POLL: Do you believe you can reasonably anticipate or identify a trend day?

Do you believe you can reasonably anticipate or identify a trend day?

  • No

    Votes: 61 52.1%

  • Yes, with somewhere between 60% and 75% reliability

    Votes: 26 22.2%

  • Yes, with better than 75% reliability

    Votes: 30 25.6%
  • Total voters
    117
Thunderdog said:
anticipate or predict with reasonable confidence when a trend day is either about to occur,
to identify it before it has run its course.
the intraday traders who get in and then hang on for much of the duration of the trading day.

dentify a move with legs in advance.

I have to content myself with capturing moves with reasonable accuracy but of indeterminate magnitude and duration.

And so, I'd like to know how many or what proportion of intraday traders here believe they can anticipate a trend day that they normally ride for the duration. If you trade intraday, and particularly any of the indexes, then please participate in this poll and provide any relevant comment.
More...

I am interested in hearing people's techniques for determining larger moves the direction and the length.

To your question I think it can be done though I am not sure I can do it all the time.

In reverse, part of the question is determining when a day will (or has) dissolved into a chop.

I has noticed for the ES that there are multiday moves which are in one direction and the extent of the mulitday move helps with that day. For example, if the multiday move is 40 points and you have done 20 of the 30 you still "have room" for the upcoming day.

Another part of the question is in range determination. If you can reasonably estimate the days range
AND IF
you can tell when the first of the HOD or LOD is in place, then you have a basis for determining a trend from HOD to LOD or vice versa.
 
Scaleout.Scalper said:
Trend days prediction aka large moves with high accuracy ?

ah-huh
More...
%%%%%
Yes, but NOT prediction; markets do NOT work that way.[a] As far as probabilities of a profitable trend trade; yes[z] As far as HI accuracy, bull markets are not that dificult, but notice i did not even repeat the word ''trend day'' mainly because i like being paid multiple days,[large moves] in a row.

BEAR markets can be more difficult[+ more fun]; LEH, GM, DALBEAR STEARNS went belly up, bottom bucks in a bear market[bears live below 200dma-Alan farley + IBD/Investors Business Daily]];if the US Fed + Japanese central bank had not stepped in a bear probably would have started in OCT 2014.
Stock Traders Almanac noted a Jan Up-down pattern that hits 88%/+;but looks like 2014 is part of theUPtrend bull market 12%, not 88%[Even though jan was down in SPY,QQQ.....]

Wisdom is profitable to direct.
 
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