POLL: Do you believe you can reasonably anticipate or identify a trend day?

[Thunderdog]

A fair number of ET members have at one time or another claimed to be able to anticipate or predict with reasonable confidence when a trend day is either about to occur, or to identify it before it has run its course. As I understand it, these are typically the intraday traders who get in and then hang on for much of the duration of the trading day.

Personally, I have never been able to do so, picking up dribs and drabs that sometimes amount to little and at other times to something more. But I have never been able to identify a move with legs in advance. I have to content myself with capturing moves with reasonable accuracy but of indeterminate magnitude and duration. Therefore, I never hold for the duration, preferring to scale out and then exit any number of times in either direction during the course of a trading day rather than hang on.

And so, I'd like to know how many or what proportion of intraday traders here believe they can anticipate a trend day that they normally ride for the duration. If you trade intraday, and particularly any of the indexes, then please participate in this poll and provide any relevant comment.

 

[milimabuse]

good thread !

the answer is:

I believe more than 60% of regular traders can identify a trend each day!

they will also make money in "good phases", but lose in bad phases

so whether they're profitable at year-end depends on which of the 2 phases were more frequent

99% will lose money for a couple of reasons:

I. execution (even is the spread is only 0.01 on a 100$ stock). that' s a LOT when traded frquently
II. stops
large stops=poor risk/return
small stops=too many losers in proportion to winners
III. a positive trend can become a dull range or a negative reversal the next minute. and DOES very very very often..

 

[Dackster]

Quote from Thunderdog:

A fair number of ET members have at one time or another claimed to be able to anticipate or predict with reasonable confidence when a trend day is either about to occur, or to identify it before it has run its course. As I understand it, these are typically the intraday traders who get in and then hang on for much of the duration of the trading day.

Personally, I have never been able to do so, picking up dribs and drabs that sometimes amount to little and at other times to something more. But I have never been able to identify a move with legs in advance. I have to content myself with capturing moves with reasonable accuracy but of indeterminate magnitude and duration. Therefore, I never hold for the duration, preferring to scale out and then exit any number of times in either direction during the course of a trading day rather than hang on.

And so, I'd like to know how many or what proportion of intraday traders here believe they can anticipate a trend day that they normally ride for the duration. If you trade intraday, and particularly any of the indexes, then please participate in this poll and provide any relevant comment.

After reading this, i will always know you are a failed trader,.....always.

 

[Thunderdog]

Quote from milimabuse:

...can identify a trend each day!

they will also make money in "good phases", but lose in bad phases

so whether they're profitable at year-end depends on which of the 2 phases were more frequent...

But that doesn't suggest the trader is adequately anticipating trend days. Rather, by your description, it suggests that he makes money during trending days and loses money during non-trending days. Would he not endeavor to avoid the "bad phases" if he could anticipate them? Your observation seems to support my own view. I can get by during either a trending or non-trending day to a varying degree, but it has nothing to do with calling it a trend day either in advance or in its early stages.

 

[Thunderdog]

Quote from Dackster:

After reading this, i will always know you are a failed trader,.....always.

Thank you for your insight. Please let us know how it works out for you when you go live.

 

[gigsup]

Some of this is just plain ol' tape reading and instincts.

Predicting in advance is tough. At least in my case, you don't

really know until the market tells you with price action.

I am sure others on this board have more sophisticated

techniques. Prophecy is something I am no good at.

 

[Arthur Deco]

No. All I can tell with near certainty is that a certain point in a retrace one more leg will occur in the trend direction. Persistence of trend beyond that is IMO impossible to predict.

 

[ER9]

definately not. i'm not sure i would even bother trying. for me iv'e learned its better to just react to whats unfolding and forget trying to inject my opinion of where i think the markets going to go. thats when i usually get myself in trouble.

 

[Dackster]

Quote from Thunderdog:

Thank you for your insight. Please let us know how it works out for you when you go live.

Whatever, numb brain. You've been posting on this site since 2002, and this thread is the best you can come up with? How very mundane of you, a complete waster you are. You should be ashamed of the bad example you set posting crap like this thread. Get a life TDawg, you miserable clown. You'll never make it in this game, you are a loser, it's in your posts.


Yours,


Dackster.

 

[Arthur Deco]

Dackster, if you truly want to humbiliate Thunderdog, let me suggest that you post something substantive. Perhaps even as complicated as "yes" or "no."