Poll: What is your Win Rate

[intradaybill]

Quote from N54_Fan:

You can make up whatever formulas you want to address trading however you view it in your head but these formulas I have given are not made up.

FYI,...your formula is for the slope of a line....y=mx+b.

Wrong gain...This formula is the line. The slope is just m.

As far as the subject discussed, I will say again that win rate is irrelevant and account ruin depends on money management alone given profitable systems. It is true that systems with low win rate will produce more consecutive losers but you forget the important fact that we are talking about profitable systems and such systems will also have large winners in proportion.

 

[N54_Fan]

Quote from intradaybill:

Wrong gain...This formula is the line. The slope is just m.

As far as the subject discussed, I will say again that win rate is irrelevant and account ruin depends on money management alone given profitable systems. It is true that systems with low win rate will produce more consecutive losers but you forget the important fact that we are talking about profitable systems and such systems will also have large winners in proportion.

I'm done on this subject...seriously believe what you want I don't care.

Until you or anyone else provides some data or proof then what you say is sounding like the Charlie Brown teacher to me.."muah muah muh muah muah muah,....muah muah ,..muah muah mauh mauh"

 

[etile]

Win Rate is irrelevant. The point is that we are all trying to make right bets in the market when we trade. Who goes into a trade thinking that they are on the wrong side of the trade? No one.

On that note, I find trading is best when one is going for sizeable gains. Or where a trader doesn't have to be right most of the time to make a decent nut.

Being right, with size, is the whole point of the game. Whether that happens once every thousand trades, 2 trades, 1 million trades, is irrelevant. When you know you are on the right side of a trade, you press the shit out of it. When you know you are on the wrong side of the trade, cut your losses.

If you can't discern whether you are on the right or wrong side of a trade with any expediency, then the whole discussion of what your win rate is entirely moot.

Maybe most traders here would prefer to be constantly in the game, glued to their screens moving shares in and out. I'd rather hit some homeruns and live my life.

 

[HATEtheRisk]

Quote from etile:

Win Rate is irrelevant. The point is that we are all trying to make right bets in the market when we trade. Who goes into a trade thinking that they are on the wrong side of the trade? No one.

On that note, I find trading is best when one is going for sizeable gains. Or where a trader doesn't have to be right most of the time to make a decent nut.

Being right, with size, is the whole point of the game. Maybe most traders here would prefer to be constantly in the game, glued to their screens moving shares in and out. I'd rather hit some homeruns and live my life.

Hey guys,

please keep it friendly.

Why are there so different views ???

I think it is because how i said earlier, its bcuz of the different trading styles of different traders.

Some traders may be exaclty same profitable with a lower "win rate" than one with a higher "win rate".
The result brings the "risk/reward" average of the strategie.

Or in other words, we should not talk only about WIN RATE in generall, we should also talk about the WIN RATE in Detail, how often you trades hit your minimum target, what should be at least 1 : 1 of your risk.......

It all is depending of the strategie.
The one strategy have an average reward of 1 : 1 .
An other have risk/reward of 1 : 5 or 1 : 10.

So you see the win ratio is here only important in that relation to the risk/reward.

Its really funny because you guys talking away of each other, totally misunderstanding, IMO. Its because you think in different strategies......

of course, the lower your win ratio is,the more trades do you have to make to maintain your capital and push it to next profit level.
and of course the opposite with a higer win rate.

IMO, The best combination is, a very high win rate, so high how it is possible and of course the best risk/reward ratio.

Yeah, cowboys, it is stupid to talk about that, IMO, its all clear anyway. That this is the answer.

Risk managment is not all, you need a very good edge, otherwhise, you dont need to trade you could go also in the casino, it would be the same, there you also have a win rate of 50%.....

PEACE and enjoy the sunday

 

[Zr1Trader]

Ok so I talked about a method of mine with very low winrate that has success as a trend follower. Lets hear from some Reversion to Mean guys with those ultra high winrates .

 

[HATEtheRisk]

Quote from Zr1Trader:

Ok so I talked about a method of mine with very low winrate that has success as a trend follower. Lets hear from some Reversion to Mean guys with those ultra high winrates .

Hey Zr1Trader,

IMO, it is here totaly useless to talk about what is better or more important, so long the people here are not puphlish their strategies, with Win Ratio, Win ratio in detail, average risk/reward ratio and so on.....

For me i am a trader with a high win rate of 90%.
But how you see in my statistic, only 60% of it are hitting my minimum target, what is risk/reward 1 : 2. And some % are give more risk/reward than that.

The other winners are smaller.

So in my style, i am able to bet more risk on every trade because of that higher win rate, but on the opposite i dont have huge risk/reward ratios. I just want to get in and out of the trade in the given time period i have given the trade to work out.

This is my trading style and it fits my personality and i love it.
There are a lot of different ways to make money in the markets.
So how i said, you cant compare them easy, just so. There are many many ways and every strategie have different aspects, what makes it profitable or not.

PEACE

 

[SteveNYC]

Quote from N54_Fan:

Let me correct this,...."you could have a win rate of 0.000000001% and still be profitable"

THAT too is a TRUE statement. Only problem is that is also called the POWERBALL LOTTO. Do you trade lottery tickets?

Again,...profit is not effected by win rate,...just your risk of ruin and draw down. You have to pay for A TON of lottery tickets before you eventually win unless you are lucky. Trading should not be a luck game. Its all about controlling risk per trade and risk of ruin (however anyone wishes to define that for themselves)

Your poll is missing the corresponding profit factor.

You need to couple the win to loss ratio with a avg win to avg loss ratio.

In other words, your poll shows only part of the profit picture.

So, you need to create a new poll that includes win rate and its corresponding profit factor.

A 100% win rate system might be better OR worse than a 50% win rate system. You don't know without knowing their respective profit factor.

 

[intradaybill]

Quote from SteveNYC:

A 100% win rate system might be better OR worse than a 50% win rate system. You don't know without knowing their respective profit factor.

A 100% win rate system has an infinite profit factor.

Regardless, you are correct, I have said this already that profit factor is more important than win rate.

If you make 5 times what you lose overall, you are a better trader than someone who makes 1.5 what he loses overall, no matter what the win rate is.

 

[N54_Fan]

Quote from SteveNYC:

Your poll is missing the corresponding profit factor.

You need to couple the win to loss ratio with a avg win to avg loss ratio.

In other words, your poll shows only part of the profit picture.

So, you need to create a new poll that includes win rate and its corresponding profit factor.

A 100% win rate system might be better OR worse than a 50% win rate system. You don't know without knowing their respective profit factor.

Did you not read the second set of MC sim that show the EXACT same thing using profit factor? The first set looked at equal EXPECTANCY and the second set looked at equal PROFIT FACTOR. Both sets of data proved the same thing....go back and reread the thread and my detailed posts.

BTW this is not my poll... I just commented on the original post. If you were talking to the original poster than ignore this.

 

[traderslair]

Quote from HATEtheRisk:

Risk managment is not all, you need a very good edge, otherwhise, you dont need to trade you could go also in the casino, it would be the same, there you also have a win rate of 50%.....

Again, this is false. As most of the garbage you post here, in a casino there is no win rate of 50%, it's lower, and it's in favor of the house.

Now please go find something else to play with, you don't know jack shit about trading or gambling.