Post your SPX 2020 predictions

volente_00 said:
Feel free to post your prediction ...
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S&P 500 closed the year 2019 at 3230,78 with a net gain of 28,88 %.

Since 1950, the S&P 500 have had a net gain of 25 % or more 13 times excluding 2019. The last time in recent years was 2013 with a gain of 29,60 %.

Remarkably, the average yearly gain following such a year is + 11,25 % with only 2/13 years closing negatively.

Let’s narrow it down further and look at years where…

1) The year gain was equal or greater than 25 %

2) S&P opened at the bottom of the range and closed at the top

3) S&P made and closed at all time highs

This have happened 10 times since 1950 with 2019 being the 11th time.

For the following years we had an average yearly gain of 12,79 % with 9/10 years closing positively and a remarkable 10/10 years making all time highs.

The minimum upside gain was 4,63 %. The mean upside gain was 16,49 %. The largest was 28,99 %.

2020 Prediction/Expectation:

Extrapolating from those numbers then we could see a high reading by 2020 of

a) Minimum 3380

b) A mean expectation of 3760

c) A maximum of 4165

For the Close - we should be seeing 3550 if we conservatively assume a net gain of 10 %.

One might feel that this market is due for a sell-off, but the numbers do suggest continued strength moving forward from here. Also:

Since 1952, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has climbed 10.1% on average during election years when a sitting president has run for reelection, according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, which is widely used among investors to track historical stock market patterns.
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greeneveryday said:
Holy f.... That's a wild bullish projection there.
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it is based on basic chart reading...…..I have the advantage of not trading the US markets at all.
just seeing the monthly chart of the markets.

the way it has moved consistently up from 2008 is one important point.

also in the last 144 months the markets have closed below the previous month only 8 times.

this is very consistent up trend.

the uptrend has to get inconsistent and then it will still continue up, after that it has to roll over. all this takes time so I expect this bull to continue for at least the next 5 years

the only thing wild about the projection is the time period of one year.

to be realistic this target will definitely be reached in 30-40 months.

but expecting a blow off end to this bull move due to the consensus that the markets have gone up too much and too fast.

also the Killing of a foreign by Trump and the virus are both bearish portents that usually cause a spike up because of obvious bearishness.

the markets love to climb a wall of worry.

this may be because of the inherent two side nature of markets.

EDIT
also on monthly charts since 2008 the market has closed below it's 20 ema 4 times.....in 144 months. need i add anything more.

do not be in denial: it is better to lose your opinion than your money
 
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Laissez Faire said:
S&P 500 closed the year 2019 at 3230,78 with a net gain of 28,88 %.

Since 1950, the S&P 500 have had a net gain of 25 % or more 13 times excluding 2019. The last time in recent years was 2013 with a gain of 29,60 %.

Remarkably, the average yearly gain following such a year is + 11,25 % with only 2/13 years closing negatively.

Let’s narrow it down further and look at years where…

1) The year gain was equal or greater than 25 %

2) S&P opened at the bottom of the range and closed at the top

3) S&P made and closed at all time highs

This have happened 10 times since 1950 with 2019 being the 11th time.

For the following years we had an average yearly gain of 12,79 % with 9/10 years closing positively and a remarkable 10/10 years making all time highs.

The minimum upside gain was 4,63 %. The mean upside gain was 16,49 %. The largest was 28,99 %.

2020 Prediction/Expectation:

Extrapolating from those numbers then we could see a high reading by 2020 of

a) Minimum 3380

b) A mean expectation of 3760

c) A maximum of 4165

For the Close - we should be seeing 3550 if we conservatively assume a net gain of 10 %.

One might feel that this market is due for a sell-off, but the numbers do suggest continued strength moving forward from here. Also:
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well done

at last somebody has observed what the market has been accustomed to doing rather than conjecture on an emotional basis.

i know personally 2 relations who have sold their investment when the dow was 22000 expecting a fall.

so i think most people are out of market and the market is in extremely strong hands who will NOT panic at a 5-10% fall.

they will not sell or even buy so downside is limited

since there is no one to sell the market will move steadily up as it has been doing.

this market will continue to go up until the crowd enters and the smart money will then exit or get a chance to exit.
 
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Turveyd said:
Could go either way after all 2 weeks before symptoms and transferable, so in 2 weeks there could be 10x's the cases and wild and too late,
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probably already in the price unless the virus really turns into something unexpectedly bad.....

but then who has stock to sell?

the strong hands can sit out these casual bear visits.....

not the crowd..... who can only short and since there is no one to follow up with selling, will only have to cover either at the same rates or higher which will only fuel another slow and steady up trend
 
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Not sure about 2020.
But I see 1750 btw now and 2022.

upload_2020-1-27_5-11-12.png
 
Laissez Faire said:
S&P 500 closed the year 2019 at 3230,78 with a net gain of 28,88 %.

Since 1950, the S&P 500 have had a net gain of 25 % or more 13 times excluding 2019. The last time in recent years was 2013 with a gain of 29,60 %.

Remarkably, the average yearly gain following such a year is + 11,25 % with only 2/13 years closing negatively.

Let’s narrow it down further and look at years where…

1) The year gain was equal or greater than 25 %

2) S&P opened at the bottom of the range and closed at the top

3) S&P made and closed at all time highs

This have happened 10 times since 1950 with 2019 being the 11th time.

For the following years we had an average yearly gain of 12,79 % with 9/10 years closing positively and a remarkable 10/10 years making all time highs.

The minimum upside gain was 4,63 %. The mean upside gain was 16,49 %. The largest was 28,99 %.

2020 Prediction/Expectation:

Extrapolating from those numbers then we could see a high reading by 2020 of

a) Minimum 3380

b) A mean expectation of 3760

c) A maximum of 4165

For the Close - we should be seeing 3550 if we conservatively assume a net gain of 10 %.

One might feel that this market is due for a sell-off, but the numbers do suggest continued strength moving forward from here. Also:
More...

Great Post! Thanks.
 
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