POLL - Futures: How do you determine the trend?

[marketsurfer]

Quote from illiquid:

It's not so much whether trends exist or are predictible or not (that was a fun thread), the problem is that those looking for trends to trade are most likely unable to make any money off them.

In other words, don't look for trends if you want to trade them.

hi,

very unique perspective. would you mind elaborating a little on the last sentence.

thanks !

surfer

 

[marketsurfer]

the value of trend ( man, i hate that word! ) is only known and attainable after the entry is made in a directional trade. of course, if the trade makes money one is intrend, if it loses money one is against the trend. untill the entry is made, the concept of trend has no real meaning.

best,
surfer

 

[hans37]

If I'm "In" (aka profitable ) it's a trend, otherwise why should I care?

 

[Charlie Dow]

Quote from marketsurfer:

the value of trend ( man, i hate that word! ) is only known and attainable after the entry is made in a directional trade. of course, if the trade makes money one is intrend, if it loses money one is against the trend. untill the entry is made, the concept of trend has no real meaning.

best,
surfer

In your world you are correct. If you can't define it or incapable of defining it or unable to define it then there is no way it can exist.

In the early days of mechanical automotive power, traveling at 100 miles per hours was thought to be impossible. I guess you still drive a Stanley Steamer. Rock On!

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from Charlie Dow:

In your world you are correct. If you can't define it or incapable of defining it or unable to define it then there is no way it can exist.

In the early days of mechanical automotive power, traveling at 100 miles per hours was thought to be impossible. I guess you still drive a Stanley Steamer. Rock On!

charles,

is an up trend 3 units, 4 units or X units of increasing price?

in addition, what tests have you performed/observed that prove or even define trend. the tests i have observed show a negative correlation of past returns to future returns of trend following methods. remember, the public are trend followers ( buying new highs, selling new lows) by default, and we all know what happens to most of the public......

surfer

 

[illiquid]

Quote from marketsurfer:

would you mind elaborating a little on the last sentence.

thanks !

surfer

Was kinda tongue-in-cheek, but what I meant was that trend-followers are perhaps the most egregious members of the what-has-happened-before-will-continue-to-happen school of trading. Essentially, just about all traders look to ride a strong up or down move in their respective time frames, and so the objectives are the same. But those that label themselves as "trend-seekers" usually end up being last in boarding and exiting the train, not to mention the easiest to shake off as well.

 

[Lights]

trends exist. how long it lasts depends on number of participants.

ask your risk manager at any prop firm or professional trading desk what the most popular stock is on a daily basis right now and if daytrading interest in it is increasing. i can guarantee that this stock or sector is in a trend that will continue as long as trading volume is consistent or increasing. one has a higher probability of profiting directionally on that trend than randomly selecting stock.

theory means nothing. real world occurences is everything.

 

[bighog]

A trend is a trend, no matter if it is on a monthly chart or a 5 minute chart. just look for something that moves intraday and do your thing....ES is KING....

I bet it is easy to catch a trend before it starts.....the trick is to know what a false breakout and or a retest is composed and adjust your stops etc accordingly.....

There is "NO" perfection in this game, tests and retests are what makes it interesting, .....CHASING a trend never worked for me, i would always get on board just as a retrace was to start...RATS. But now i watch as i do to predict the move coming...but to say trend followers is a general statement, there are many variables in catching a daily intraday trend......Wide eyes help a lot.....

 

[Lights]

that most people cannot identify trend properly does not mean that it does not exist.

there are trendsetters, bandwagoners and bagholders (the public). this tells me that not all people perceive things the same way. also supports an increasingly unpopular concept called talent.

Quote from marketsurfer:

charles,

is an up trend 3 units, 4 units or X units of increasing price?

in addition, what tests have you performed/observed that prove or even define trend. the tests i have observed show a negative correlation of past returns to future returns of trend following methods. remember, the public are trend followers ( buying new highs, selling new lows) by default, and we all know what happens to most of the public......

surfer

 

[CL Lim]

Futures: How do you determine the trend?

My question is "How do you determine the strength of a trend"?