No. Markets are an expression and reflection of human behavior. Human behavior doesn't necessarily correspond with the arithmetic mating habits of bunnies, or the shape of seashells or your ear, or whatever else the Fibonacci mystics are attributing to the "golden mean" or whatever.
POLL: Are Fibonacci numbers a worthless or expensive crutch when it comes to trading?
- Thread starter Thunderdog
- Start date
Any retracement less than 100% is better than a retracement exceeding 100%, all else being equal (i.e., higher low or lower high). It happens if and when it happens. Fibonacci lottery numbers are no better at predicting where a price will turn than any other guess. Unless I am grossly mistaken, the trick is not to predict where the market will turn, but to game the market in the moment based on predefined and tested criteria. At least that's how I go about it. But maybe that's just me.
There is no difference AT ALL as human behavior is life expressing itself and that is why you are missing the whole point. Oh well, I tried.
Sure. Human behavior is but a simple and predefined wave pattern. That's both shallow and deep at the same time. Either way, I'm glad I didn't step in it.
The most elegant and complex systems also happen to be the most simple ones. I guess you still don't get that. Good luck but I am just wasting my time now.
Please stop with the pretension. You do realize, of course, that an ouce of pretension is worth a pound of manure.
I agree that simple is elegant. But it is only elegant when it's not naive.
P.S. I agree that you are wasting your time. We just don't agree on why that is.
Do you know any "matron stocks" dancing on the table right now?
Fibs are my most important tools in trading, next to my computer of course. i dont know how anyone could trade without them or think they are worthless. for people who think that they are just a bunch of useless numbers they are just not in the know. i have hundreds of charts where stocks and futures mysteriously are drawn to and pivot on, alot of times to the penny. i cant explain how this works, i just know that it does work and that is good enough for me. fib retracements are huge alone, once you find a cluster of retracements that is a nice sign that the stock has the potential to turn there. if you throw a fib extension and it lands at the retracement you also have a higher probability of price reaching that level and pivoting. its all tools to help you in trading, nothing works 100% of the time or else we would all be rich and we wouldnt be in this forum! me personally, i just use fibs, a few timing methods, price, one indicator which defines trends and a plain and simple macd. indicators can be too subjective and they are all basically the same thing, just a moving average of a moving average. they ALL are lagging, the only non lagging indicator is a histogram. and if you have fib clusters near a histogram cluster you have a very high probable trade. im not going to get into timing because is too complex and thats a whole other blog itself...the first chart is the night before the move, i IM'd a friend and we caught the huge rally in the ES. the first chart will show based off price and time...the second is a 5min chart of the same move. the next is a 50% retracement of the down move and at a 4.2extension. and some say fibs dont work...