that you say you're in the market 'all the time') it's historical as soon as you hit enter. Looks to me like you're trading with old (historical) data rather than the NOW data you claim to be using. If you really used NOW data then you wouldn't need to look at any screens or have any sensory inputs since you would then be trading solely from a 'mushin' state. But of course you aren't because you're a directional trader, lol.
However, you couch your argument in pseudo psychological mumbo jumbo to create the illusion that you possess some kind of different trading approach to those who make 'predictions'.
You may well possess a fine and profitable trading system, but please give us a break and don't pretend you don't predict - it makes you look a little silly.
Cheers
db

 

[Trader666]

Exactly! This is just his latest tack because it's what he currently believes will attract the most apple polishing toadies. Before it was the opposite (see my last post, Catch Up with Tomorrow’s Paper Today).
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1395980#post1395980

Quote from daddy'sboy:
you [Jack Hershey]couch your argument in pseudo psychological mumbo jumbo to create the illusion that you possess some kind of different trading approach to those who make 'predictions'... please give us a break and don't pretend you don't predict - it makes you look a little silly.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from fadentrade:

What Kiwi and other less statistically minded traders don't understand is that probability takes prediction out of the equation. This also produces the best traders, ie: those that think in terms of probabilities, for them they never have a losing trade or a winning trade, they just play the numbers and know the exact outcome over time

yes, however, you must keep in mind that for this to work--vast pools of capital are needed. in addition, what's your probability based on-- a valid, testable concept or old wives tales?

regards, surf