POLL - Futures: How do you determine the trend?

[Charlie Dow]

Quote from marketsurfer:

yes, i agree with you, for the most part. my primary concern is with the definition and methods described in the book mentioned.

surfer

Cool, if I had read that book I would probably have problems with his definitions as well. I have yet to read any book or article that consistently defines Trend. There are always too many inconsistencies.

I trade differently though. My definition of trend is strictly defined in a closed environment and that is how I can define it. My definition of Trend is not HIS!

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from Charlie Dow:

Cool, if I had read that book I would probably have problems with his definitions as well. I have yet to read any book or article that consistently defines Trend. There are always too many inconsistencies.

I trade differently though. My definition of trend is strictly defined in a closed environment and that is how I can define it. My definition of Trend is not HIS!

ok. looking forward to seeing your systems results in march.

best wishes,

surfer

 

[Vienna]

Quote from marketsurfer:

vienna,

these are lovely platitudes and no doubt make sense to someone without long term market experience. however, the examples you provide are not applicable to the markets in most cases. is your last initial C. by any chance??



surfer

First of all, no, my last initial is not "C". Not even close. And it is not by "chance" that it is a different initial either. Be careful with your terminology...there was a definite, measurable movement of my parents towards each other that created that initial... statistically improbable yet here I am. One could almost call the movement a strong Trend.

(I tried, but just can not resist the temptation to speculate if the initial "G." of your last name MIGHT have been created by a purely random meeting ... I hate to ask this but- was a coin tossed? Juuust kidding!)

Well, at least you find my (or Livermore's) "platitudes" lovely.

But as you know, to be in the market for a long time is not necessarily an achievement by itself and does not a supertrader make, just a long timer...
In any case, how on earth you find the analogy of a surfer riding a wave not applicable but then call yourself "marketsurfer" beats me, but hey- that's OK... we all live with our contradictions...

 

[marketsurfer]

vienna,

yes, i agree, i have a most unusual surname. however, i do assure you, its not by chance. it is from alsace, and many good things from that land of plenty have automagically/ genetically transfered themselves into the present.

do you hail from the neighboring land your handle suggests?


i'll elaborate on my earlier point later.....


surfer

 

[Vienna]

Quote from steve46:

I agree with your comment Vienna:

Of course my own experience is quite limited. It will be 12 years this Christmas, and in the big scheme of things that is nothing.


I like your sailboat analogy as well. I have an old Mariner (50 feet of real wood and teak rails, no "poptops" for me) and even though it has a small engine (Volvo Diesal) I kind of like to wing it, anticipating that the winds that have always been friendly in the past will continue to move me through the water. Here on the west coast I have participated in five Whitney series (offshore) races and never once been stranded for lack of it.


Good sailing to you,

Steve

Same to you, and many fresh breezes to catch... they are out there, every day.

 

[porgie]

there is no such thing as noise....only price movement.....small they may be sometimes but trends they still are....try to hop a moving freight running in opposite direction train is moving...not wise

 

[cornholetrading]

Quote from marketsurfer:

once again, charlie, your observations are correct. however, to claim that you can profit on 90% plus of your entries is where my issue lies with your claims. perhaps i'll change my mind in march once i see the objective test results.....

but i doubt it!

Now that is a legitimate point about claiming profit on 90% plus of the entries. Defining a trend and recognizing how to read it is one thing, but timing entries with a win percentage that high would be quite unbelievable unless proven - which is where this should be going in Feb. I guess at that point we will be able to see how legit those claims are. Hey even 80% would be quite inspiring.

 

[cornholetrading]

Quote from 5yrtrader:

Hey cornhole,

I was just wondering why you think buying a pullback within a trend is lower risk then buying a new high?

5yr

I think it depends on the market and the environment at the time. If you think about the reward it could be a lot higher then just buying the breakout but only IF you can define when to enter on the pullback. So if you get a false breakout you still make money. A lot of markets that are NOT in big bull runs tend to have a lot of noise around breakout levels and tend to have false breakouts so I feel those are higher risk spots for potential less reward then learning how to trade the pullbacks where you make more when you are right and worst case lose as much as if you tried to buy a breakout that did not work.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from cornholetrading:

Now that is a legitimate point about claiming profit on 90% plus of the entries. Defining a trend and recognizing how to read it is one thing, but timing entries with a win percentage that high would be quite unbelievable unless proven - which is where this should be going in Feb. I guess at that point we will be able to see how legit those claims are. Hey even 80% would be quite inspiring.

for sure. at even 55-60% you could potentially corner the world's markets --- if you posess the nerve and capital.

LOL!

surfer

 

[Charlie Dow]

Quote from porgie:

there is no such thing as noise....only price movement.....small they may be sometimes but trends they still are....try to hop a moving freight running in opposite direction train is moving...not wise

I agree, I just used that term because most traders do not realize that every price move is part of an oscillation.