POLL - Futures: How do you determine the trend?

POLL - Futures: How do you determine the trend?

  • Single MA

    Votes: 39 22.9%

  • Dual MA crossover

    Votes: 50 29.4%

  • Trendline

    Votes: 61 35.9%

  • N-day breakout

    Votes: 20 11.8%
  • Total voters
    170
Quote from Charlie Dow:

.....
. I'm quite versed in Physics, Algebra, Calculus, Analytical Analysis and Quantum Problem Solving as well.
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You are still around? I thought that you were telling ET that you were leaving ET for good.

But as the disclaimer says: past performance is no garantee of future performance.

In other words: The market gives shit about if you have a degree or are a loo cleaner. The big question is: can you trade?

And if you can trade then you are not charging people 300 USD for attending your chatroom.

'nough said

vital analitics
 
Quote from vital-analitix:

Charlie Dow aka Proflogic aka Bill Schamp has some logic that does not stack up to close scrutiny.

Just like that in hindsight an MA can be proven to have worked so is his method. Find the discussion of his method and you'll discover that he is insisting on certain values, certain timeframes (arrh should say volume bars) and that these values are constantly changing....

And that just nothing short of curve fitting which looks good in hindsight.

The proverbial brown matter as usual presented as some mumbo jumbo holy grail....

vital analitics
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What values are constantly changing?

Minute Charts contain a varying number of transactions & shares or contracts traded per bar. These are the worse charts for consistency in price action.
Tick Charts contain a fixed number of transaction but the shares or contracts per those transactions vary. These are a little better but still inconsistent.
Volume or Contract Bar Charts contain a fixed number of shares or contracts traded per bar if build by a reliable vendor. They are flawlessly consistent.

This is a fact verified by all reputable data vendors out there. Your statement of their contantly changing values is easily confirmed by the world's top vendors as being false.
 
Charles,

Your assumptions based on "bars" is in error at the root and your earlier querry is seriously flawed, therefore i am unable to provide an answer. however, i apprieciate your sharing of your method and if it works for you GREAT ! unfortunately, you appear very unflexible--which is the death kneel for a trader.

perhaps a review of higher statistical methods will show you the error of your analysis.

best,


surfer
 
Quote from vital-analitix:

You are still around? I thought that you were telling ET that you were leaving ET for good.

But as the disclaimer says: past performance is no garantee of future performance.

In other words: The market gives shit about if you have a degree or are a loo cleaner. The big question is: can you trade?

And if you can trade then you are not charging people 300 USD for attending your chatroom.

'nough said

vital analitics
More...

I figure that as long as individuals like you were allowed to post lies without giving your real name, I would stay around to defend myself.
I call trades in front of live people with deadly accuracy. I have done it locally, in Asia, Los Angeles & next week in Germany.

There was no charge for the ChatRoom and there never has been but is a locked environment. Over the last 5 years approximately 120 people paid $300 (a one time charge) to access my research and to have the right to access the trading parameters, rules and chatroom. That works out to a total monetarily generated income of US$36,000.00 over 5 years or approximately US $7,200.00 per year or US$138.47 per week. This was to cover the minimal expenses of the website, research expenses and time in doing the daily market assessment newsletter. If you think someone could live off that you are more delusional than your posts portray. The site has been closed to outsiders for over 6 months now as well. There are tons of your so called "Gurus" out there making millions of dollars peddling their wears and you berate me for perpetrating original thought. In all of my posts I have NEVER ONCE mentioned what I do. That in itself speaks volumes about you.
 
Quote from Charlie Dow:

Logic is implied. So is common sense.
Thanks for the Einstein compliment . . . there was a good reason he left "Das Heimatland". It had to do with closemindedness.
No one made the error of dividing by zero but you.

Trends can't be predicted but you wouldn't understand that concept because you can't understand the realm it is being presented. You think trends have to have a predictive quality to be useful and that is the error of your approach trying to interpret my explanation.
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It was not a compliment. Logic impiled is most dangerous when not applied!
However I do note that you said my way of determining a trend had no predictive value. # 1 I never claimed it did. #2 you appeared to attack the method of my determining a trend. Since you attacked the method versus attacking the strawman conclusion that I did not draw(predictiveness). I naturally assumed you meant trends had predictive values.


Now you contend trends can't be predicted.(lol,pretty much my point to start with but don't let that stop you)

LOL
You sound like a market letter writer. Indicators point to a continued upward move in prices , unless of course they don't.
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

Charles,

Your assumptions based on "bars" is in error at the root and your earlier querry is seriously flawed, therefore i am unable to provide an answer. however, i apprieciate your sharing of your method and if it works for you GREAT ! unfortunately, you appear very unflexible--which is the death kneel for a trader.

perhaps a review of higher statistical methods will show you the error of your analysis.

best,


surfer
More...

Again you make a statement you can't back up with fact.
Why are my assumptions based on "bars" in error at the root and the earlier query seriously flawed? Saying it doesn't make it so. You say a lot in generalities but never back it up. I lay out specifics you blow off because you are too lazy to work them through.
It is not that I am inflexible, I trade in an inflexible environment. The only way to determine Trend is to create a ridged environment of consistency of information and fixed rules.
Again, Statistics has nothing to do with what I do.
 
Quote from hans37:

It was not a compliment. Logic impiled is most dangerous when not applied!
However I do note that you said my way of determining a trend had no predictive value. # 1 I never claimed it did. #2 you appeared to attack the method of my determining a trend. Since you attacked the method versus attacking the strawman conclusion that I did not draw(predictiveness). I naturally assumed you meant trends had predictive values.


Now you contend trends can't be predicted.(lol,pretty much my point to start with but don't let that stop you)

LOL
You sound like a market letter writer. Indicators point to a continued upward move in prices , unless of course they don't.
More...

I did not attack your method . . . you never stated it.
I assumed from your statement using "prediction" (I never used that word), that that was your implied thought. If I was wrong, I apologize.
I state Trends can't be predicted, only read. There is a major difference but if you won't entertain the concept, it doesn't pay to elaborate. They will maintain themselves until they reverse. (This stated under a strict chart increment environment).

I repeat. You are the master of your environment . . . good trading to you and your opinions.
I am the master of my fixed rule based chart increment environment.
I would falter in your environment and you would falter in mine.

I am not trying to convince you to move into my environment. I don't want you here. I just try to open discussion to the possibilities of other science or schools of thought.
 
Quote from Charlie Dow:

I did not attack your method . . . you never stated it.
I assumed from your statement using "prediction" (I never used that word), that that was your implied thought. If I was wrong, I apologize.
I state Trends can't be predicted, only read. There is a major difference but if you won't entertain the concept, it doesn't pay to elaborate. They will maintain themselves until they reverse. (This stated under a strict chart increment environment).

I
More...




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Quote from hans37:

What a bunch of mumbo jumbo, BS.
The slope of a line can be determined by any 2 points and will give you a trend. The only question is: how much deviation from this particular "trend' direction do you consider necessary to pronounce another trend?
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linus




The slope of the line from any 2 points in no way shape or form determines trend. It determines degree of slope. There is no way to determine Price will continue in the direction of your slope from just two points.

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I get you claim alzheimers now huh?
The implication clearly is that 2 points are not sufficient but more or something else is useful in determining price.

So tell me linus when does an an oscillation become a trend?
 
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