Poll: Is it humanly possible to capture 3x ATR everday?

[vikana]

Quote from TraderZones:

What happened to Jack saying he was leaving Elitetrader forever, out of respect for Baron's business model?

Is Jack's word as bad as his trading?

So true. I believe the "agreement" Jack was referring to was for him to stay away. He has been banned several times under different aliases already :eek:

 

[Trader666]

LOL!!! What's amazing is that you're eagerly defending something you admittedly don't understand to ingratiate yourself to Hershey and his followers in the delusional hope that they'll let you in on their "secret."
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1947135#post1947135
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1940582#post1940582

Quote from romanus:
Amazing, isn't it. For over 3 years people did it profitably, posting trades a day in advance, and yet it's not enough.

 

[romanus]

Quote from Trader666:

... their "secret."

There is no secret - everything has been laid out in the open and reiterated multiple times.

Quote from Trader666:

...you're eagerly defending something...

There is nothing that needs to be defended. Ideas are proved just like these ideas have been proved to be true over and over again. Ideology is defended messing with other people brains. You, IQ28 with all of his aliases, hypostomus with all of his personalities, TZ/rcanfiel, bighog et al - a handful of individuals that turned ET into ideological pissing contest, instead of it being a collaboration among thinking people sharing ideas. A handful of individuals who are incapable of having ideas, all you have is your ideology.

 

[romanus]

Quote from HolyGrail:

... you are utterly confused ...

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=113310&perpage=6&pagenumber=733

Confusion is a healthy byproduct of a thought process naturally occurring when one's brain is working on a problem.
From Richard Feynman:
When you're thinking about something you don't understand you get this terrible unhappy feeling called confusion. You can't penetrate this thing and most of the time you feel rather unhappy with this confusion. And the reason for this confusion is that we're all some kind of apes trying to reach the banana - and we can't quite make it. And I feel like this all the time. I'm some kind of ape trying to put two sticks together and I always feel stupid. But sometimes the sticks go together and I reach the banana.

 

[bluebolt]

Quote from vikana:

So true. I believe the "agreement" Jack was referring to was for him to stay away. He has been banned several times under different aliases already :eek:

It's the same symptom he suffers from in trading and the reason he cannot become profitable.. a lack of discipline

 

[HolyGrail]

Quote from romanus:

Confusion is a healthy byproduct of a thought process naturally occurring when one's brain is working on a problem.
From Richard Feynman:
When you're thinking about something you don't understand you get this terrible unhappy feeling called confusion. You can't penetrate this thing and most of the time you feel rather unhappy with this confusion. And the reason for this confusion is that we're all some kind of apes trying to reach the banana - and we can't quite make it. And I feel like this all the time. I'm some kind of ape trying to put two sticks together and I always feel stupid. But sometimes the sticks go together and I reach the banana.

Just so you know, I have no problem with ANY method that can make you money. If someone can get it to work that is fine by me. Personally, just trying to read any of that gibberish is not worth my time no matter how successful a trading method it could be, but hey, to each his own.

My biggest problem is the 3*ATR EVERY DAY. If you even believe it is possible then you still believe in Santa Claus. Put some math to it and you will come to the realization that no fat ass is going to be sliding down your chimney later this year.

The atr of ES is anywhere from 15-35 so let's use 20 as an average. That would be 60 points or 3000 dollars per contract per day. Now Jack talks about trading hundreds of contracts at a time. That would make it at least 300,000 per day. If that were the case he would own a few countries,and could allow all of his followers to drink FREE koolaid for the rest of their lives.

Hell just trading 10 contracts would be 30,000 per day. So when you say people have been doing it successfully for 3 years they need to show you the 20 million dollars they made.

 

[Trader666]

LOL!!! How incredibly ironic and naive of you to say this. Nothing to be defended? My ideology? Jack claims to regularly make 3X daily range in ES, yet always squirms out of proving it. Jack is the undisputed king of ideology on ET and continually spouts off about his "pool extraction paradigm" and its alleged superiority to the "conventional wisdom," yet he did -24% in a trading contest. Jack is the one who published a paper called "Catch Up With Tomorrow's Paper Today" yet the central theme fails miserably when backtested...

Quote from romanus:

There is nothing that needs to be defended. Ideas are proved just like these ideas have been proved to be true over and over again. Ideology is defended messing with other people brains. You, IQ28 with all of his aliases, hypostomus with all of his personalities, TZ/rcanfiel, bighog et al - a handful of individuals that turned ET into ideological pissing contest, instead of it being a collaboration among thinking people sharing ideas. A handful of individuals who are incapable of having ideas, all you have is your ideology.

 

[jack hershey]

Quote from Trader666:

Jack, you're so BUSTED!!!

As usual I've cut out most of your irrelevant obfuscation which you churn out in an attempt to hide from objective testing of your "methods."

You attack my backtesting because it shows your "methods" for what they are. But your attacks lack merit because your arguments are full of holes and you contradict yourself.

For example, in reference to my testing of buying the "0 to 7 turn" (see last page of attached document), you tried to claim I wasn't scoring correctly...
Somehow in some way you did not get the drift that scoring involves three variables.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1951849#post1951849

Until I pointed out yet again I used Spyder's code, like that posted here:
http://www.wealth-lab.com/cgi-bin/WealthLab.DLL/editsystem?id=51659

Then you claimed that I should enter at the 0 to 7 turn and exit when 4 goes to 3:
For long trades: Here is the entry change: 0 goes to 7. Here is the exit change: 4 goes to 3. If a person did this back test, he would find out how holding from 7 to 4 inclusively makes money in a long trade.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1951849#post1951849

But when I confronted you about the exits being vastly outnumbered by entries, your tune changes to: I'm out to get you, there's much more to it than that, etc. Show me where in your document (attached) it says to do anything more than buy at 0 to 7 and sell at 4 to 3. It was precisely as simple as that when you wrote:
does anyone think I can penetrate Trader666 to get him to see that if the entry is 0 to 7 there is a coresponding exit called 4 to 3. lol. I don't think so. Is that mind wasted or isn't it???
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1952939#post1952939

But now that you can see I'm about to publish more objective test results you change your story completely. How typical.

Please publish.

Try to get the whole package on the table and Vikana will be helping you. He volumteered yesterday.

 

[jack hershey]

Quote from vikana:

That's disappointing - I can only guess why you choose not to describe your methodology in any testable detail.

The methodology has been described. You can find it in an assortment of journals.

I believe there is a convention in the financial industry re all the classes of information involved. I stated directly to you where we, the parties, are on that convention.

Validation was part of the process as I pointed out. Validation is done.

I had even offered a moderated forum where you/we could progress without any detractors.

The IT aspects of the business of doing what you suggested is beyond the scope of ET. Let me put a finer point on that statement I made to you before. IT is rhe way science handles the exchange of tasks people do with substantive data and, in this case logic. ET has absolutely no capability to carry out such enterprise.

Please check around and see what your colleagues have to say about how you fit into this setting: a moderated forum without any detractors. As a logician I am unable to get the picture; there seems to be one inconsistancy.

So with the brains of the methodology unwilling to discuss it in any substantive depth, I'm not sure the JH "methodology" has a place here in strategy trading.

This uncertainty you have can be settled. I have a track record and it is clear. There is a team that steps up to answer any Q that any purposeful person asks in order to support the work of that person. With regard to substantive depth there is no issue. As your judgement states our team can go to any depth conceivable by any intellectual that is here or shows up in the future.

The algorithm on the table presently is a foriegn language to practitioners in the CW algorithms. Big money and big money staffs are befuddled as they lay their heavy hands on the table at the beginning. They grow up in a very short time.

Taleb is a good example. He addresses the problem created by this crew of CW practitioners. For us as a team, we would noteven begin under the trite circumstances of these CW practices. You personaly notice your dilemma and you state it as a dilemma. I do not have empathy for Taleb, the CW practitioners nor your dilemma. You created where you are and it is very visible.

For anyone to entertain any science regarding this algorithm, they have to get oriented to doing science. the algorithm is one of certainty and it is non probabalitstic and as such it deals with non probabalistic information theory.

You are not talking to someone who is a clown like Derman. It took him a while to become an MTS at BTL. The day I walked through the door from WE (where I had a life time offer of employment), I was designated as MTS at BTL and it was only during the summer between grad school semesters. RPI confiscated my BTL journal subsequently upon my graduation.

So Jack: I suggest you refrain from posting here again, and may I suggest either the religion or chitchat forums. They are both good places for your meta-philosophical musings.

You are a volunteer who passed the moderator test; why don't you dignify the appointment and raise the stature of ET.

Your suggestion was not a possibility for technical reasons. It was not a possibility for conventional financial industry property standards. It was not a possibility from the descretionary limitations of the ET business model.

 

[Thunderdog]

At the time of this writing, 54 respondents, representing almost a quarter of those who participated, believe that capturing 3 times the ATR every day is possible. I wonder how many aliases were at play. Regardless, I am in awe of the stupidity that resides at ET.

Curiously, even Jack's principal adherent, Spydertrader, does not appear to believe the 3X ATR nonsense, and he's everyone's go-to guy for SCT. I suppose that these 54 respondents have bypassed Jack's mortal son to kneel directly at His alter.