Potential NQ Targets

[dbphoenix]

I think people see it as maybe a way to be able to claim a winning trade without having any skin in the game.
Like, one could say ''we're trading at 9500, target of this move would be 10,000''
that would imply that one is long or certainly looking long with a higher bias.
If we then start trading down and crashing, you can claim to have not lost any money, since you never said the words ''I am long''. You were just plotting potential targets.

If however, we do carry on up to the 10,000 target, we'll see posts bragging and implying that you were in on the move and taking credit for a 'call' that was never actually made.

Actual realtime calls are the solution I think. Like this in the ESjournal or even Convex's journal.

No trades are claimed. This isn't about ego gratification; it's about plotting targets based on Auction Market Theory. When and where traders take trades -- or if they take trades at all -- is entirely up to them.

As for "real-time calls", there is no such thing on a message board. If one is interested in real-time calls for some reason, he needs to find a trading room in which he can see the trader's screen. These are understandably rare. Rather than follow somebody, the individual who wants to be a trader is better off studying whatever market it is he thinks he wants to trade, testing his hypotheses, and developing his own trading plan. What anybody else does or doesn't do is irrelevant.

 

[dbphoenix]

Those who are interested will note that we have been in a range that began early yesterday morning, between 80 to the upside and 40 to the down, the mean of which is 60. Trading a range is different than trading a trend and requires a different strategy and different tactics. Trading retracements, for example, will not likely be productive in a range, as one can see from yesterday's chart.

 

[niko]

I have been lurking, but I find it extremely curious that people often end up requiring some sort of proof of achievement from Db, like he owes something to his readers. He has already done much more than anyone else that posts in Et, SLA is a great way to understand how the market works for a newbie, without ending entangled in all the BS that is floating in the boards. If people think that they need a proof that the system work, just test it and see what comes out of it, you will probably learn to trade on the way. If not, you will at least learn to define an hypothesis and test it and create your own rules, saving yourself the need of a guru to tell you where north is.

As for this thread, if you have not read the file on AMT you will not understand what this is all about and you will be missing a lot of aha moments.

 

[dbphoenix]

Those who are interested will note that we have been in a range that began early yesterday morning, between 80 to the upside and 40 to the down, the mean of which is 60. Trading a range is different than trading a trend and requires a different strategy and different tactics. Trading retracements, for example, will not likely be productive in a range, as one can see from yesterday's chart.

I should probably reiterate that all of this is taking place around the mean of the longer-term trend channel (post #1). Therefore, one should not be surprised if movement is somewhat messy.

 

[dbphoenix]

​

 

[lotto]

Actual realtime calls are the solution I think. Like this in the ESjournal or even Convex's journal.

What is both hilarious and frustrating is that DB has never made this thread about making "calls." This thread isn't about making calls. It merely shows how price behaves relative to its long-term trend according to auction market theory, and how one might use that information to determine where price is, what it is doing, and what might be next given where price is within its trend, e.g. is it overbought? oversold? reverting to its mean? What anyone of us might do with that information is up to each of us as individuals. Some might use it to provide the context for implementing their trading their plans, other might say "er ... what" and move on, and others might at it, or get at DB, or be simply be by it. But to make this about making calls mischaracterizes the subject of these charts.

Now, having said that, as DB noted yesterday, the initial rejection of the mean indicated that price was more likely to head back to its lower limit than its upper limit. Today's trading, however, would indicate that what seemed to be rejection of the mean was more likely indecision, and with today's higher high, price would appear as though it has a run toward its upper limit in its near future. OTOH, if price fails to move higher and again finds itself below its mean, then the lower limit would again be the likely play. Anything can happen.

All imho, of course, and DB or anyone else may very well be in disagreement with me. But the point is that what I just said does not constitute a "call" in the sense that is popular here at ET. It is simply a contextual observation regarding price, its long term trend, and whether higher highs are more likely in the near term than lower lows. And the best part is, in spite of all these words I just typed, we are talking about an auction market, which means anything can happen, and it can happen as soon as tonight.

 

[lotto]

I have been lurking, but I find it extremely curious that people often end up requiring some sort of proof of achievement from Db, like he owes something to his readers. He has already done much more than anyone else that posts in Et, SLA is a great way to understand how the market works for a newbie, without ending entangled in all the BS that is floating in the boards. If people think that they need a proof that the system work, just test it and see what comes out of it, you will probably learn to trade on the way. If not, you will at least learn to define an hypothesis and test it and create your own rules, saving yourself the need of a guru to tell you where north is.

As for this thread, if you have not read the file on AMT you will not understand what this is all about and you will be missing a lot of aha moments.

I hadn't seen your post when I fired off my own. If I had, I could have just posted, "What he said."

 

[lotto]

Well, it is starting look like anything did happen, whatever it is/was

 

[dbphoenix]

Now, having said that, as DB noted yesterday, the initial rejection of the mean indicated that price was more likely to head back to its lower limit than its upper limit. Today's trading, however, would indicate that what seemed to be rejection of the mean was more likely indecision, and with today's higher high, price would appear as though it has a run toward its upper limit in its near future. OTOH, if price fails to move higher and again finds itself below its mean, then the lower limit would again be the likely play. Anything can happen.

All imho, of course, and DB or anyone else may very well be in disagreement with me.

No, I don't disagree. I found today to be very interesting. The first chart I posted above showed the limits of what buyers and sellers were willing to accept, 80 being the upper level, 40 being the lower. At the open, price rode 80 and it was clear, again, that buyers and sellers were unwilling to go past certain levels, the mean of which was 80 (how this so often works out is almost elegant). At this point, all one has to do is wait for the breakout. If one can wait (many/most can't). If one is afraid to take it, that's another matter. But if fear is in control of the decision-making process, it doesn't make the least difference what the trader does: ultimately he will fail.

25, though, was as far as buyers were willing to go. At that point, sellers had to lower their offers to order to make trades. Does this constitute a rally failure and a return to the mean? We're almost there now. Maybe we'll head all the way back to the lower limit.

Stay tuned.

 

[dbphoenix]

Not much has changed since last night. But I should point out that we are at that supply line reaching down from the September high, about 4000. Remember that this line is not "resistance"; it is merely a gauge of demand/supply strength. As this gets closer to the mean (now around 70), it all gets even messier.