Ponzi Pensions

Quote from Misthos:

And how many people does a state have to hire every year to maintain pension contributions at a certain level? Does that number grow infinitely?

How laughable... and tragic.

This.

I am endlessly surprised at how much overlap there is between people paying lip service to "sustainability" and people who demand social policies that *require* exponential growth.
 
Quote from Random.Capital:

My understanding of the Dutch system is that the *only* guaranteed part (their equivalent of Social Security) represents something like 60% of minimum wage. In US terms that would be something like $650/month.

I'm 20 years from getting SS - if I never work another day in my life I've already qualified for a "guaranteed" ~$3k/month SS payment.

in 20 years I would not be surprised if $3k bought about 150 dollars of goods in todays money
 
Quote from Random.Capital:

Is there a non-partisan analysis available showing which states might already be there, and which ones are next?

(I'm not doubting your statement at all, would just like some background material)

All I know is that the state pension fund managers have gotten crushed these past two years. Many of them bought in big time in Sept 2008 - just as the market crashed. And a lot of them dumped everything in March - yup - just as the market shot up.

And what about Stuy town in Manhattan? Florida State pension fund lost $250 million! That's gotta leave a mark.

U.S. Public Pension Funds: $2 Trillion Short
http://seekingalpha.com/article/180860-u-s-public-pension-funds-2-trillion-short

I saw another article elsewhere some time ago - I'll try to find it.
 
Thanks, Misthos.

You'd think people would have realized by now that something as huge a chunk of the economy as pensions cannot, over any kind of useful timeframe, grow any faster than the overall economy.

Ditto for the real estate pension fund known as owner-occupied homes.
 
Quote from Misthos:

Here is an excerpt from my initial post in this thread:

One state retiree, 49 years old, paid, over the course of his entire career, a total of $124,000 towards his retirement pension and health benefits. What will we pay him? $3.3 million in pension payments over his life and nearly $500,000 for health care benefits -- a total of $3.8m on a $120,000 investment. Is that fair?

A retired teacher paid $62,000 towards her pension and nothing, yes nothing, for full family medical, dental and vision coverage over her entire career. What will we pay her? $1.4 million in pension benefits and another $215,000 in health care benefit premiums over her lifetime. Is it “fair” for all of us and our children to have to pay for this excess?


Our new governor in NJ stated this. Now, I don't know how Florida's Pension works. But in the above example, 124K becomes a payout (including healthcare) of $3.8 million. Check at what you contributed, and see what your payout will ultimately be. Does it make sense? If not, you may be in for a rude awakening.

Now who in the private sector gets those kind of results? My 401K sure as hell doesn't. But luckily, I invest my own as well and get better returns from loads of research.... most people don't have the time or knowledge to get that kind of research.

So... if Florida's pension #s don't add up in the end, should other people pay the shortfall? Because that's what is going on in many states and municipalities.

And you cannot compare the stress level and job (in)security between the private and public sectors. I always worked in performanced based jobs if I wasn't self employed. My salary relied on it. A typical government worker would have a heart attack on day one if they walked in my shoes.

And to make things even worse -- many of these government employees, including teachers, retire at their earliest opportunity, and then come back to work as "consultants" creating a double dipping situation.

My first job after college, and I have 3 degrees, involved working with government employees on joint projects. After about a year and a half I had to leave. The sense of entitlement they felt was mind boggling. And most of those I interacted with could not have obtained jobs in the private sector.

The WSJ a while back had an article on this. One retired fire chief in a rural town in CA was getting a pension of about $240K/year. And then he came back as a consultant and made another $200K increasing his income to north of $400K per year if I recall correctly. And his age? I think 50 or so. He was going to realize millions in retirement. Sad. And most certainly unsustainable.

Another guy -- city administrator in CA is getting almost $500K pension. Utterly pathetic.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124580096328044597.html
 
Quote from Random.Capital:

My understanding of the Dutch system is that the *only* guaranteed part (their equivalent of Social Security) represents something like 60% of minimum wage. In US terms that would be something like $650/month.

I'm 20 years from getting SS - if I never work another day in my life I've already qualified for a "guaranteed" ~$3k/month SS payment.
The most fundamental part of the Dutch system is that it only grants indexation (i.e. pays out in line with inflation), if the pension plan in question is adequately funded (as defined by the coverage ratio). If it isn't, the pensioners don't get paid (as far as I know, neither does the pension fund administrator). Moreover, as a scheme falls below a certain funding level, the pension regulator (the Dutch Central Bank, DNB) starts to get increasingly involved.

Another important thing about the Dutch system is that they actually care about the long-term viability of the setup. The rules that govern it (FTK) get scrutinized, tweaked and improved constantly by the regulator, as well as the various other industry and govt bodies. What is also quite remarkable is that the system is designed to apply indiscriminately to all pension schemes, public and private. So Misthos would be unlikely to get pissed off with some poor civil servant if he lived in Netherlands somewhere.
 
Quote from Misthos:

This topic really has me pissed off.

Recently, I was invited by a friend to join a group on facebook that was comprised of people that went to my elementary school. Apparently the same gym teacher I had was there for quite some time after I graduated. I learned this by visiting the page and seeing younger people refer to him as "Dr. ***"

I left out his name for privacy reasons... not that anyone would know him here. But anyway, I later learned that he got a doctorate and had all the students address him as "Dr." He was no doctor when I was there.

What Bullshit. This guy teaches phys ed for grades K-5 and gets a doctorate degree in some bullshit field. You know why? Because the more degrees you have, the higher your salary gets, and ultimately, your pension payout.

This guy got a bullshit doctorate in god knows what so he could retire with a ridiculous pension. All for gathering jump rope and kickballs for 7 year old kids.

You can view the salary of any NJ public employee at this site. Currently working or retired.

http://www.mycentraljersey.com/section/datauniverse01
 
Quote from peilthetraveler:

Thats hilarious. A doctors salary for gathering jump rope and kickballs for 7 year olds! LOL

Whats going to be sad though is that when this whole ponzi collapses, this gym teacher that thought he was going to be sitting on some beach drinking mai tais and looking at young half naked girls all day, will find that he is sitting in a studio apartment in the bad area of detroit eatting rice & beans and watching whatever fuzzy TV channel he gets with his rabbit ears antenna.

I believe in NJ, annual cola increases to state pensions is limited to 60% of CPI. Rampant inflation will decimate their buying power over a period of years. My experience is that very many NJ state retirees leave the state to avoid the high tax burden (property and income).
 
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