POLL - Futures: How do you determine the trend?

POLL - Futures: How do you determine the trend?

  • Single MA

    Votes: 39 22.9%

  • Dual MA crossover

    Votes: 50 29.4%

  • Trendline

    Votes: 61 35.9%

  • N-day breakout

    Votes: 20 11.8%
  • Total voters
    170
Quote from cornholetrading:

As someone that wants a lot of proof for trend following to work where is yours saying that it does not work? Also your definition of trend trading of buying high and selling higher is only one definition of trend following. A lot of traders use the buy a pullback within a trend which is still trend following but lower risk then buying new highs. I guess the hard part is deciding where to buy during the pullback but all the same it is still trend following by trading in the establish direction of the trend with the assumption that it will continue.
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i have never seen a study that indicates that a series of moves in a certain direction has any more probability of continuing than reversing. if you flip a coin 5 times and it comes up head 5 times, are you in a heads trend??

the succesful trend followers cited in the book all have vast sums of capital,( and multiple funds in which the succesful ones are touted and the losers ignored) enabling them to weather the drastic drawdowns and diversify across multiple markets--something the average trader simply can't do--although the book makes the trader feel anyone can do this succesfully.

yes, ofcourse, if you are making money, directionally trading, you are with the trend, however, the methods touted in the book are far from ideal. i think the future truth people tested the little system the author puts forth with abysmal results. see futures truth for the details and to confirm. trend is only observable and only exists in the past---

does long term trend trading work? well, its the same thing as buy and hold-- and yes, ofcourse, if you are on the right side and hold you will make money.

best,

surfer:D
 
I have seen the same thing for mean reversion trading where they make money for a few days or months, or whatever time frame you are talking about and then blow out all the gains in a short period of time. To me it is like a trend follower who blows out, it is all how you manage the trades. For everything you have said about trend followers I can say about mean reversion. I could easily come to the conclusion that mean reversion does not work too as I have seen a lot of traders do what I mentioned above. By the way I never read the book, I am just talking about trend following in general. Actually I think a person can make money trading both styles as the each have their pros and cons and both styles can lead down the same road of success and failure. I don't think it is the style but the trader that eventually chooses which outcome occurs of success or failure.
 
Quote from cornholetrading:

I have seen the same thing for mean reversion trading where they make money for a few days or months, or whatever time frame you are talking about and then blow out all the gains in a short period of time. To me it is like a trend follower who blows out, it is all how you manage the trades. For everything you have said about trend followers I can say about mean reversion. I could easily come to the conclusion that mean reversion does not work too as I have seen a lot of traders do what I mentioned above. By the way I never read the book, I am just talking about trend following in general. Actually I think a person can make money trading both styles as the each have their pros and cons and both styles can lead down the same road of success and failure. I don't think it is the style but the trader that eventually chooses which outcome occurs of success or failure.
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absolutely. i agree with you---- however, based on my experience and studies, the statistical edge is not with trend following ( as presented in the book). does this mean trend folllowing can't work, ofcourse not--with proper money management any tactic can work. i simply tend to prefer methods that show a statistical edge combined with money management instead of fighting against the odds.


best,

surfer

remember the tests i am refering to are on the Sp500 and NDX not commodities
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

remember the tests i am refering to are on the Sp500 and NDX not commodities
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Thanks for your clarification by providing some conditions. Bye.
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

absolutely. i agree with you---- however, based on my experience and studies, the statistical edge is not with trend following ( as presented in the book). does this mean trend folllowing can't work, ofcourse not--with proper money management any tactic can work. i simply tend to prefer methods that show a statistical edge combined with money management instead of fighting against the odds.


best,

surfer

remember the tests i am refering to are on the Sp500 and NDX not commodities
More...

Marketsniffer, what was your definitive to trading before "your book" was published? To clarify, before "this book" you keep mentioning was published, what was your previous trading bible?
 
Quote from cornholetrading:

As someone that wants a lot of proof for trend following to work where is yours saying that it does not work? Also your definition of trend trading of buying high and selling higher is only one definition of trend following. A lot of traders use the buy a pullback within a trend which is still trend following but lower risk then buying new highs. I guess the hard part is deciding where to buy during the pullback but all the same it is still trend following by trading in the establish direction of the trend with the assumption that it will continue.
More...

Hey cornhole,

I was just wondering why you think buying a pullback within a trend is lower risk then buying a new high?

5yr
 
Quote from Charlie Dow:

Marketsniffer, what was your definitive to trading before "your book" was published? To clarify, before "this book" you keep mentioning was published, what was your previous trading bible?
More...


against my better judgement, i'll throw you a bone---

it's not "my book".

the book is trend f*llowing by m*chael cov*l.

it is certainly far from being my trading bible. i mention it, since it defines trend following.


surfer
 
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