POLL: Do you believe you can reasonably anticipate or identify a trend day?

[Dackster]

Quote from Thunderdog:

I don't think he liked my opinions expressed in the volume threads. Either that or it's the roughage thing. Or both.

Haha! Very nice indeed, you remember the volume thread, yes another fantabulous thread where nothing was resolved except for the issue of blind and uneducated opinion. Volume signatures are key to realising trends on all TFs, but i wouldn't get out of bed for the sub 1hr candles. Just my opinion of course.

TD, i do appologise for my previous behaviour towards your good self, i hope you will accept this.


Yours,


Dackster.

 

[Cesko]

Quote from Thunderdog:

Thank you for your insight. Please let us know how it works out for you when you go live.

Funny, there is an insight. Here it is:

Do you believe you can reasonably anticipate or identify a trend day?

IRRELEVANT QUESTION.


P.S. Your spelling is certainly one of the best on ET.

 

[Arthur Deco]

Thunderdog, I just noticed Dackster's English English spelling. You may be neighbors.

 

[Dackster]

Quote from Thunderdog:

A fair number of ET members have at one time or another claimed to be able to anticipate or predict with reasonable confidence when a trend day is either about to occur, or to identify it before it has run its course. As I understand it, these are typically the intraday traders who get in and then hang on for much of the duration of the trading day.

Personally, I have never been able to do so, picking up dribs and drabs that sometimes amount to little and at other times to something more. But I have never been able to identify a move with legs in advance. I have to content myself with capturing moves with reasonable accuracy but of indeterminate magnitude and duration. Therefore, I never hold for the duration, preferring to scale out and then exit any number of times in either direction during the course of a trading day rather than hang on.

And so, I'd like to know how many or what proportion of intraday traders here believe they can anticipate a trend day that they normally ride for the duration. If you trade intraday, and particularly any of the indexes, then please participate in this poll and provide any relevant comment.

Thunderdog,

Let me give you an example of how a 'typical' volume signature works. Firstly let's start with a well pronounced cycle, let's say a weekly cycle on the NQ. The end of the distributive phase starts with the 'mark down' or the first leg down, you will get X amount of contracts bought at the peak around a certain price or zone. Then comes the second leg down, you'll probably see more contracts being bought than the first leg. Then the third phase or leg comes into play, this is the 'teller' leg, if buying dries up then the market is ready to start selling off at higher prices. The confirmation comes in the appearance of strength to the upside (big green candles).

If you are not sure about any of this, feel free to ask questions.



Yours,



Dackster.

 

[Spike Trader]

Quote from Thunderdog:

Thank you for coming to my defense. However, anyone who trades with real money is a struggling trader. Admittedly, some struggle more than others.

not true.....pm me and i will give guarnted stratagies..

 

[Thunderdog]

Quote from Cesko:

Funny, there is an insight. Here it is:

Do you believe you can reasonably anticipate or identify a trend day?

IRRELEVANT QUESTION.


P.S. Your spelling is certainly one of the best on ET.

If you actually read my opening post in its entirety, then you would know that I essentially feel the same way. However, I am curious to know how many people here see it differently.

 

[Thunderdog]

Quote from Spiker:

not true.....pm me and i will give guarnted stratagies..

You're very kind, but I'm fairly comfortable with my trading in its present form. You are liable to confuse me.

 

[Thunderdog]

Quote from Dackster:

...Then the third phase or leg comes into play, this is the 'teller' leg, if buying dries up then the market is ready to start selling off at higher prices. The confirmation comes in the appearance of strength to the upside (big green candles)...

Are you saying that you won't act on the upside unless and until you get volume confirmation, all else being equal?

 

[CowboyBlue]

Anyone who tells you they can identify when there is going to be a trend day greater than 75% of the time in advance is full of shit, think of the money that would be involved in that... All you can do in my opinion is identify when something has the potential to trend and just hold. I do this often times with a system i am trading and i am wrong more than half the time but you only need 1-2 trades out of 10 to trend all day to be profitable, once in a while you get three to five and it ends up being a monster day. If you are using proper stops, and allowing the trending ones to run. All day.

If you could identify a stock that is going to trend in advance 80 percent of the time all you would have to do is flip a coin for which way the trend is going to go and you would now have a system with 4 winners out of every 10 trades that profit 5 times or more than each loser. Do the math on that one.

If you are running a trend system where you are guessing trends in advance, and you nail 2 out of 10, then the other 8 still have a 50/50 chance of being winners or losers so imo the biggest thing is to put your money into a basket of stocks so that no one stock will make or break you.

Quote from Thunderdog:

A fair number of ET members have at one time or another claimed to be able to anticipate or predict with reasonable confidence when a trend day is either about to occur, or to identify it before it has run its course. As I understand it, these are typically the intraday traders who get in and then hang on for much of the duration of the trading day.

Personally, I have never been able to do so, picking up dribs and drabs that sometimes amount to little and at other times to something more. But I have never been able to identify a move with legs in advance. I have to content myself with capturing moves with reasonable accuracy but of indeterminate magnitude and duration. Therefore, I never hold for the duration, preferring to scale out and then exit any number of times in either direction during the course of a trading day rather than hang on.

And so, I'd like to know how many or what proportion of intraday traders here believe they can anticipate a trend day that they normally ride for the duration. If you trade intraday, and particularly any of the indexes, then please participate in this poll and provide any relevant comment.

 

[Specterx]

Quote from Arthur Deco:

IMO there is no way to tell if the trend you just detected will continue until AFTER it starts to retrace and reaches a critical point in that retrace. While it's runnin' you know nuthin' but that it's runnin'.

I think this is a pretty good summary of it all.

You can manage risk/lock in profits by scaling out, trailing stop, take an educated guess as to where price may halt (prior S or R) and kill everything there, or wait for a confirmed reversal formation. But that's about as much as you can do.