Quote from marketsurfer:
charles,
is an up trend 3 units, 4 units or X units of increasing price?
in addition, what tests have you performed/observed that prove or even define trend. the tests i have observed show a negative correlation of past returns to future returns of trend following methods. remember, the public are trend followers ( buying new highs, selling new lows) by default, and we all know what happens to most of the public......
surfer
You continue to try to specify a number of "units" to a trend and that is wrong. Each Trend is unique in the number of oscillations it contains. Those oscillations are strictly defined within a ridged chart increment environment and it will sustain itself until a specific rules based reversal takes place to reverse that Trend. For this matter consolidation can be strictly defined and viewed as well. When working in a fixed environment of Price and Momentum, price can only Trend or Consolidate. By outlining strict rules in that environment, Price trends approximately 90% of the time and consolidates the other 10%. You don't believe that or can't see that because you do not know how to set up a ridged chart increment environment, apply a fixed set of Rules to it and stick by it. Don't feel bad, most traders don't have the discipline to do it and that is why they expound that "Trends only exist is hindsight". It's easier to continue thinking as you do then to do some fixed research to pop your own bubble.
You asked a question in another thread, which I attached below. You never answered it. I can only imagine it is because it required some thought on your part, some time to work it out and the end result of your opinion getting a hole poked in it. Again, don't feel bad, traders don't like their world turned upside down but then again neither does anyone.
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Quote from marketsurfer:
--price moves 5 units up, will the next unit of time/price be up? does the 5 units of price in an increasing amount mean that the 6th unit of time/price be greater than the 5th unit? of course not. heads/tails is the perfect analogy.
best,
surfer
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To begin with, Trends are not hypothetical so they can not be created in hypothetical environments.
Price Oscillations must be specifically defined to be labeled correctly. Price must be viewed as well in a non-varying/specific volume bar or contract bar format generated by a data provider attuned to building the bars accurately and consistently.
Next add a simple but smoothed momentum indicator tuned to visually verify the creation of these oscillations at extreme and non-extreme levels.
Next provide the following needed information generated from "A" single chart for you price situation, based on (1 bar = Average Daily Volume divided by 140) using the above parameters. [140 is simple created to easily view the Trend and can be adjusted for your own clarity within this specific environment]
What was the previous extreme oscillation top in relation to the current price? (Be specific in relation to price oscillation outcomes)
What was the previous minor oscillation top in relation to the current price? (Be specific in relation to price oscillation outcomes)
What was the previous extreme oscillation bottom in relation to the current price? (Be specific in relation to price oscillation outcomes)
What was the previous minor oscillation bottom in relation to the current price? (Be specific in relation to price oscillation outcomes)
What was the sequential outcomes of the previous 5 or 6 extreme oscillations? (Be specific in relation to price oscillation outcomes)
What was the sequential outcomes of the previous 5 or 6 minor oscillations? (Be specific in relation to price oscillation outcomes)
Provide me the following information and I will answer your question with better than 90% accuracy. Without it and I agree with your head & tails analogy. Provide me the specifics of what I ask and your head & tails analogy flys out the window so fast it seemingly disappears.
If you do the work, the points I've requested will flawless plot out so no fudging.
